With the trade deadline just more than 24 hours away, it’s crunch time for every playoff contender looking to pull off a major move and improve their odds at winning the World Series … plus every also-ran aiming to cash in on their valuable assets.
Plenty of deals have unfolded over the past week as the transaction wire has finally heated up, but fans can expect even more difference-makers to switch uniforms as the clock ticks toward 6 p.m. ET Tuesday. Below are five teams and five players expected to be in the middle of the action.
San Diego Padres
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The Padres seem like the team most likely to go on a run mirroring the 2021 Braves, who meandered around .500 for much of the season before remaking their entire outfield at the deadline, catching fire in August and winning the World Series a few months later. The Padres (52–54) have the 10th-best record in the NL and haven’t been over .500 since May 10 but are quite a bit better than they’ve shown, given they have the NL’s third-best run differential (+61). And they may finally be rounding into form after sweeping the Rangers at home over the weekend for San Diego’s second series sweep of the season (and its second this month), outscoring the AL West leaders, 16–4, over three games.
That being said, San Diego still needs to jump four teams and make up five games in the wild-card race. If the Padres are to make a flurry of moves, the bullpen, which ranks 21st in fWAR among relief units, stands out as a potential area to upgrade.
As Emma Baccellieri noted, the Padres have been awful in one-run games (6–17) and have somehow lost all nine of their extra-inning games despite possessing one of the game’s elite closers in Josh Hader. Setup man Robert Suarez’s recent return to the roster from a season-long elbow injury should help matters, but it wouldn’t hurt to acquire another arm or two to bridge the gap from the team’s elite starters—the Friars rank first in rotation ERA (3.64)—to Hader.
If GM A.J. Preller is itching to move the needle more, as he is wont to do, trading for a bat to spell the likes of Trent Grisham (97 wRC+) and Matt Carpenter (72 wRC+) could help immensely. Cardinals outfielder Dylan Carlson, a former top prospect who can play all three outfield positions and could use a change of scenery, seems like an ideal target.
Justin Verlander, Mets P
Let’s go ahead and talk about the biggest name circulating. The Mets already dealt Max Scherzer, a trade that Verlander said made him “change my opinion” on the team’s situation. If New York wants to get younger and cheaper ahead of another possible reload this offseason (amid a loaded starting pitching free-agent class), Verlander seems like a decent bet to waive his no-trade clause to go to a contender. The Braves have checked in on him, according to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi, and the Dodgers have been heavily linked to him in recent days.
The Mets have reportedly placed a high price tag on the three-time Cy Young winner despite a marked downturn in strikeout rate (20.9%, his lowest since 2014 and a 7% drop from last season) and a 3.94 FIP that’d be his worst mark in a full season since 2008. Still, Verlander would probably start either Game 1 or Game 2 for most playoff teams due to his lengthy résumé and still-solid stats, and he’s posted a 1.49 ERA over his last seven starts.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are simultaneously bursting at the seams with highly touted prospects across the diamond and shockingly thin in terms of major-league-ready starting pitchers, both in terms of their own standards and any postseason contender. A team we’ve become accustomed to seeing stocked with frontline starters is instead sporting a rotation that ranks 25th with a 4.76 ERA, as many of those prized youngsters have been forced to the big leagues ahead of schedule. With Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler and Dustin May on the injured list, no Los Angeles starter has an ERA below 4.00. Even if Kershaw and Buehler return from their respective shoulder and elbow injuries, this rotation is in need of reinforcements.
Andrew Friedman, president of baseball operations, has already partially addressed this issue with a trade for former White Sox Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly. But it seems inevitable the franchise that’s become known for blockbuster deals over the past decade-plus will make another big splash to bolster its odds of holding off the Giants, Diamondbacks and Padres in the NL West. If the Dodgers can’t pry Verlander from the Mets, which seems likelier than ever after Verlander’s revealing comments to reporters Sunday, then perhaps they could get Tigers ace Eduardo Rodriguez. Otherwise, L.A. could be hard-pressed to find a true difference-maker—though it’d be unwise to bet against Friedman unearthing a gem somewhere.
Jeimer Candelario, National 3B
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Update: Candelario was traded to the Cubs on Monday.
Candelario is in the middle of a terrific bounceback season after being nontendered by the lowly Tigers last winter, then signing a one-year, $5 million deal with the Nationals that’s proved to be one of the best bargains of the offseason. The switch hitter ranks fourth among third basemen in fWAR (3.0), with his bat returning to the form he showed in Detroit in 2020 and ’21, while he’s also posting career-best advanced fielding metrics.
