Tesla vehicle insurance registrations in China surged sequentially last week, marking one of the company's highest weekly totals ever in the key EV market as demand in China continues to rebound. Meanwhile, a top analyst increased his Tesla stock price target, but it's not due to vehicle deliveries.
Tesla stock hit a high of 409.73 during market trade on Tuesday.
Tesla insurance registrations in China totaled 21,900 for the week of Dec. 2-Dec. 8, up 17% from 18,700 the previous week. The tally was the second-best week this year for Tesla and the third best ever.
With just three weeks left in the fourth quarter, Tesla registrations in China, a rough gauge for deliveries, are up nearly 9.5% compared to last quarter and have increased 17.8% vs. a year ago.
Tesla's year-to-date China registration, which lagged earlier this year, turned positive in the third quarter, and are now up about 8% compared to the same time frame in 2023. The company sold 78,856 China-made vehicles in November, including 5,366 exported, according to data released Monday by the China Passenger Car Association. That marks the best month this year for domestic sales in China and up 12% vs. the 65,504 vehicles in the same month last year. Tesla China's exports are at a two-year low.
Troy Teslike, whose delivery estimates and data tracking are highly respected among retail Tesla investors, expects U.S. and Europe sales to drop by more than 30,000 units in 2024 vs. 2023. Teslike sees China sales growing by more than 48,000 units.
"There is no need for celebration over the China numbers when sales are down in the U.S. and Europe," Teslike wrote on X last week.
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Morgan Stanley Keeps Tesla As 'Top Pick'
Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley's high-profile auto analyst and a TSLA bull, on Tuesday hiked his Tesla stock price target to 400, up from 310, reiterating an overweight rating on the EV giant. Jonas also maintained Tesla as a "top pick."
"Elon Musk's entry into the political sphere has expanded investor thinking around Tesla's fundamental outlook – TSLA shares have since responded by rallying beyond our prior 310 price target," Jonas wrote.
"From our ongoing client discussions, we hear enthusiasm for all things AI, datacenters, renewable energy, robotics and on-shoring," he added.
Meanwhile, Jonas remained cautious about Tesla's autonomous driving prospects in the short term.
"While a reassessment of self-driving policies at a national level could be inevitable in our view, we believe Tesla still faces significant hurdles to overcome in terms of technology, testing and permitting required for commercialization," Jonas wrote. "However, we believe U.S. states and metro areas will continue to have the greatest say on final deployment."
Bank of America analyst John Murphy on Thursday raised his Tesla stock price target to 400 from 350, and maintained a buy rating. The analyst hiked his price target after visiting Tesla's Texas gigafactory.
Tesla is well-positioned to grow in 2025 with its core EV business and launch of its robotaxi, according to Murphy. The analyst added that the Optimus humanoid robot is "real" adding that "development" is "poised to accelerate."
Tesla Deliveries
The EV giant has said it expects "slight" vehicle deliveries growth this year, but with the end of the fourth quarter fast approaching, Tesla finds itself looking for answers with unit sales lagging in the U.S. and Europe.
The company saw vehicle deliveries rise 38% to 1.8 million in 2023 and while Tesla has said that sort of increase this year is out of reach, it is predicting growth in its automobile segment.
"Despite ongoing macroeconomic conditions, we expect to achieve slight growth in vehicle deliveries in 2024," Tesla said in its third-quarter earnings release.
Looking further out, Chief Executive Elon Musk proclaimed on the Q3 earnings call that vehicle sales could grow "20%-30%" in 2025.
Rumors circulated over the weekend that Tesla plans to release a "Model Q" hatchback next year with a price tag around $30,000. It's unclear if that rumor was true, though Musk said on the Q3 earnings call an upcoming "affordable" vehicle will cost under $30,000 after tax incentives.
With Tesla predicting slight vehicle delivery growth in 2024 vs. 2023's 1.81 million, the EV giant needs 515,000 deliveries or more in Q4, far more than the Q4 2023 record of 484,507. Analyst consensus currently forecasts 497,000 vehicle deliveries in Q4 and 1.79 million for 2024, according to FactSet.
Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney wrote last week that data out of the U.S., Europe, and China show mixed demand trends for Tesla. He said lowered his Q4 deliveries estimate to 510,000, down from 515,000.
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Tesla Stock Performance
TSLA shares rose 2.9% to 400.99, with an intraday high of 409.73, during market action on Tuesday, after edging up 0.15% to 389.79 on Monday. Tesla stock hit 404.80 intraday on Monday.
The stock last touched 400 in January 2022, according to MarketSurge charts. Elon Musk's company hit an all-time high of 414.50 on Nov. 4, 2021. That day it closed at 409.97.
TSLA stock is on a 50% tear since Donald Trump's election win, as investors speculate that self-driving is coming soon, with the Trump administration easing the regulatory path for autonomous vehicles.
Tesla stock popped 3.2% to 369.49 last Thursday, clearing a recent range, which could have offered an add-on entry for existing TSLA holders. However, the stock is more than 70% above its 200-day moving average, a red flag of a stock becoming overextended.
Tesla stock ranks first in the 35-member IBD Auto Manufacturers industry group. The stock has a 93 Composite Rating out of a best-possible 99. Shares also have a 97 Relative Strength Rating and a 78 EPS Rating.
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