It’s that time of year again: our annual list of players who have not yet made a Pro Bowl, but who we think will this year. Once again, rookies are excluded. Last year one of our big hits was Eagles pass rusher Haason Reddick, whom we imagined would shine in Jonathan Gannon’s defense, buttressed by a bunch of elite, pocket-pushing defensive tackles. Joe Burrow and Penei Sewell also came through from our list.
Projecting anything is difficult, but first-time Pro Bowlers are at the top of that pyramid. Jerry Jeudy was one of our big bets last year. And think about it: This time last year we thought the Russell Wilson era in Denver was going to be a perfect marriage. So with that in mind we will forge ahead with the 2023 list, knowing some players and their situations are drastically overrated. Each year, the goal is to bat 1.000. Let’s see how close we come.
Daniel Bartel/USA TODAY Sports (Fields); Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports (Seumalo); Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports (Davenport)
1. Justin Fields, quarterback, Chicago Bears
I view Fields similarly to the way I view Anthony Richardson, whom I’ve already predicted will be the league’s Offensive Rookie of the Year. The diversity and enormity of his statistical performance will overshadow better quarterbacking performances elsewhere. Fields has one season to prove he can carry the Bears’ franchise moving forward. By this time next year, we will be talking about whether Chicago will pick up his fifth-year option, and whether it’s interested in joining the fray for a quarterback in 2024 (armed with a truckload of picks from the Panthers deal to help them do so). This motivation, combined with better weapons, a second season in the offense and an improved offensive line, makes it something of a no-brainer that Fields will be in consideration for the Pro Bowl nod. The NFC is a quarterback-depressed conference. Last year, Geno Smith, Jalen Hurts and Kirk Cousins were the nominees. I don’t think it’s outrageous to suggest that two of those three names will get shuffled out.
2. Tyler Linderbaum, center, Baltimore Ravens
It’s not outrageous to make the argument that Linderbaum was one of the best centers in the NFL last season. It just so happens that most of the players better than him or on par with him were also in the AFC. Creed Humphrey tops that list, and, with only two centers heading to the NFL’s pre–Super Bowl festivities, it’s a difficult VIP area to gain access to. I’ll make the same argument I’ve always made for Linderbaum though (which, very tangentially, also applies to Humphrey): He has to work harder than other centers. That’s just a fact. Playing center for Lamar Jackson is very different from playing for a quarterback whose list of outcomes in the pocket is far less of a guessing game. Linderbaum has to be the centerpiece of a very hard-nosed, downhill running game, but he also has to be improvisational and well adept at more spatially challenged downfield blocks.
3. Andrew Thomas, offensive tackle, New York Giants
I am always going to make the argument for an anchor tackle who doesn’t play for Tom Brady to make the Pro Bowl over one who does. That’s no offense to Tristan Wirfs, who edged out Thomas last year for what I saw as the one up-for-grabs tackle spot in the NFC (behind stalwarts Lane Johnson and Trent Williams). One of the reasons Brady’s tackles are better is because they give up fewer sacks. Brady gets the ball out quicker than almost any quarterback in the NFL. Thomas was playing in a very schematically diverse offense that regularly shifted personnel groupings in order to confuse the defense. This, plus a run-heavy offense with a mobile quarterback, puts a lot on the shoulders of an offensive tackle. Thomas will be a Pro Bowl regular, especially as Johnson, Williams and some of the older guards in the conference phase out. This will be the first of many.
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4. Ja’Whaun Bentley, linebacker, New England Patriots
Bentley is one of the better do-everything linebackers in the NFL. He was targeted 47 times in the passing game last year, and posted 125 solo tackles and six quarterback hits. While he exists primarily in the box, he had some cornerback and defensive line duties, registering, according to Pro Football Focus, as one of the best run defenders in the league. Jerod Mayo was particularly high on Bentley this offseason. Besides Bill Belichick, there is no one who more intimately knows the expectations of a versatile Patriots linebacker than Mayo. Bentley logged a career-high 80% of New England’s snaps last year and figures to snag even more playing time in 2023.
