Tesla reported first-quarter vehicle deliveries of 336,681 before Wednesday's stock market open Wednesday. That was worse than analyst forecasts and the worst showing in more than two years.
Tesla stock fell early before advancing during Wednesday's stock market action.
The EV giant also released electric vehicle production numbers along with energy storage deployed data around 9 a.m. ET.
4:03 p.m. ET
EPS Expectations Already Coming Down
Analyst consensus for Tesla Q1 earnings fell 1-cent to 47 cents per share on Wednesday, according to FactSet. The Sharp Consensus for revenue is now at $22.407 billion, down around 1% compared to Monday.
For the full year, analyst consensus has Tesla earning $2.72 per share, down from the $2.74 expectation on Monday. The EV giant is also now expected to deliver $1.904 million vehicles in 2025, down 1% vs. the Monday consensus. The 2025 revenue view also declined on Wednesday to $109.501 billion from the previous $109.819 billion expectation.
Analysts had already been trimming Q1 and full-year earnings estimates prior to Tesla's Q1 delivery numbers, according to FactSet.
Tesla stock fell as low as 251.27 early Wednesday but shook off those losses and gained 5.3% to 282.67 during stock market action. TSLA closed just below its 200-day line and is now up 7.3% on the week.
11:40 a.m. ET
Tesla Stock Moves Higher
TSLA shares are now moving higher, jumping 4% to 279.33 after dropping as low as 251.27 earlier during Wednesday's stock market trade.
Politico reported Wednesday that Musk may be leaving his position at DOGE "in the coming weeks."
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 rose 0.4% in late morning trade, gapping down more than 1% at the open. The S&P 500 index is trading between Monday's six-month lows and the 200-day moving average.
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11:05 a.m. ET
Adam Jonas On Tesla Deliveries
Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas wrote Wednesday that "the ability for TSLA shares to outperform despite falling estimates will be 'put to the test' this June in Austin." Jonas is referring to Musk's expectation to launch the robotaxi in Texas this summer.
Jonas wrote that the firm's overweight rating is underpinned by the belief that Tesla's capabilities in key areas of physical AI, like autonomous vehicles and humanoid robots, "offer growth and margin opportunities that greatly exceed those of the traditional EV business which is under pressure."
"Put another way, we believe the challenges facing Tesla's current business are widely reported and well known, while the opportunities in the future business are potentially greatly underestimated," Jonas said.
Tesla stock pared early losses, falling 1% to 265.60 Wednesday. Earlier in the day, TSLA fell as low as 251.27.
10:10 a.m. ET
Tesla Stock Tries To Go Positive
TSLA, after sinking at the stock market open, is down 2%.
Cantor Fitzgerald analysts write that Tesla's Q1 sales were affected by weak demand in Europe and Musk's "polarizing politics, among other reasons."
Meanwhile, Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan wrote early Wednesday that Tesla's delivery numbers were a "big bust."
Langan expects the shares to trade down as "deteriorating fundamentals continue to take the spotlight."
William Blair analyst Jed Dorsheimer mused Wednesday that the unit volume split between the Model Y and the Model 3 is a "key insight to determine if the shortfall was more a supply or demand issue."
"The strong response to Elon Musk's foray into politics with vandalism of Tesla stores and cars make us believe it is both," Dorsheimer wrote.
The analyst added that Tesla stock is "trading down slightly, suggesting that the miss was already in the stock."
"The question is, will the miss be enough of a clearing event to fully reset expectations? We view the stock in no man's land as it fights with lower auto volumes ahead of catalysts like the Model 2, robotaxi, and Megapack growth this year that could bring momentum back into the name," Dorsheimer said.
9:58 a.m. ET
Analyst Reaction: Tesla Stock
Tesla stock is down 2.4% to 261.60, trading in above-average volume. The stock fell as low as 251.27 early.
RBC Capital analysts wrote Wednesday that Q1 was "always going to be down." The firm said Wednesday that it expected March to see some Tesla demand pull forward ahead of Trump's April 2 tariffs, but that it appears the Tesla U.S. delivery number for March might have been similar to January and February.
The analysts believe TSLA should trade lower, but the impact could be "somewhat muted," given the Q1 dynamics and the strong energy storage posting.
Barclays analyst Dan Levy wrote on Wednesday that the "weak" Q1 sets up a "challenging path" for even flat year-over-year volume in 2025 for Tesla. The analyst is keeping an equal weight rating on Tesla stock with a 325 price target.
9:45 a.m. ET
Tesla Deliveries Aftermath
Now that Q1 delivery data is out, the attention turns to April 22 when the EV giant reports first-quarter earnings and revenue. The delivery miss will most likely be bad for Tesla margins. It remains to be seen what Tesla will report for Q1 EV credit revenue.
Analysts will likely be revising Q1 and full-year estimates in the coming days. It's worth noting that Chief Executive Elon Musk on the Q4 earnings call appeared to signal that 2025 could be a middling year, with only slight vehicle sales growth.
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Prior to Wednesday's delivery release, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, another Tesla bull, cut his Tesla stock price target to 410 from 430, but maintained an overweight rating. Most of Jonas' commentary was on falling vehicle deliveries.
At the time, Jonas wrote that Tesla's "softer auto deliveries are emblematic of a company in the transition from an automotive 'pure play' to a highly diversified play on AI and robotics."
9:32 a.m. ET
At The Stock Market Open
Tesla stock dips 6% to 252.25 as the stock market opens.
Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, a longtime Tesla bull, wrote Wednesday following the release that with the "current headwinds for TSLA across the industry including protests at Tesla dealerships, violence seen at TSLA drivers around the country/Europe, and more Musk-related brand worries, this delivery number was a disaster for the bulls with continuous negativity around the TSLA brand."
"We are not going to look at these numbers with rose colored glasses...they were a disaster on every metric," Ives said.
Ives added that the "time has come for Musk."
"The more political he gets with DOGE the more the brand suffers, there is no debate. This quarter was an example of the damage Musk is causing Tesla," the analyst wrote.
9:13 a.m. ET
Tesla Stock Falls
Tesla stock fell 4.3% before Wednesday's market open.
9:11 a.m. ET
Tesla produced 362,615 vehicles in the quarter, with the bulk being Model 3 and Model Y vehicles. The company produced 17,161 "other models." Overall production fell 16% vs. a year earlier, when the EV giant produced 433,371 EVs.
But production exceeding deliveries suggest that limited supply from the Model Y changeover may not have been a big factor, though some of the unsold vehicles were for other models.
9:07 a.m. ET
Tesla Energy Deployed
Meanwhile, Tesla deployed 10.4 gigawatt hours of of energy storage products in Q1, marking a 156% increase vs. Q1 2024. But that was down slightly vs. 11 GWh of energy storage in Q4.
9:06 a.m. ET
Tesla Blames Model Y Changeover
Tesla reported that "while the changeover of Model Y lines across all four of our factories led to the loss of several weeks of production in Q1, the ramp of the New Model Y continues to go well."
9:05 a.m. ET
Delivery Breakdown
Model Y and Model 3 vehicle sales totaled 323,800 units in Q1 while "other models" tallied 12,881 for the quarter. The other models include the Cybertruck, the Model X and the Model S.
9:03 a.m. ET
Tesla Deliveries
Tesla delivered 336,681 vehicles in Q1, down 13% compared to a year ago and the worst quarterly performance since Q2 2022.
8:57 a.m. ET
Rivian Deliveries
Also before the open, Rivian reported it delivered 8,640 vehicles in Q1 and produced 14,611 vehicles. A year ago, the Irvine, Calif.,-based company delivered 13,588 while it produced 13,980. The company also reaffirmed its 2025 delivery range guidance of 46,000-51,000 vehicles.
Rivian stock fell modestly early Wednesday.
Tesla Delivery Estimates Fall
Tesla is expected to deliver 377,592 EVs in Q1, according to the company-compiled consensus of analysts, down slightly vs. 386,810 a year earlier and the lowest since Q3 2022.
The FactSet analyst consensus sits at 407,900 even as the most timely delivery estimates are between 315,000-369,000. Troy Teslike, whose delivery estimates and Tesla data tracking are closely watched among retail Tesla investors, on Monday posted to X he believes Tesla deliveries will total 355,000 in Q1.
Tesla vehicle sales have been weak in the U.S. and especially Europe, amid public backlash to Chief Executive Elon Musk's political involvement and work with President Donald Trump. The company also rolled out its refreshed version of its bestselling vehicle, the Model Y, late in Q1.
Tesla Rivals BYD, XPeng, Xiaomi Report Surging Deliveries
Meanwhile, Tesla demand appears to be holding up in China. On Tuesday, Tesla's weekly China EV registrations came in strong, suggesting Q1 local deliveries rose 2% vs. a year earlier. But China EV rivals are growing significantly faster than Tesla China's local sales.
Q1 Deliveries: Key Takeaways
While analysts already expect an underwhelming first quarter, the key to Wednesday's release could be full-year delivery and earnings revisions.
Analysts have already been trimming Q1 and full-year earnings estimates, according to FactSet. FactSet's current consensus pegs first-quarter earnings rising 7% to 48 cents. That's down from 57 cents at the end of January and 74 cents at the end of last year. For the full year, FactSet pegs Tesla EPS increasing 13% to $2.74, down from $3.31 just before the Q4 earnings report in late January.
For 2025, analysts predict Tesla vehicle deliveries to increase 7% to 1.92 million units, but with more recent forecasts targeting flat to lower sales for the year. Teslike on March 23 posted to X he believes Tesla will deliver less than 1.68 million vehicles in 2025. That would be at least a 6% drop compared to the 1.79 million vehicles delivered in 2024, which was a slight decline vs. 2023.
Tesla Stock Performance
TSLA fell 2.5% before the opening bell for Wednesday's stock market action. On Tuesday, Tesla stock advanced 3.6% to 268.46, but came off highs.
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Shares jumped 6% last week, snapping a nine-week losing streak, but resistance at the 200-day moving average. Tesla stock has rebounded from its March 11 low of 217.02. Entering Wednesday's stock market open, TSLA is up around 24% since hitting its March low.
The stock is still well below its 50-day line. Investors should generally avoid stocks below the 200-day or even their 50-day lines.
The EV giant went into Wednesday's stock market trade down 33.5% so far in 2025, making it one of the worst performers in the S&P 500 this year.
Tesla stock has a 21-day average true range of 7.34%. The ATR metric is available on IBD's MarketSurge charting tool. It gauges the characteristic breadth of a stock's behavior. Stocks that tend to make large jumps or dives in daily action, the kind that can trigger sell rules and shake investors out of a stock, have a high ATR. Stocks that tend to make more incremental moves have lower ATRs.
In the current market, IBD suggests stocks with ATRs of 3% or below.
Tesla stock ranks fourth in the 35-stock IBD Auto Manufacturers industry group. The stock has a 69 Composite Rating out of a best-possible 99. Shares also have a 74 Relative Strength Rating and an 84 EPS Rating.
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