The Liberal Democrats have become the first of the major parties to launch their full election manifesto, at an event in London. Here are the main things to know:
There are no major surprises
This could well be a theme of the manifesto launches all week – the Conservatives’ launch is on Tuesday and Labour’s on Thursday – but was particularly so for the Lib Dems. In part this is because policies tend to be leaked, briefed or otherwise kite-flown in advance these days.
But for the Lib Dems in particular, with the polls (and decades of electoral history) suggesting very strongly they will not be in government, this was more about mood music and themes than headline-grabbing new ideas. Possibly the boldest new plan, changes to capital gains tax, was seemingly so new that it isn’t even detailed in the manifesto.
There is a real focus on the NHS and social care
The changes to capital gains tax are intended to raise £5bn for the NHS, and at the launch event Ed Davey began with a description of life as a carer to his parents and now his disabled son, and how the party he leads wants to take caring “out of the shadows”.
This is in part based on current politics, with polls showing mass dissatisfaction with the state of health and dental services, but also part of an election plan to highlight Davey’s personal story, as a way of introducing him and his ideas to a wider voting public.
Much will depend on the costings adding up
Another big theme of the launch was Davey stressing how, unlike the Conservatives and Labour, the Lib Dems were not trying to pull a fast one on underplaying policy costs and overstating how much money could be brought in with things such as a crackdown on tax avoidance.
This could land well with some voters but it depends in part on how credible the calculations feel. For example, one previously announced plan to tax company share buybacks, based on a US scheme, is intended to raise more than £2bn annually. However, one tax expert, Dan Neidle, has predicted it might not raise anything at all.
Don’t mention Brexit. Or only mention it quietly
There was never any danger of Davey mimicking Jo Swinson’s 2019 Lib Dem strategy of focusing endlessly on Brexit, promising to halt it without a second referendum. Apart from the fact that Brexit has now happened, Swinson began the campaign talking about going into government, but her plan ended with the party on just 11 MPs, Swinson not among them.
The 2024 manifesto continues to fudge the question of EU membership, keeping the party’s pledge to rejoin the single market but kicking it into the political long grass. Tellingly, it doesn’t even start to get into this until 100 pages in.
This was a very professional-looking event
The Lib Dems take some pride in their modesty and homespun values – the famous and slightly cheesy props with which Davey has posed after byelection wins are made by a staffer’s family. So far this election campaign, Davey has been filmed paddleboarding and going down a water slide.
But while stressing again that he doesn’t take himself overly seriously as a politician, the launch was very smooth and took place in a hugely plush events space in north London. The Lib Dems may still be scrappy outsiders but if the polls are right they could be about to get 50 or more MPs – and that takes them back into the bigger league.
