I find it especially interesting that when I woke up this morning, made the coffee and started scanning for news items to put into today's Critical Materials roundup about the upcoming Tesla Robotaxi Day event, what I found is that most of those stories are from financial outlets. Business publications, investor advice publications, plus a couple of Tesla fansites—but not so much technology or automotive outlets. Not yet, anyway, but we'll see how the week shakes out.
So here's what we, as a technology and automotive outlet that aims to be smarter and more skeptical than most, plan to ask this week: is this for real, or is it just for Tesla's stock price?
Also in this Monday edition of the roundup, we'll cover the latest and perhaps saddest allegations in the story of Fisker's ongoing demise, and more from Volkswagen's top boss about an "if you can't beat 'em, join 'em" approach to dealing with ultra-competitive Chinese automakers in Europe. Let's go.
30%: What To Expect From Tesla's 'We, Robot' Event This Week
To answer the question above: in typical Tesla fashion, we don't know yet. What we do know is that this will be a publicly streamed but invite-only event at a Warner Bros. studio in Burbank, California, and most everyone is expecting a demonstration of the supposed fully autonomous driving technology that CEO Elon Musk has been hyping for years—especially so over the past few months.
As a quick recap: aside from the Cybertruck, both Musk and current and former Tesla officials have made clear that the company's focus is less on new EV models and more on delivering truly autonomous cars. Musk has said that "solving" the riddle of driverless cars, along with delivering advanced AI products and robotics, should put Tesla's valuation into the trillions. (Maybe even half the value of the S&P 500. The sky is the limit, right?) That's why you're seeing so much investor coverage of this event. People want to know where to place their bets.
But as has been covered extensively here and in other places, Musk's claims about autonomy and the realities of "self-driving cars" are oceans apart. No car that can be purchased today is capable of "driving itself," only offering automated features to assist a human who's paying close attention behind the wheel. Tesla's Full Self-Driving and Autopilot systems are still facing a number of investigations, including a criminal one that could be tied to misleading investors and consumers, and countless questions remain about the regulatory and insurance aspects of such a vehicle—not to mention how Tesla plans to set up some kind of Robotaxi service akin to Uber.
Or something. I suppose we'll find out this week. Maybe.
So when we talk about the future of Tesla, there are indeed two sides to this: the actual product and service delivery side, and what it means for the company's sky-high stock valuation, which is what props up most of Musk's wealth.
Here are some highlights from Al Root over at Barron's (subscription required):
Musk will have some convincing to do on Oct. 10. While competitors use laser-based radar, ultrasound, and optical cameras for their self-driving vehicles, Musk believes all that is needed are optical cameras and a neural network—that is, eyes and a big brain, with Tesla’s artificial-intelligence computers acting as driving instructors, building computer code as they receive data from Tesla vehicles on the road.
Still, investors can expect Musk to exude confidence that the technology will work, even if it’s different from that used by his competitors. “I recommend anyone who doesn’t believe that Tesla will solve vehicle autonomy should not hold Tesla stock,” he said in July. It wouldn’t be a surprise to hear Musk say something similar on Thursday.
Expectations are still sky-high. Coming into the week, Tesla stock had gained almost 50% since Musk announced Tesla’s Robotaxi Day on April 5, helping to arrest a slide that had seen shares slump some 35% to start the year. Meeting expectations will require, at minimum, a physical robo-taxi, a plan to launch unsupervised service no later than 2026, and an explanation of how Tesla will make money from its self-driving cabs.
The excitement isn’t only about the robo-taxi. A growing number of observers expect Musk to also have news on a low-price car known as the Model 2. A lower-price Tesla, starting with a price under $30,000, would help kick-start sales again while expanding the company’s addressable market. “I think we’ll see the Model 2,” Baird analyst Ben Kallo says.
You'd think any Tesla announcement would triple the stock price. And yet, that's far less the case than it used to be:
Tesla doesn’t have a solid record of delivering on high expectations at these kinds of events. For every successful presentation—the stock rose 12% in the days after the March 2016 unveiling of the Model 3, the first truly popular mass-market all-EV that people around the globe wanted to drive—others have resulted in disappointment. Tesla stock dropped 16% in the days following Tesla’s 2022 AI event, which included a working prototype of a humanoid robot. Tesla’s first AI event in 2021 featured a person dancing in a robot suit.
