Who will be this year’s Oakland, Fairleigh Dickinson or Saint Peter’s? Sports Illustrated’s Cinderella Rankings are here to guide you to the daring picks that could help you win your bracket pool this year. While the top of men’s college basketball is as strong as it has been in a long time, the single-elimination nature of the tournament means we’re bound for plenty of upsets. And this year’s crop of potential Cinderellas is incredibly strong, with most of the top one-bid league teams winning their conference tournaments to punch their tickets to the Big Dance.
Which teams have what it takes to shock the world and win a game or two in the dance? Here’s a look at the 10 best bets to wear Cinderella’s slipper this year.
1. UC San Diego Tritons (No. 12 Seed, South Region)
UCSD is dancing in its first year eligible after completing the four-year transition process to Division I in 2024, and the Tritons have the potential for a deep run now that they’ve punched a ticket. This is a unique roster construction, with four starters who transferred in from Division II programs and a fifth who played sparingly at Saint Mary’s a year ago. But while the Tritons’ roster isn’t filled with high-level pedigree, the talent level is very high, and UCSD plays a style that lends itself to significant upset potential.
The head of the snake is Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones (good luck to Charles Barkley pronouncing that), a fifth-year player from New Zealand who spent three years at Hawaii-Hilo before transferring to UCSD. Tait-Jones led UCSD in scoring, rebounding, assists and blocks this season, and at times played like the Cooper Flagg of the Big West, capable of getting others involved or bull-rushing to the rim and drawing fouls. He’s one of the most efficient players in the country and has real “star of March” potential. Around him, UCSD trots out tons of shooting, with three starters who’ve made at least 50 triples this season.
But what has really allowed UCSD to take off this season is its defense, which has become one of the most disruptive in the country and ranks second nationally in defensive turnover rate. That’s a particularly intriguing stylistic matchup for first-round opponent Michigan, which turns the ball over at the highest rate of any team in the field. On the other hand, UCSD is very undersized in the frontcourt facing a Michigan team that starts two 7-footers. Circle this matchup as one of the most intriguing of the first round.
2. VCU Rams (No. 11 Seed, East Region)
The Rams have worn Cinderella’s slipper before, going from the First Four to the Final Four in 2011. Analytically, this year’s group is the best VCU squad since the Shaka Smart years, but the Rams needed to win the A-10 tournament just to ensure their place in the field after a mediocre nonconference schedule. This is an elite defensive team, topping the nation in effective field goal percentage defense and ranking in the top five nationally at defending twos thanks to their potent combination of athleticism guarding the ball and an elite rim protector in freshman Luke Bamgboye cleaning things up on the back end. VCU makes teams work for every movement, applying full-court ball pressure and attempting to blow up dribble handoffs, cuts and other actions. If you don’t have elite-level shotmakers who can create their own shot in one-on-one situations, it’s going to be hard to consistently get good shots against this defense, and BYU’s offense is built around breaking down teams with its passing.
VCU also has the offensive firepower to keep up if it can’t drag BYU into a low-scoring grind. Max Shulga is an elite shotmaking guard who could hear his name called in this June’s NBA draft, and Joe Bamisile and Phillip Russell are big-time scorers next to him in the backcourt. The Rams’ offense is also buoyed by being one of the elite offensive rebounding teams in the sport, generating a ton of second chances that often end in good looks from three. BYU isn’t an easy draw, but the matchup isn’t a terrible one stylistically for the Rams.
3. Colorado State Rams (No. 12 Seed, West Region)
There may not be a hotter team in the field than Colorado State, which surged into the bracket by rolling through the Mountain West tournament to remove all doubt about its at-large hopes. The Rams have won 10 straight since Feb. 15, and in that span CSU is the eighth-best team in the country per T-Rank. This is the classic example of a team being seeded far lower than the level they’re currently playing, and it’s hard to imagine the Memphis Tigers are at all pleased with their draw despite earning a much stronger seed than expected.
