Two consecutive quarters of decreasing Tesla electric deliveries, and the rise of many EV competitors, are already reflected in the company's weakening global market share.
According to the industry data highlighted by Tesla in its Q2 financial report, the brand's market share has slightly decreased in Europe and China, and barely remained stable in the United States and Canada, which are counted together.
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Tesla EV sales decreased in H1 2024
During the first half of the year, Tesla delivered 830,766 all-electric vehicles (globally). That's 6.6% less than a year earlier, despite that the EV segment is expanding.
If we take a look at the chart below, it turns out that Tesla's share of the total new car market in the United States and Canada remains below 4%—probably around 3.8%.
In Europe, the weakening is now clear as the share moves down towards 2.5%. In China, the decrease is slower than in Europe, but if nothing changes, Tesla might fall to 2% later this year.
The only proven way to return on the path of growth would be to increase EV sales (and outpace the market), but the first two quarters were negative. Despite the Cybertruck being possibly America's top-selling electric pickup truck, it cannot make up for the droves of people buying EVs from other brands—often for the first time. Many are offering new models in new segments, like the three-row Kia EV9, while Tesla's lineup has become increasingly stagnant.
Tesla said in its Q2 report that it expects a sequential increase in production in Q3, although it does not automatically mean an increase in sales, especially year-over-year.
Tesla basically repeated its previous explanation: "Our company is currently between two major growth waves: the first one began with the global expansion of the Model 3/Y platform and we believe the next one will be initiated by advances in autonomy and introduction of new products, including those built on our next generation vehicle platform. In 2024, our vehicle volume growth rate may be notably lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023, as our teams work on the launch of the next generation vehicle and other products"
The most important thing for the future appears to be the promised launch of more affordable models, which could be sold in a higher volume. However, the start of production of these new EVs is planned for the first half of 2025, so even the initial low-scale production is up to about a year from now.
