Storm surges, rising sea levels and beach erosion could threaten $25 billion worth of Australian residential properties over the next 30 years, according to an analysis of coastal hazard data.
Financial services and analytics firm CoreLogic has used 30 years of tidal and shoreline retreat data to calculate a climate risk rating for residential properties within 800 metres of the coast.
Queensland had the highest concentration of properties in the 'Very High' risk category, particularly in the densely populated Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast areas.
Dr Wiart, head of climate and risk management solutions, said it would be a case-by-case basis, but property owners "need to have that in their mind", especially if they have longer-term mortgages.
New South Wales, Tasmania and South Australia also had a large number of individual houses classified as being at ‘Very High’ physical and financial risk due to their close proximity to the coast, low elevation, shoreline erosion and high property values.
Top 10 suburbs by number of buildings most at risk
Suburb |
No. of dwellings |
Apartment dwellings |
Property value at risk |
|---|---|---|---|
Paradise Point, QLD |
406 |
43 |
$1,466.9m |
Cronulla, NSW |
8 |
254 |
$486.4m |
Port Melbourne, VIC |
29 |
202 |
$483.8m |
Manly, NSW |
21 |
109 |
$462.1m |
Aspendale, VIC |
112 |
136 |
$455.3m |
Runaway Bay, QLD |
136 |
219 |
$424.1m |
Brighton, VIC |
50 |
43 |
$415.4m |
Caloundra, QLD |
20 |
523 |
$380.5m |
Collaroy, NSW |
34 |
74 |
$375.9m |
Golden Beach, QLD |
100 |
294 |
$340.6m |
Source: CoreLogic
Paradise Point lies on the northern end of the Gold Coast, where more than 6,500 people live in the gated communities on the broadwater and man-made canals.
Luxury boats are in abundance and soaring property prices have seen the median house value top $1.5 million.
But CoreLogic has found the blue-chip suburb has the highest concentration of detached houses most vulnerable to climate change.
The report states: "As a consequence of their high retail value, estimated at $1.4 billion within 6.4 square kilometres, no other suburb has such a high concentration of residential wealth subject to high coastal risk."
The Sydney suburbs of Cronulla and Manly also rank highly due to their high residential apartment values and density of apartment dwellings within close proximity to the coastline.
Port Melbourne in Victoria received a similar risk rating.
Bayside City mayor Alex del Porto told ABC Radio Melbourne his council was using sandbags and replenishing the beach to protect stretches of its coastline in Brighton, but warned "it's not just Dendy Street Beach".
"We've got 17 kilometres of foreshore, and really we're seeing erosion all around our foreshore and all around the bay," he said.
Mr del Porto attributed the issue to sea level rising and storm surges and called on state and federal governments to install protective mechanisms like breakwaters and groins to stop the erosion.
"Otherwise we're going to lose all the beaches the way we're going," he said.
COVID seachange increases risk
Over the past two years, the popularity of working from home has been a catalyst for many people to move from capital cities to regional areas.
"It's not so much that the [climate change] risk itself has increased dramatically recently but it's the fact that we are, as a society, living closer to the sea."
CoreLogic's data shows one in 10 residential houses, apartments and farms are located within 1 kilometre of the Australian coastline, worth more than $1 trillion of property wealth.
One in five Tasmanian homes have been built within 1km of the coastline while Queensland has $218.4 billion dollars worth of property in the same zone, with the highest concentration of wealth in Brisbane, the Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast.
In New South Wales, these markets can be found on the Central Coast, in Newcastle, Greater Sydney and south to Wollongong in the Illawarra.
Victoria's southern coast and Adelaide's metropolitan coast are also listed as prime coastal regions.
Score could affect ability to get a home loan, insurance
CoreLogic said while storm surges present an immediate risk to coastal properties, gradual coastal erosion would also have a significant impact over time.
Dr Wiart said it was something banks needed to consider when granting home loans.
"The first instance is for the financial institution to get a kind of a red flag or to be notified," Dr Wiart said.
"And then perhaps to address it in the long-term if they have a lot of assets being put at risk."
The Insurance Council of Australia said legacy planning by Australian governments had left some coastal communities highly vulnerable to tidal inundation and coastal erosion.
It confirmed most home owners would not to covered for "actions of the sea".
But a spokesperson for the council said the industry was willing to work with governments on measures in response to climate change, including re-writing planning and building codes which it said play a critical role in ensuring affordable insurance.
CoreLogic said it would be wise for councils to re-consider planning permits for future developments in high-risk areas.
"It has already been established that those risks are present so it's definitely wise and good governance … and for the communities to assess those risks and to be quite honest about it," Dr Wiart said.
