The Texas Senate race is much tighter than many analysts expected at the beginning of the campaign, as Democratic Rep. Colin Allred is giving incumbent Ted Cruz a run for his money to the point that the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan forecaster, now considers it a "Lean Republican" race rather than a "Likely" one.
Cruz, however, is still ahead in practically all polls and favored to win. That's why Allred will face on Tuesday evening what is perhaps his best chance to sway a sizable amount of voters with three weeks to go before heading to the polls.
Both candidates will engage in their only planned debate at 7 p.m. Central time. The event will take place at the WFAA studio in downtown Dallas and will be moderated by Jason Whitely, the network's senior political reporter, and Gromer Jeffers Jr., The Dallas Morning News' political writers. There won't be a live audience. The Democrat won both coin tosses and has chosen to go first in the opening and closing remarks.
The latest poll shows Cruz ahead by four percentage points. Conducted by the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs among 1,328 likely voters, it shows the incumbent getting 50% of the support compared to Allred's 46%. Libertarian Ted Brown gets 1%.
The figure is largely consistent with other surveys released over the past weeks, where Cruz leads in the low single digits.
Allred has been making inroads, raising more than $30 million over the last three months and outpacing Cruz's $21 million. Both candidates have raised $132 million collectively since the start of the race, which is expected to be one of the most expensive Texas Senate races in the Lone Star state's history.
Allred has so far outpaced Cruz in every quarter. His campaign reported collecting 1.8 million individual contributions and $68.7 million in total receipts since its launch, along with contributions from 252 of Texas' 254 counties and an average donation of $36.57. In the press release announcing Allred's third-quarter fundraising results, campaign manager Paige Hutchinson voiced confidence less than a month from the elections, saying "This November, Colin Allred will send Ted Cruz packing for good."
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