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KIT NORTON

Autonomous Driving And Other Keys That Could Move Tesla Stock On Earnings

Tesla reports fourth-quarter earnings and revenue on Wednesday and while the EV giant's profit and delivery guidance will be important for investors, so too are several key timelines for products Chief Executive Elon Musk has stressed as integral to Tesla's future.

The basics are that after the market closes on Jan. 29, Tesla announces its Q4 financials. Analysts predict Q4 EPS growing 8% to 77 cents with revenue totaling $27.22 billion, up 8% compared to Q4 2023. Meanwhile for 2025, current consensus has Tesla profit returning to year-over-year growth, after the expected dip for 2024.

However, how Tesla does in relation to these estimates may not move TSLA all that much after the EV giant already reported record fourth-quarter deliveries on Jan. 2, but with the number coming in below analyst expectations as the company failed to hit its target of annual vehicle unit growth compared to 2023.

Instead, investors will be looking for 2025 delivery guidance, for information on whether Tesla's long-awaited "affordable" vehicle will still start production in the first half of the year, whether fully autonomous self-driving remains on track for California and Texas by mid-2025, and on the timeline for the much-touted Optimus humanoid robot.

TSLA fell 2.6% to 386.80 during market action on Tuesday after dipping 2.3% to 397.15 on Monday. Last week, Tesla launched the new Model Y in the U.S. and Europe, after being unveiled in China earlier this month.

The stock fell more than 4% last week and is now down 1.7% in January.

How To Buy Stocks

Delivery Guidance For 2025

Musk proclaimed on the Q3 earnings call that vehicle sales could grow "20%-30%" in 2025. However, with President Donald Trump expected to discontinue the $7,500 EV consumer tax credit from the Inflation Reduction Act, or IRA, it remains to be seen if that unit delivery growth is achievable.

If the IRA tax credits are stripped away, it could hit Tesla's auto business. The EV giant has already slashed prices repeatedly over the past year to drum up consumer interest amid waning demand.

Musk has appeared to support doing away with government incentives for clean-energy industries.

Analysts are pegging 2025 delivery numbers at 2.08 million, according to FactSet. This would represent 15% growth compared to 2024, but still well below Musk's 2025 forecast from the beginning of Q4.

Troy Teslike, whose delivery estimates and Tesla data tracking are highly respected among retail Tesla investors, on Jan. 24 posted to X he believes 1.8 million deliveries is "realistic" while 1.9 million is "very optimistic" for 2025.

Meanwhile, Tesla produced 459,445 vehicles in Q4 and delivered 495,570 units globally. The company delivered 1.789 million vehicles while producing 1.773 million units in 2024 — an increase of not quite 1%. Tesla had said it expected "slight" vehicle delivery growth in 2024 after the company saw vehicle deliveries rise 38% to 1.81 million in 2023.

However, unit sales lagged in the U.S. and Europe last year, with Tesla looking for solutions to drum up demand, offering various discounts and incentives to boost demand. Meanwhile, China has been particularly strong in Q4.

"The miss reflects a relatively aged product and increased availability of lower priced competition globally ahead of the hyped introduction of the cheaper new model (Juniper) in early/mid-2025, which more than offset pre-buy and promotional forces," Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas wrote following the report.

Is The Affordable Vehicle Finally Coming?

As Jonas noted, the long-awaited "cheaper" Tesla model vehicle is expected sometime in the first half of 2025. However, that could change as the new vehicle release has long been speculated about.

Tesla at the beginning of Q4 said plans for new vehicles, including more affordable models, remain on track for start of production in the first half of 2025.

The price tag on the vehicle is also as of yet unclear. Musk said on the third-quarter earnings call that the upcoming "affordable" EV will cost less than $30,000, "with incentives." Where the price will land if the IRA tax credit is repealed by Trump remains in question.

Tesla Earnings Unexpectedly Rise 9% In Q3, Elon Musk Bullish

Read more on Tesla second-quarter earnings or on the company's first-quarter report.

Tesla: Self Driving Coming This Year?

Musk has said he expects Tesla's full self-driving, or FSD, to achieve true self-driving by mid-2025, though he's said similar "this year" or "next year" statements for about a decade.

Musk on the third-quarter earnings call said he expects "fully autonomous unsupervised FSD in California and Texas next year — that's with the Model 3 and Model Y." However, Musk admitted that he tends to be a "little optimistic with time frames."

Any update on the Q4 call on the timeline for fully unsupervised self-driving will be key for investors as Tesla stock has mainly jumped higher in recent months on the belief that President Donald Trump will ease regulations for autonomous vehicles. Musk is currently a big supporter of the president and a de facto member of the administration.

The Tesla Cybercab, or robotaxi, also depends on actual unsupervised self-driving. That means this timeline is the key to Tesla stock value.

On Wednesday, Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, a longtime Tesla bull, raised his TSLA price target to 550 from 515, based on "growing confidence in the demand delivery story for 2025 along with a fast tracking of the autonomous future under the Trump Administration."

"The autonomous fast tracking will be front and center for investors as many of the 2026/2027 goals for Tesla could be accelerated to stay on track with the China timeline for autonomous currently underway," Ives wrote.

The analyst added that with Trump in the White House, the autonomous/FSD timeline is "likely accelerated starting in 2025 and a major tailwind for Cybercab timing."

New Tesla Model Y Launches In U.S., Europe

Optimus Robot: When Is It Actually Coming?

The Optimus robot timelines have been fuzzy at best and nonexistent at worst. So any details on the humanoid on the Q4 call will be noteworthy.

In November, Musk posted to X that Optimus is "already doing some tasks in the factory and the scope of its ability is increasing rapidly."

"The toughest part by far is improving the design of Optimus for ease of manufacturing and tooling up a complex supply chain, so it can be made in significant numbers," Musk wrote on Nov. 7, 2024.

Based on that information, it seems unlikely investors will get any concrete timeline on production for Optimus on the Q4 call.

At the "We Robot" event on Oct. 10, Musk showed off the Cybercab, a Robovan and dancing Optimus robots.

Tesla Robotaxi Event: Cybercab, Robovan Unveiled; Musk Sees Self-Driving 'Next Year'

At the time, Musk said he expects the Cybercab price tag will be below $30,000, with production starting "before 2027." The Tesla chief also said the Optimus cost could be $25,000-$30,000 when produced at scale.

Optimus, like the Cybercab, depends on Tesla cracking fully unsupervised automation.

Tesla Stock Performance

Tesla stock has a new base with a traditional 488.54 buy point, the record high from Dec. 18, according to MarketSurge charts. The stock slid 4.7% last week, undercutting the 21-day line but held the 10-week line.

TSLA shares angled 2% lower to 415.11 on Wednesday, offering aggressive investors a possible downtrend entry. Investors could also use the Jan. 17 intraday high of 439.74 as a potential entry point.

The Jan. 17 high would mark an early entry in a 'too-low' handle. That would add some risk to any possible breakout, and investors should be aware the stock could also make volatile moves around earnings.

TSLA stock is on the IBD Leaderboard watchlist.

The stock is down slightly in January, slowing down its growth after a scorching hot fourth quarter where Tesla stock gained most of its 63% advance for 2024, especially after Trump's election win.

Tesla stock ranks first in the 35-stock IBD Auto Manufacturers industry group. The stock has a 92 Composite Rating out of a best-possible 99. Shares also have a 97 Relative Strength Rating and a 77 EPS Rating.

Please follow Kit Norton on X @KitNorton for more coverage.

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