With Cody Bellinger and Shohei Ohtani being taken off the market over the last week, Candelario is the best bat widely known to be available. Nationals GM Mike Rizzo seems intent on milking the 29-year-old’s value for all its worth, as he revealed to The Athletic’s Jim Bowden on Sunday that there are eight suitors for his services. While the Marlins, Phillies and Yankees make the most sense on the surface as landing spots, Candelario is clearly a hot commodity at the moment.
New York Yankees
Brian Cashman has been the object of much criticism among Yankees fans, as the league’s second-highest payroll ($278 million) has thus far resulted in a last-place AL East team. MLB’s longest-tenured GM may come under pressure if New York misses the playoffs for the first time since 2016. With as many holes this team has, it’d probably be best for the Yankees (55–50) to enter sellers’ mode. But they don’t have any particularly enticing pending free agents to trade. Plus, Cashman’s job could be on the line, and this is the Yankees we’re talking about. So they will probably aim for the postseason, despite possessing the AL’s 10th-best run differential (+9) and 27.7% playoff odds, per FanGraphs.
Gerrit Cole has pitched well enough to win the Cy Young award he’s nearly missed out on so many times, but New York’s rotation (23rd in fWAR) has been shaky behind him. Luis Severino has given up seven runs in three starts this month. There’s no way the Mets would trade Verlander to their crosstown rivals, but the Yanks could match up well with the Tigers, who have two starters to dangle in Rodriguez and Michael Lorenzen.
There may be an even more pressing need on offense, however. Only two of the 10 Yankees with the most plate appearances this year, Aaron Judge and Gleyber Torres, qualify as above-average hitters, per wRC+. And with the reigning home run king missing roughly half of the team’s games thus far, that’s been a recipe for disaster. Judge hit the ground running with a homer in his second game back from the injured list on Saturday, but he needs some support if New York is going to make a run.
The Bombers have started the uninspiring trio of Billy McKinney, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Greg Allen in left field over their past three games, so an outfielder like Washington’s Lane Thomas or Oakland’s Brent Rooker could provide a spark for a team in desperate need of one. And if the Yankees feel Kyle Higashioka isn’t cut out for everyday duty in the wake of Jose Trevino’s season-ending injury, there is one starting-caliber catcher who could be available …
Elias Díaz, Rockies C
Starting catchers, let alone All-Star catchers, are rarely moved at this time of year—over the last decade, only three catchers sent to their new teams at the trade deadline assumed full-time starting duties, according to Matt Martell, writing for The New York Times. But with Colorado yet again well out of the playoff picture and Díaz enjoying a breakout year at age 32, perhaps he’ll become an exception for a team starving for better backstop production.
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Díaz’s mediocre nine-year track record and concerning splits away from Coors Field indicate his career may never peak beyond his storybook home run at the Midsummer Classic, which made him one of the unlikeliest MVPs in All-Star Game history. But he’s an above-average batter for his position (even accounting for his hitter-friendly home field), and while he doesn’t possess positive framing metrics, he grades out as one of the best blockers and throwers from behind the plate.
Díaz could easily prove to be an upgrade for a team such as the Yankees, Astros, Marlins or Rays. He’s also owed roughly $2 million for the rest of this season and $6 million next year, so it wouldn’t be a huge risk to hope he can produce some more magic and help some team succeed in the playoffs.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs had the profile of a surefire seller 10 days ago, as rumors circulated about the availability of the rejuvenated Bellinger and All-Star starter Marcus Stroman. Then an eight-game winning streak boosted their FanGraphs playoff odds from 6.3% to a season-high 32.4%. That’s far from a sure thing, but it was enough to convince the team to take Bellinger off the trade market, according to ESPN’s Jesse Rogers. (It seems notable that while news emerged about Bellinger seemingly sticking in Chicago, no such credible reports have surfaced about Stroman, who leads the NL in home run rate and has made clear his desire to stay in the Windy City.)
As the owners of the NL Central’s best run differential (+57), by a long shot over the division-leading Reds (+3) and second-place Brewers (-14), there’s reason to believe Chicago (53–52) could win the division despite trailing Cincinnati by four games. There’s also reason to believe the winning streak, composed entirely against their spiraling rivals in St. Louis and on the South Side, may end up being a curse in disguise, a mirage of a better team that prevents the Cubs from gaining valuable prospect capital for Bellinger and Stroman. Chicago’s front office undoubtedly knows this, and that dichotomy makes for an interesting fork in the road the team must now face. Doing nothing would be worse than committing to either path and choosing incorrectly. (If the Cubs do decide to go for it, they, like many teams, could use pitching depth.)
