Tesla vehicle insurance registrations in China made up ground sequentially last week, marking the company's highest weekly total of 2025. The fact that Tesla vehicle insurance registrations in China have continued to increase from week to week since the beginning of March is a possible bright spot for TSLA investors in what is expected to be a down quarter for global vehicle deliveries.
Tesla insurance registrations in China totaled around 17,000 for the week of March 17-23, up about 11% from 15,300 the previous week, according to data compiled by independent China auto industry trackers.
Twelve weeks into Q1, Tesla registrations in China, a rough gauge for deliveries, are down more than 30% compared to last quarter and have dropped less than 1% vs. a year ago. Beginning in the last week of February into early March, Tesla China insurance registrations increased each week, likely reflecting demand for the refreshed Model Y.
The EV giant is expected to report global first-quarter vehicle deliveries on April 2 with earnings and revenue coming at the end of April.
Earnings/Delivery Consensus Falling
Analysts have been revising Q1 and full-year earnings estimates, according to FactSet. FactSet's current Sharp Consensus predicts first-quarter earnings down 2% to 49 cents per share. The Sharp Consensus view has dropped 7% since the end of January.
The company is also expected to see Q1 vehicle deliveries increase 7% to 417,000 as of Tuesday estimates, which have declined 7% since Jan. 31. However, the most timely delivery estimates are around 358,000 to 378,000, which would be below Q1 2024's 386,810.
Troy Teslike, whose delivery estimates and Tesla data tracking are highly respected among retail Tesla investors, on Sunday posted to X he believes Tesla will deliver less than 1.68 million vehicles in 2025.
"The company is now struggling to regain its momentum due to shifting brand perception in Western markets and increasing competition in China," Teslike wrote.
The New York Post reported Monday the FBI has put together a task force to look into attacks against Tesla. The FBI confirmed the story amid reports that multiple incendiary devices were discovered at a Tesla showroom in Austin, Texas.
"The FBI has launched a Task Force in conjunction with ATF to coordinate investigative activity and crack down on violent Tesla attacks. More to come," FBI spokesperson Ben Williamson posted to X.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas on Mar. 20 cut his Tesla price target to 410 from 430, but maintained the overweight rating on the shares. Most of Jonas' commentary was on falling vehicle deliveries.
However, the TSLA bull believes Tesla's "softer auto deliveries are emblematic of a company in the transition from an automotive 'pure play' to a highly diversified play on AI and robotics."
For the full year, Sharp Consensus pegs Tesla EPS increasing 7% to $2.59. However, the consensus number has dropped about 10% in recent months. For 2025, analysts predict Tesla vehicle deliveries to increase 9% to 1.95 million units, but with more recent forecasts targeting flat to lower sales for the year.
Tesla Stock Performance
TSLA shook off early losses, gaining 3.5% to 287.99 during Tuesday's market stock action. On Monday, Tesla stock soared nearly 12% to 278.39.
Late on Thursday, Tesla held a surprise all hands company meeting. Chief Executive Elon Musk took the stage to once more tout the company's long-term strategy around robotaxis, artificial intelligence and robotics, including the expected demand around Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot.
Musk's message was clear during the all-hands meeting: "What I'm saying is, hang onto your stock."
Tesla stock has booked nine consecutive weekly declines. Despite ending last week down, Tesla enters Tuesday's stock market open up 28% since its March 11 low of 217.02 — recovering a 15% drop from March 10.
Investors should generally avoid stocks below the 200-day or even their 50-day lines.
Tesla stock is down about 5% in March.
The EV giant has fallen 31% so far in 2025, placing it as one of the worse performers in the S&P 500 this year.
Tesla stock has a 21-day average true range of 7.47%. The ATR metric is available on IBD's MarketSurge charting tool. It gauges the characteristic breadth of a stock's behavior. Stocks that tend to make large jumps or dives in daily action, the kind that can trigger sell rules and shake investors out of a stock, have a high ATR. Stocks that tend to make more incremental moves have lower ATRs.
In the current market, IBD suggests stocks with ATRs of 3% or below.
Tesla stock ranks fourth in the 35-stock IBD Auto Manufacturers industry group. The stock has a 69 Composite Rating out of a best-possible 99. Shares also have an 83 Relative Strength Rating and an 84 EPS Rating.
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