Tesla (TSLA) shares fell sharply Tuesday, extending their 2024 slump to around $270 billion, after the world's leading EV maker posted a much weaker-than-expected tally of first-quarter deliveries.
Tesla delivered 386,810 new cars over the three months ended in March, the company said in a statement, down 8.5% from the year-earlier period and 20% south of the record 484,507 tally reached over the three months ended in December.
Analysts' forecasts for deliveries ranged from 425,000 to around 470,000, with LSEG data pegging the March-quarter target at around 455,000 units.
Tesla delivered 369,783 units of its Model 3 sedan and Model Y midsize SUV, as well as 17,027 units of its higher-priced Model S sedan and Model X full-size SUV, the report indicated.
Production fell 6.5% to 412,376 vehicles as supply-chain disruptions tied to attacks in the Red Sea and closures at its Berlin factory trimmed output. Model 3/Y production was pegged at 421,371 units with Model S/X and "other model" production at 20,995 units.
$TSLA (-7% pre-mkt) delivered 386.8K vehicles in 1Q -8.5% YoY and it’s first YoY decline since Covid in 2020 2Q. This was far below consensus 1Q of 431K. We expect analysts to reduce vol and eps estimates for FY’24. This will renew the narrative about TSLA’s 60x 2024 P/E with… pic.twitter.com/uoRc39z1uR
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) April 2, 2024
"Decline in volumes was partially due to the early phase of the production ramp of the updated Model 3 at our Fremont factory and factory shutdowns resulting from shipping diversions caused by the Red Sea conflict and an arson attack at Gigafactory Berlin," Tesla said in a statement.
Tesla shares were marked 5.1% lower in early Tuesday trading immediately following the delivery data to change hands at $166.74 each, near to the lowest since the spring of last year and a move that extends the stock's year-to-date decline to around 33%.
"While we were anticipating a bad first quarter, this was an unmitigated disaster 1Q that is hard to explain away," said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who held his $300 price target and 'overweight' rating in place following the delivery data.
"We view this as a seminal moment in the Tesla story for Musk to either turn this around and reverse the black eye performance," he added. "Otherwise, some darker days could clearly be ahead that could disrupt the long-term Tesla narrative."
Tesla itself warned investors in January that vehicle-delivery growth rates would be "notably lower" than 2023 levels, while CEO Elon Musk said profit margins would improve only on the back of central-bank interest-rate cuts.
Tesla's profit margins, probably the most closely tracked metric by analysts on Wall Street, narrowed to 17.6% over the three months ended in December, down from a 23.8% margin over the year-earlier period.
Weaker-than-expected sales figures from China, where volumes fell to the lowest levels in more than a year last month, are also adding to overall pressures on Tesla's aggressive delivery targets.
Tesla is slated to report first-quarter earnings on April 23.
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