“I would not be surprised, and fully expect, the stock to pull back on the event,” says William Blair analyst Jed Dorsheimer, who rates Tesla stock a Buy. “The trend for most of Tesla’s analyst days/big announcements is the stock runs into those as expectations rise…then there is a disappointment.”
And as that story notes, Tesla needs a win here. Its inability to keep its market share growing as competitors step up (and as prospective and current Tesla owners take issue with Musk's new full-blown MAGA vibes) has investors concerned too. It's also hardly the only name in the self-driving tech game, as we'll explore more this week.
But I've covered lots of these events before. You get a lot of flashy stuff, a lot of big claims and promises, and then some percentage of it becomes true, albeit years later in many cases. We'll find out soon if this one can be any different.
60%: Fisker's Former HQ Is A Looming Environmental Disaster, Lawsuit Alleges
This is easy to forget now amid Fisker Inc.'s collapse, but it was once supposed to be "the world's most sustainable vehicle." According to a new lawsuit from the landlord of Fisker's former California HQ, that's definitely not how things ended up at the facility itself. Here's TechCrunch with the scoop:
The headquarters Fisker used in its waning days was recently abandoned and left in “complete disarray,” with drums of apparent hazardous waste, automotive equipment, and even vehicles and full-size clay models left behind, according to the landlord.
The chaos was described in a new filing that was submitted to Fisker’s Chapter 11 bankruptcy docket Friday afternoon by landlord Shamrock (La Palma) Properties II, LLC. Tony Lenzini, a representative for Shamrock, said in an attached declaration that the landlord “now faces tens of thousands of dollars in cleanup costs, damage repairs, and what appears to me to be hazardous waste removal.”
And yet, Lenzini says, the La Palma facility “has been left in complete disarray.” He says there are two 50- to 55-gallon drums, one which references containing oil and another which says contains coolant. He says there are “approximately 20 automotive-sized batteries” left on site, too. It isn’t clear if those are electric vehicle battery packs or more typical 12-volt car batteries. Lawyers for Shamrock wrote that Fisker vehicles “were left parked” in the lot outside the facility, but did not specify if they are Ocean SUVs.
“My concern is that I do not know what chemicals have been left at La Palma,” Lenzini writes.
This is just sad. So are the pictures at the link.
90%: VW CEO Says China's Automakers Should Get A Tariff Pass If They Invest In Europe
One story we've followed closely this year is the existential struggle facing the European automakers. Low demand for new cars, labor woes, the evaporation of EV demand after subsidies were canceled and intense competition from Chinese newcomers all make it a bad time to be running a company like Stellantis or Volkswagen.
The CEO of the latter firm, Oliver Blume, has an interesting idea as the European Union grapples with how to do anti-China tariffs. Here's Reuters:
The CEO of German carmaker Volkswagen said the European Union should consider adjusting planned tariffs against China-made electric vehicles to make allowances for investments made in Europe.
"Instead of punitive tariffs this should be about mutually giving credit for investments. Those who invest, create jobs and work with local companies should benefit when it comes to tariffs," VW CEO Oliver Blume told Sunday paper Bild am Sonntag an interview.
On its face, it sounds counterproductive to roll out the welcome mat to new competitors. But Blume may be onto something here.
If these cars are built in Europe, with European labor, that may erase some of the unfair price differences between those cars and ones made with ultra-low-cost Chinese labor. It would prop up Europe's auto industry with new jobs and allow for the kinds of team-ups that those automakers increasingly want with China. You may remember that Germany, actually, wasn't thrilled with the idea of stiff anti-China tariffs; its automakers need to sell cars in that country and they have various tie-ups at risk if China doesn't want to play ball.
If you can't beat 'em, join 'em. Or have them join you.
100%: What Do You Want To See From The Tesla Robotaxi Event?
What are your predictions for Thursday's event and what must be done to prove the doubters wrong? And is that even possible?
Contact the author: patrick.george@insideevs.com
