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Tesla (TSLA) released its fourth-quarter earnings yesterday, Jan. 29. The company missed both the top-line and bottom-line estimates in the quarter, and the commentary on its short-term outlook wasn’t particularly convincing. However, management shared upbeat commentary on the company’s long-term forecast, and Elon Musk reiterated that Tesla could become the world’s largest company.
Usually, the title of the “world’s largest” has stayed with the same company for an elongated period before a challenger decisively beats them. However, it has been a game of musical chairs at the top since last year and Apple (AAPL), Nvidia (NVDA), and Microsoft (MSFT) have been jostling for the position. While the title currently rests with Apple, the position seems relatively open for the taking.
Musk Believes Tesla Could Become the World’s Largest Company
Early in his comments during the Q4 earnings call, Musk said that he sees Tesla one day becoming the most valuable company globally. “There is a path where Tesla is worth more than the next top 5 companies combined,” stressed the Tesla CEO.
To be sure, it is not the first time that Musk has touted the possibility of Tesla becoming the world’s largest company. During the company's Q3 2022 earnings call, Musk said Tesla could be worth more than the combined value of Apple and Saudi Aramco. He did admit that it would be “difficult” and “will require a lot of work, some very creative new products, manage[d] expansion, and always luck.” Incidentally, back then, Tesla’s bullish thesis was primarily based on its advancements in autonomous driving and related products like the robotaxi. Since then, artificial intelligence (AI) has come into the picture, and Tesla is among the leading AI plays.
AI Products Could Drive Value for Tesla
At Tesla’s shareholder meeting last year, Musk said that the company’s Optimus humanoid could add $25 trillion to its market cap. The world’s richest person reiterated his optimism about Optimus during the Q4 earnings call and termed it a $10 trillion revenue opportunity. To be sure, Musk’s optimism should always be taken with a pinch of salt. The company has officially withdrawn the 20 million vehicle production guidance that Musk said it would hit by 2030.
As for fully autonomous cars, the little said the better. During the Q4 earnings call, Musk laughed at his previous “end of the year” predictions related to full autonomy even as he sounded optimistic about releasing unsupervised full self-driving in several U.S. cities this year. A favorable policy environment under President Donald Trump’s administration should help Tesla in testing its robotaxis, a product that’s running late by years as Musk had once promised a million of these by 2020.
Tesla Stock 2030 Forecast
Talking about autonomous cars and the humanoid robots, Musk said that Tesla continues to “lay the groundwork” in 2025 and predicted 2026 to be an “epic” year. He went on to predict 2027 as “ridiculous” and 2028 to be “ridiculously good” for the company while stressing, that “very few people understand the value of self-driving and our ability to monetize the fleet.”
Those in the bullish camp put big numbers to Tesla’s market cap and Wedbush analyst Dan Ives sees the company’s market cap hitting $2 trillion this year. Cathie Wood of ARK Invest – who Musk has said has a better understanding of Tesla’s business – believes the company is the “biggest AI project” globally. Last year, ARK Invest revised its Tesla target price to $2,600, which it expects to be hit by 2029. The firm’s bear case and bull case target prices are $2,000 and $3,100, respectively. Her forecasts – which are invariably among the highest, if not the highest – imply Tesla’s market cap will rise past $7 trillion by 2029.
As for other analysts, the sentiment remains quite divided and the stock’s mean target price is below the current price levels.
What Could Drive Tesla’s Profits?
Tesla’s electric vehicle business alone won't help it become the world’s biggest company. Tesla has always been about products like autonomous driving, robotaxis, and now, the Optimus robot. These are however relatively untested products, and there remains a question mark over their demand and adoption.
However, if Tesla can come anywhere closer to the rosy predictions that Musk has made about these products, Tesla has a real shot at becoming the world’s largest company by 2030.
