Tesla vehicle insurance registrations in China last week slumped sequentially as many China EV makers saw registrations slip to begin the month. Meanwhile, TSLA shares jumped higher Wednesday after trading its 50-day moving average for the first time since May 13 on Tuesday.
Tesla insurance registrations in China totaled 12,00 for for the week of June 3-9, down 21% from 15,200 the previous week, according to data reported by CnEVPost Wednesday. Vehicle registrations in China tend to drop at the beginning of each month before picking up towards end of the month, according to local reports.
Through ten weeks in the second quarter, Tesla China insurance registrations are up around 14% compared to the seasonally slow first quarter but down about 7% vs. the same time frame in 2023.
Meanwhile, Tesla China deliveries in May came in at 72,573, down 6.6% vs. a year earlier and up 16.7% vs. April,
Th U.S. EV company sold 55,215 vehicles in China in May, up 30% vs. May 2023, according to data released Tuesday by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). Tesla sold 15,230 Model 3 vehicles during May in China, marking a 33% year-on-year increase. The company's Model Y deliveries in China jumped 29% in May compared to a year ago.
Overall, Tesla China deliveries in May came in at 72,573, down 6.6% vs. a year earlier and up 16.7% vs. April. That number includes both local sales in China and exports, which have been falling.
Through the end of May in 2024, Tesla China deliveries are down 7.1% compared to the first five months in 2023.
EU China EV Tariffs
On Wednesday, The European Union announced it provisionally will impose additional tariffs of up to 38.1% on Chinese EVs starting in July, on top of the current 10% duties. Specifically, a 17.4% tariff will imposed on EV giant BYD, 20% on Geely, which owns Zeekr and 38.1% on state-owned SAIC.
All three have been "sampled" by the EU. For other automakers, they'll receive an average duty of 21% if they cooperate and 38.1% if they do not.
Tesla, which exports the Model 3 and some Model Y vehicles from its Shanghai plant to Europe, also is affected. It may receive an "individually calculated duty rate" later.
Q2 Delivery Outlook
Analysts predict global Q2 Tesla deliveries will total 444,000 vehicles, according to analyst consensus. That would be down more than 4% compared to last year's 466,140 deliveries. However, it would be a 15% increase compared to Q1.
Tesla hit a record 484,507 deliveries in Q4 2023.
Tesla reported in early April that global first-quarter deliveries totaled 386,810 while it produced 433,371 vehicles. The deliveries included a combined 369,783 Model 3 and Model Y units along with 17,027 "other" vehicles.
Tesla's 386,810 deliveries tally in Q1 undercut even the lowest estimates and marks the lowest quarterly deliveries since 344,000 in Q2 2022. Since then, analysts have been revising lower delivery estimates, but the consensus figure adjusts slowly.
Tesla ended the first quarter with a global vehicle inventory of 28 days, up 87% compared to Q1 2023. Auto gross profit margins, excluding regulatory credits, came in at 16.4%, above expectations of 15.9%.
Chief Executive Elon Musk said on the first-quarter earnings call he expects 2024 vehicle deliveries to grow compared to 2023. The EV giant saw deliveries in 2023 hit a record 1.81 million. However, EV demand appears to be slowing this year.
"We think Q2 will be a lot better," Musk added on the earnings call.
EU Hikes Tariffs By Up To 38% On Chinese EVs, Including Tesla
Tesla Stock Performance
TSLA shares gained 3.9% to 177.25 during market action on Wednesday. Tesla stock dropped 1.8% to 170.66 on Tuesday, falling below its 50-day moving average. That followed a 2% drop on Monday. Prior to this week, Tesla stock had booked three-consecutive weeks closing with a plus/minus 1% spread.
Also, heading into Monday action shares had nine straight days of trading tightly, closing within that 1% range.
Last week, Tesla stock fell 0.3% to 177.48 and shares are now down 4.5% in June.
TSLA declined 2.8% in May and have sunk around 30% so far this year.
However, Tesla has rallied since reporting first-quarter earnings and revenue on April 23, finding support just above its 50-day moving average, according to MarketSurge analysis. On April 22, Tesla stock hit a 52-week low of 138.80.
The EV giant holds its annual shareholder meeting Thursday. Tesla will then report second-quarter earnings in mid-July. The company is expected to unveil its "robotaxi" on August 8.
JPMorgan analysts on Tuesday said they expected Tesla to show off a robotaxi prototype, but actual robotaxi revenues could be years away. That followed discussions with Tesla investor relations team.
Tesla stock ranks seventh in the 35-member IBD Auto Manufacturers industry group. The stock has a weak 44 Composite Rating out of a best-possible 99. Shares have a 14 Relative Strength Rating and a 62 EPS Rating.
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