Star wing Nique Clifford has gone from excellent to otherworldly during this 10-game run. He’s averaging 22 points, nine rebounds and five assists per game while shooting over 50% from both the field and from three in the last 10, solidifying himself as a legitimate contender to go in the first round of June’s NBA draft. A trio of sophomores also helped the Rams make huge strides since a difficult nonconference, with point guard Kyan Evans, in particular, really turning the corner.
The one concern with CSU is its somewhat limited athleticism, as evidenced by the Rams’ struggles against the New Mexico Lobos in Mountain West play. Memphis’s size and speed could pose problems, particularly star guard PJ Haggerty. The battle between Haggerty and Clifford could be one of the best of the first round.
4. High Point Panthers (No. 13 Seed, Midwest Region)
Alan Huss’s team looked like it was headed to a second year of conference tournament heartbreak, trailing by 15 early through the second half against the Winthrop Eagles in the Big South title game. Instead, the Panthers went on the type of run that illustrates just why this group has a chance to create some March magic, outscoring Winthrop by 27 in the game’s final 15 minutes to rally and clinch the program’s first-ever NCAA tournament berth.
When clicking, this is one of the best offensive teams in the country. High Point ranks No. 26 nationally in offensive efficiency per KenPom, the highest mark of any one-bid-league team this season. The backcourt is loaded, featuring older stars Kezza Giffa, D’Maurian Williams and Bobby Pettiford who all can create their own shot. Up front, the Panthers have high-major athleticism with Kimani Hamilton (a Mississippi State Bulldogs transfer) and 7-foot shot blocker Juslin Bodo Bodo.
High Point has faced just one high-major foe in two seasons under Huss, an eight-point loss to Georgia in late 2023. It’s fair to wonder whether a team that has largely won with overwhelming talent compared to the rest of its league will translate well to facing a higher-level opponent in the Big Dance. But the matchup against Purdue feels like close to a best-case scenario, given the Boilermakers don’t have overwhelming size or athleticism and have really struggled to defend the rim this season. Giffa and Pettiford could cause serious problems for Purdue’s ball screen defense, and Hamilton and Bodo Bodo are athletic bodies to throw at Boilers star big Trey Kaufman-Renn.
5. Drake Bulldogs (No. 11 Seed, West Region)
The nation’s first team to 30 wins, the 30–3 Bulldogs have been a revelation in Ben McCollum’s first season as head coach and removed any doubt about their NCAA tournament candidacy by winning the Missouri Valley tournament.
Drake plays one of the more distinct styles in the country, playing at the slowest pace by far of any team in the sport. The Bulldogs are incredibly comfortable dragging games into the mud, deliberately executing their half-court offense and letting star point guard Bennett Stirtz go to work late in the shot clock. That makes facing a team like Missouri that wants to push the pace intriguing. Drake had luck dragging nonconference opponents like the Vanderbilt Commodores and Kansas State Wildcats into games on their terms, and the slow pace tends to make the Bulldogs a more intriguing underdog than favorite like they were throughout Missouri Valley play. Limiting possessions, generating a ton of extra opportunities on the glass and letting an elite point guard go to work late is a pretty strong upset recipe.
That said, it will be fascinating to see how Drake deals with a team as athletic and physical as Missouri. Tigers forward Mark Mitchell is a major matchup problem for Drake, and guard Anthony Robinson is a good option to attempt to defend Stirtz.
6. New Mexico Lobos (No. 10 Seed, South Region)
America, get ready to meet Donovan Dent. The Lobos’ sensational point guard is one of the most dynamic players in the sport and has a chance to be one of the stars of the tournament’s first weekend by lifting New Mexico to an upset or two in the process.
Dent is the heartbeat of the Lobos’ offense thanks to his elite skill in ball screens and ability to put pressure on the rim. He’s paired with a double-double machine at center in Nelly Junior Joseph, forming one of the more potent duos in mid-major basketball. New Mexico’s also a top-20 defense nationally per KenPom thanks to its impressive size and athleticism across the board. Their starting lineup features three players listed at 6' 9" or taller, which could pose some interesting challenges for an undersized Marquette Golden Eagles team. The matchup between Junior Joseph and Marquette stretch big Ben Gold could decide the game.