Sergio Estrada/USA TODAY Sports
5. Brock Purdy, quarterback, San Francisco 49ers
If Brock Purdy is indeed the Week 1 starter in San Francisco and lasts the entire season, I find it hard to believe he won’t be in the Pro Bowl conversation. Purdy, the former Mr. Irrelevant, is ideally suited for Kyle Shanahan’s scheme, even if he doesn’t carry the mobile element Shanahan had desired when he selected Trey Lance in 2021. Purdy has the best weapon set since the 2000 St. Louis Rams at his disposal, and the offense is going to score in droves. Leading that orchestra comes with its perks. In five games as a starter last season, Purdy completed more than 67% of his passes, throwing 13 touchdowns and just four interceptions. Like Fields, he will simply be in a position to score more points than some of his counterparts, in addition to the fact that San Francisco will be in deep playoff contention.
6. Marcus Davenport, edge, Minnesota Vikings
Davenport is my major sleeper this year, much like Reddick was last year. The 2018 first-round pick of the Saints has never logged more than nine sacks or 16 quarterback hits in a season, both of which I think he can surpass in Brian Flores’s defense this year. Davenport will slide into the position vacated by Za’Darius Smith, who had 10 sacks and a Pro Bowl nod last year. Davenport will have the gifted Christian Darrisaw (another player who is certainly worth considering for a first-time Pro Bowl nod) to work against daily and a heightened focus on Flores’s ability to create confusion and simulate pressure from other areas of the field. Davenport won’t have the fully loaded deck of star pass rushers to work off like he did in New Orleans, but the change in scenery will help him bloom (and hit the ’24 free agent market with a bang).
7. Isaac Seumalo, guard, Pittsburgh Steelers
Here’s to peaking in your 30s. Seumalo, who has been a great player for a long time, failed to get the individual recognition on an offensive line with more known personalities like Lane Johnson and Jason Kelce. After six seasons on the Eagles, he is now the centerpiece of a gritty Steelers unit that will surprise people in 2023. Kelce called Seumalo one of the best guards in the league and one of the smartest players he’s ever been around. If that’s not praise that should be taken seriously from a player who has commanded the utmost respect in the league for his headiness, I’m not sure what is. Seumalo will have the challenge of protecting second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett and finally steadying the performances of third-year running back Najee Harris.
8. Chris Olave, wide receiver, New Orleans Saints
Olave was a 1A contender with Garrett Wilson for Offensive Rookie of the Year and has an upgrade at the quarterback position with the arrival of Derek Carr. While Olave theoretically has to share targets with Michael Thomas, the Saints are sampling from a Jon Gruden offense that produced three 70-plus target players in Las Vegas during Gruden’s final year on the sideline. There will be opportunities to go around. Olave took a massive, team-leading target share in his rookie season with a carousel of quarterbacks behind center, and his only real complementary option was running back Alvin Kamara. I think this year will be more liberating for Olave. Outside of A.J. Brown and Justin Jefferson, the receiver slots in the NFC would seem to be wide open.
9. Derrick Brown, defensive tackle, Carolina Panthers
Out of every pick on this list, I am most confident in Brown making the Pro Bowl. Panthers defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero, a slam-dunk future head coach who has maximized his personnel at every stop, gets to inherit Brown amid this rethought Panthers scheme. Brown had a career-high 10 quarterback knockdowns and missed just a single tackle a year ago, despite playing on a lowly Panthers team that rarely led and, thus, had few obvious pass-rushing situations. Brown was forced to be a run defender through and through, and he emerged at the end of 2022 as one of the best singular forces against the run in the NFL.
10. Kayvon Thibodeaux, edge, New York Giants
Long shot? Maybe. Thibodeaux is always going to be an acquired taste, and he logged just four sacks a year ago en route to finishing fourth in Defensive Rookie of the Year voting. Still, one has to put their faith in defensive coordinator Wink Martindale, one of the best minds in the sport, who routinely frees up his best rushers to get cracks at the quarterback. While sacks are a poor reference point, Thibodeaux’s hurry and pressure numbers can also vastly improve this year, lending some buoyancy to his case for a Pro Bowl bid. I would mark this projection as having the least likely chance of happening out of any on my list, while also keeping in mind that Thibodeaux is further removed from his injuries in college than ever, and has a winter and summer under his belt with professional guidance and training. Major leaps can happen.
