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KIT NORTON

Tesla Stock Eyes A New Base As China Vehicle Registrations Still Look Good

Tesla vehicle insurance registrations in China last week dropped a fraction sequentially. Now, eight weeks into the third quarter the global EV giant's registrations in China this year are down slightly less than 2%. Meanwhile, Canada announced Monday 100% tariffs on China-made electric vehicles. TSLA stock fell Tuesday.

Tesla insurance registrations in China totaled 14,200 for the week of Aug. 19-25, down 0.7% from 14,300 the previous week, according to data reported by CnEVPost Tuesday. However, Tesla registrations in China, a rough gauge for deliveries, are up 30% compared to last quarter and have increased 10.3% vs. a year ago.

Tesla's year-to-date China registrations are now down just 1.8% compared to the same time frame in 2023.

While Tesla's vehicle registrations in China fell slightly last week, EV producers in China broadly saw insurance registrations increase, reversing a slow start to the month. Top Tesla competitor BYD had 87,800 insurance registrations last week, up nearly 12% vs. 78,500 the week prior.

BYD plans to release second-quarter earnings and revenue early Wednesday.

Troy Teslike, whose delivery estimates and Tesla data tracking are highly respected among retail Tesla investors, posted to X on Sunday that sales in China compared to Q2 "are great."

"Not so much in the U.S.," Teslike added. "It looks like Tesla is balancing out weaker U.S. sales with stronger sales in China."

Tesla stock dropped 1.9% to 209.21 during market action on Tuesday. Shares dropped 3.2% to 213.21 on Monday. The stock is down more than 8% in August.

On Monday, Canada's Finance Ministry announced a 100% tariff on China-made electric cars. This comes after President Joe Biden slapped similar tariffs on China in May. The European Union has also imposed import tariffs on China-made cars ranging from about 20%-40%.

Tesla typically ships China-made vehicles from its Shanghai factory for sale in Canada. The new tariffs mean the EV giant would have export from the U.S. to Canada if it doesn't want to get slapped with higher prices.

Tesla Stock Performance

Tesla stock is down around 14% in 2024, but has rebounded about 60% from a late-April low amid some steep ups and downs.

Shares rallied onto positive ground for the year in mid-July, then rolled over into a five-week slide. Now two weeks into an attempt to climb out of that ditch, the stock has regained support above the 200-day line, but is struggling to hold support at its 50-day moving average, according to MarketSurge charts.

A strong move off the 50-day line could offer an early entry for aggressive investors, perhaps using the Aug. 20 high of 228.22 as a specific trigger. That would also move TSLA up the right side of new base, which has a 271 buy point, though the stock is near the bottom of the consolidations.

Tesla stock ranks third in the 35-member IBD Auto Manufacturers industry group. The stock has a 55 Composite Rating out of a best-possible 99. Shares also have a 48 Relative Strength Rating and a 57 EPS Rating.

Please follow Kit Norton on X @KitNorton for more coverage.

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