If the Lobos can advance, they’d likely get a crack at the Michigan State Spartans. Winning that one would be a tall task, but New Mexico handled the UCLA Bruins earlier in the season with relative ease, and the Lobos should at least be able to hang in against the Spartans on the glass.
7. McNeese State Cowboys (No. 12 Seed, Midwest Region)
McNeese was one of the most popular Cinderella picks last year and was never overly competitive in its No. 12-vs.-5 matchup with Gonzaga. The Bulldogs were a brutal draw, but exposed McNeese’s flaws in a tournament setting: A team built with pressure defense that relies on overwhelming teams with its size and athleticism may not be the perfect roster build for a Cinderella run.
That said, McNeese was very competitive in two games against SEC opponents this season, hanging around the entire way with the Alabama Crimson Tide in November and losing a nailbiter against Mississippi State in December. This team is excellent defensively thanks to long, athletic, versatile pieces Quadir Copeland and Joe Charles who serve as disrupters. This year’s McNeese team doesn’t have the elite shotmaker like they had in Shahada Wells last year, but Saint Louis Billikens transfer Sincere Parker is capable of scoring in bunches when he heats up.
Having a high-level coach on the sideline in Will Wade helps, and this group won’t be intimidated talent-wise. McNeese will have trouble turning a usually sure-handed Clemson over, though the Tigers will be without a key ballhandler in Dillon Hunter due to a broken hand. Watch the battle on the glass: Both teams rely a ton on second chances.
8. Yale Bulldogs (No. 13 Seed, South Region)
Last year, Yale earned a No. 13 seed and got sent out West to face an SEC team with superior athleticism but questionable decision-making. We all remember how that turned out. Can the Bulldogs make lightning strike twice? This year, the Bulldogs get the Texas A&M Aggies in Denver in one of the more intriguing No. 4-vs.-13 matchups.
Texas A&M relies on two main things to win in spite of its poor three-point shooting: forcing turnovers and offensive rebounds. Yale is elite at taking care of the ball and very good at keeping teams off the offensive glass. Texas A&M has the wing athletes to throw at Yale sharpshooter John Poulakidas, but Auburn did too and Poulakidas still went for 27 points. Plus, Yale features one of the best perimeter defenders in the country in Bez Mbeng, a good matchup to try to slow down star Aggies guard Wade Taylor IV.
9. Liberty Flames (No. 12 Seed, East Region)
The best upset picks are often teams that play a high-variance style. Liberty would certainly qualify there, ranking in the top-25 nationally in three-point attempt rate and fifth nationally in three-point percentage while being one of the best defenses in the country at preventing the three. When the Flames get rolling from downtown, they’re capable of beating just about anyone, and with three guards who’ve each hit 50-plus threes at a 39% clip or better this season, it’s not as easy as just keying in on one matchup.
Their opponents, the Oregon Ducks, aren’t a terrible matchup either. Liberty's primary concern: slowing down 7-footer Nate Bittle, one of the most talented bigs in the country and a guy who Liberty has no clear answer for inside. But if the Flames can at least make Bittle work for his points around the rim, they should have a chance at pulling the upset … especially if they can heat up from distance early on.
10. UNC Wilmington Seahawks (No. 14 Seed, West Region)
Each of the last four tournaments have seen at least one 14-, 15- or 16-seed win a game. The top of the sport’s strength this season makes a fifth straight year challenging to predict, but if there’s a potential upset out there, it’s likely with the Seahawks. The CAA champions are an old, experienced team with impressive positional size for a mid-major, featuring just one player in the regular rotation under 6' 5". They’re outstanding at attacking the rim, both with drives and post-ups, and have a 7-footer in Harlan Obioha capable of generating offense one-on-one in the low post. That could pose some problems for a Texas Tech team that lacks some size, starting three guards and a 6' 9" center in JT Toppin. The big question is whether the Seahawks’ defense can be stout enough to slow down an explosive Red Raider attack. Expect to see UNCW throw multiple looks at Grant McCasland’s team, including some zones.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Ten Teams That Could Make Cinderella Runs in the 2025 Men’s NCAA Tournament.