The Cubbies could conceivably move into a tie for first place this week if they sweep a critical four-game home set against the Reds (and the Brewers oblige by getting swept by the Nationals). They could also fall eight games back in the division standings. Unfortunately for them, they must make a plan and stick to it within the next 24 hours or so.
Dylan Cease, White Sox P
The White Sox have traded five pitchers over the last week amid their second straight supremely disappointing season, though they’ve yet to indicate whether their selloff is indicative of a reevaluation of their contention window (the only one of that quintet who’s guaranteed a contract for next season is reliever Kendall Graveman). It’s unclear whether GM Rick Hahn would initiate a full teardown—he must be feeling some heat after former manager Tony La Russa served as the scapegoat for last year’s debacle—but The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported Sunday that he’s at least been listening to offers about everyone on the roster.
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One would think that if the Sox were going to trade Cease, the pitching-needy Dodgers would’ve ponied up the prospects necessary for a deal when the two teams connected last week on the Lance Lynn–Joe Kelly move. But if the Sox do come to the conclusion this isn’t a team that can be fixed by next season, Cease would become perhaps the most sought-after pitcher on the market. While his 4.15 ERA is nothing special, his strikeout-walk ratio is right where it was a year ago, when he was the AL Cy Young runner-up. There’s a good chance he’s been let down by the White Sox’s defense, the league’s worst by fWAR. Unlike Verlander, the 27-year-old will be under team control via arbitration through 2025 and would return a haul for a team that landed in the bottom five of MLB Pipeline’s preseason farm system rankings.
Baltimore Orioles
The surprise AL East leaders have oodles of financial flexibility as the owners of MLB’s second-lowest payroll ($69 million) and a deep farm system that’d enable them to acquire any player on the trade market. While GM Mike Elias has signaled an unwillingness to sacrifice the top prizes of the war chest of prospects he’s meticulously stockpiled over the last five years for a fleeting rental, the Orioles (64–41) have an opportunity to seize this unexpected moment and provide their youthful roster with some invaluable playoff experience.
While just about every team could use another quality starter, that’s an especially pressing need for Baltimore, which has an extremely young rotation littered with arms that will soon be scraping up against innings limits. On Sunday, the Orioles sent Tyler Wells, who’s been the team’s second-best starter, to Double A to “reset” after he lasted a total of nine innings in his three starts since the All-Star break. Behind de facto No. 1 Kyle Bradish (3.29 ERA), the likes of Dean Kremer, Kyle Gibson, Cole Irvin and struggling rookie Grayson Rodriguez probably wouldn’t scare anyone in October. A veteran such as Stroman would’ve made a lot of sense in Baltimore (before the Cubs’ recent hot streak). While it’d be awesome to see the O’s engage with the White Sox for Cease, Detroit’s Lorenzen and/or St. Louis’s Jack Flaherty could make for more realistic options.
Baltimore could also bring in a new shortstop to push the no-bat, all-glove Jorge Mateo into a backup utility/role he’s a better fit for. Either the Cardinals’ Paul DeJong or the White Sox’ Tim Anderson wouldn’t cost much in terms of prospects or money (and both have 2024 club options that can be declined with a low buyout cost if they don’t perform well).
David Bednar, Pirates P
Relievers are the most frequent type of player traded midseason, as it’s the easiest position to plug and play in the middle of a pennant race. But this year’s crop seems unseasonably weak, as there aren’t many sellers with premier closers—the 10 players with the most saves all suit up for teams within five games of a playoff spot. There’s a decent chance Jordan Hicks and David Robertson will be the biggest bullpen names to change addresses this summer.
Bednar is the one guy who could prompt an epic bidding war. An All-Star each of the last two years—the only Pirate aside from starter Mitch Keller to receive an invite to the Midsummer Classic over that span—Bednar has posted the third-highest fWAR and the eighth-best ERA (min. 90 IP) among relievers since the beginning of the 2022 season. He would instantly improve any team’s relief corps.
The Pirates are reportedly reluctant to part with Bednar, and for good reason. He’s controllable through 2026, by which time the team may actually be ready to emerge from a playoff drought that dates back to ’16. He’s also a Pittsburgh native who celebrated a five-out save Saturday with the team’s fans outside of PNC Park.
David Bednar really is one of us #pirates pic.twitter.com/OaVguuWZzo
— Patrick Counihan (@NotPattyice00) July 30, 2023
If the Pirates do deal Bednar, it’ll be another crushing blow to a fan base well conditioned to them.
