As the city sizzled in record-breaking temperatures earlier this month, Manchester was forced to confront an uncomfortable fact – it's failing to act fast enough. The extreme heat didn't quite hit the heights of 38C, which was forecast for Manchester on July 19, but records were broken twice in two days.
Weather stations in Rochdale and Rostherne - the nearest to the city - saw top temperatures of 37.2C and 37.7C respectively, smashing the previous record of 33.9C. Meanwhile, the The University of Manchester reported temperatures of more than 36C at its Whitworth Observatory near the city centre on the same day.
And climate change modelling by the UK Met Office predicts more frequent and intense weather events in the future, including floods and heatwaves. Despite the discomfort of the higher temperatures - estimated to be 5.6C above average during summers - flooding is expected to have the biggest impact on Manchester where more than 48,000 homes are at a high risk.
Earlier this year, there were three major storms in one week for the first time, affecting 430 homes in the city and causing delays to local infrastructure. For its part, Manchester council is on track to halve its own CO2 emissions by 2025 – and it even received national recognition for its response to the climate crisis at the Local Government Chronicle Awards earlier this week.
But the town hall is only responsible for 3 to 5 pc of emissions across the city. In 2018, the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research calculated that Manchester must cut its overall carbon emissions by 13 pc every year.
However, having missed that target, the city will now have to go further to stay within its science-based carbon budget of 15m tonnes over an 82-year period. This means without urgent action, Manchester is set to miss its first major milestone of halving carbon emissions across the city in five years by 2025.
On July 21, councillors on the environment and climate change scrutiny committee were presented with a recently refreshed action plan. The updated plan focuses on reducing emissions from the city’s buildings and transport - which together account for 86 per cent of its direct emissions - as well as how the city needs to radically increase renewable energy generation.
The report produced by Manchester Climate Change Agency - which brings together organisations from the public, private, community, faith, education and academic sectors - also recognises that collective action is required. In setting out the scale of action needed, the plan looks at the potential investment required - which will need to be met through private and public funding - as well as the carbon and financial savings which can be achieved and other benefits that transitioning to zero carbon would help unlock.
The report also sets out the wider benefits to Manchester, including warmer homes which are cheaper to heat, healthier lives and new green economy jobs. Speaking at the scrutiny committee meeting, Manchester Climate Change Agency director Samantha Nicholson said, as a city, we need to 'up our game'.
She said: "This is not in the hands of one organisation to deliver. We need to work collaboratively to do this.
"Our systems are complex and interrelated and it needs that collaborative effort to really deliver change. The public purse can't afford to do this.
"The price tag on this is high. So we need to find ways to unlock that private capital to help us do it.
"And critically, taking action on climate not only helps to address the climate crisis, but is the way to help us deliver some of our wider strategic ambitions around food poverty, fuel poverty, growth and development and just making the city a much nicer place to live."
What do we need to do?
According to the report, buildings account for 64 pc of the city's emissions. Modelling suggests £1.2bn is needed to cut carbon emissions from the city's buildings and 84,000 homes must be retrofitted to be more energy efficient.
Energy use must also come down by 61 pc in commercial premises, 45 pc in industrial buildings and be 58 pc lower in industrial buildings and processes. There will need to be a 30 pc decrease in the distance travelled by cars, buses, vans and motorbikes which account for almost a quarter of total emissions, 20 pc of journeys must be by public transport and another 20 pc on foot or bike.
Of the remaining journeys, 80 pc must be made using electric or hybrid vehicles. To reach zero carbon the city must also make a rapid shift away from fossil fuels and will need 35 times more renewable energy to halve its emissions.
The report suggests that up to 35 per cent of this renewable energy could be produced in Manchester, predominantly from small scale solar PV panels. The framework update also looks at how the city must adapt to make sure it can manage the real and immediate impacts of climate change which are already being felt, such as more flooding, focusing on nature-based solutions.
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But Chloe Jeffries, from Climate Emergency Manchester, says the updated plans suggest the city is not prepared for if it fails to meet its new targets. The campaign group is calling for a back up plan to make sure the city is as ready as it can be for the heat we have been experiencing this summer.
She said: "It’s devastating to see Manchester’s science-based carbon budget get so casually disregarded just days after a record-breaking heatwave. The council have failed to prioritise the city’s carbon budget since declaring a climate emergency three years ago.
"The council needs to change course and take bold actions to help deliver 16 pc emissions reductions across the city every year. They should start with an investigation into failures of the Manchester Climate Change Agency and Partnership.
"Instead of properly reckoning with the scale of the challenges and identifying the causes of failure, Manchester City Council seems hell-bent on pretending they everything is fine."
What our leaders say
Speaking at the scrutiny meeting, the city council's deputy chief executive Carol Culley, who represents the town hall on the Manchester Climate Change Partnership which is responsible for overseeing progress on the action plan, welcomed the update, but said its findings and recommendations are 'scary'. She said: "We've kind of stuck our neck out as a city in a way.
"I'm not aware of anybody else - or many others - that have, in terms of being really clear both about the carbon budget that we have to work within and the scale of the actions required to address that."
However, she said the city doesn't have all of the 'tools in the box' it needs. Speaking after the meting, Labour councillor Tracey Rawlins, who is the executive member for the environment at Manchester council, echoed this.
She said: "Manchester was one of very few cities brave enough to set a science-based carbon budget and it is nonsense to suggest this is being 'disregarded.' On the contrary, the revised citywide framework confronts the challenge head on and spells out the scale of what needs to be done.
"No one is shying away from that. This requires collective action not just from the council, but from businesses, organisations and residents across the city.
"But the framework also recognises that central government policy changes and funding will also be critical to the success of this mission. We should all be lobbying for the changes which will enable us to meet our targets."
Mike Wilton, who is the chair of the Manchester Climate Change Partnership, added: "We know that many members of the Partnership, including the city council themselves, are on track to meet their climate targets. However, the data tells us that Manchester, as a city, is behind where we need to be.
"This comes as no surprise. Bodies such as the United Nations, and the UK’s Climate Change Committee have made clear that the world is not on track to avoid a damaging 1.5 degree rise in global temperatures. Some UK cities, including Manchester and London, have already looked at their data and set out accelerated action plans.
"We are sure other UK cities, when they look at their data, will come to the same conclusion. As I said to the scrutiny committee, this is not a plan where we can pick one or two key issues for action.
"To get back on track we need to address all the areas of action identified. There is no back up plan, because we know the implications of failure to act.
"However, the Agency will continue to report progress on our climate target, as it has for a number for years, and we will identify those further actions as are required by the evidence. Our work will not end with the final endorsement of the 2022 Update later this year by the members of the Partnership, including the council.
"We are already starting to work with organisations in Manchester to help deliver the actions we can control and collaborating with other organisations to help them act where we rely on the work of others. We will also keep renewing our plans, incorporating the latest data, and collaborating to identify more ways we can take climate action.
"We want to support everyone in Manchester who shares the same objectives."
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