Senator Ted Cruz has admitted that if Donald Trump’s tariffs sink the U.S. economy and drive it into recession, it could cause a 2026 electoral “bloodbath” for Republicans.
Cruz said that the impact of worldwide tariffs implemented by the White House could be the “single biggest determinant” for Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections.
Friday saw the Dow drop 2,200 points, wiping out a stunning $6 trillion from the market in just two days.
The Texas lawmaker has not been shy about his skepticism of Trump’s sweeping tariffs, acknowledging that American consumers will likely pay more because of them.
Cruz warned that if the tariffs are not a negotiation tactic and they end up being permanent, they could raise prices, destroy jobs, damage the economy, and increase inflation – all aspects of a recession.
"If we go into a recession, particularly a bad recession, 2026, in all likelihood, politically, would be a bloodbath,” Cruz said on his podcast, Verdict with Ted Cruz, on Friday.
“You would face a Democrat House and you might even face a Democrat Senate,” Cruz contended.
Cruz reminded people that voters tend to punish the party in power during a recession, with Republicans currently holding the White House and with a narrow majority in the House and Senate.
Trump’s sweeping tariffs on nearly every country, including the U.S.’s largest trading partners outside of Mexico and Canada, have rattled the U.S. stock market, sending the Dow and Nasdaq plummeting.
Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, warned Americans on Friday that if tariffs remain in place, they will likely cause higher inflation and slow growth, growing fears of a potential recession.
It’s unclear if Trump’s tariffs are a negotiating tactic with other countries or if they are intended to remain permanent. Cruz said if the tariffs manage to work the way the president hopes, it would be extremely successful, but it is an “enormous” risk.
“If we’re in a scenario 30 days from now, 60 days from now, 90 days from now with massive American tariffs and massive tariffs on American goods and every other country on earth, that is a terrible outcome," Cruz said.
Ben Ferguson, the co-host of Cruz’s podcast, asked the senator “how concerned” Cruz and his colleagues were about the potential negative effects of the tariffs “on a scale from one to 10.”
“42,” Cruz answered quickly.
“I believe this week may well prove the single-most consequential week in the Trump administration so far, and it may be the most consequential week in all four years of this second term of the Trump administration,” Cruz said.
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