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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Graeme Wearden and Angela Monaghan

UK car sales fall, as Jaguar Land Rover issues hard Brexit warning - as it happened

The production line at Tata Motors Ltd.’s Jaguar assembly plant in Castle Bromwich, UK.
The production line at Tata Motors Ltd.’s Jaguar assembly plant in Castle Bromwich, UK. Photograph: Bloomberg/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Closing summary

That’s all for today. Here’s a brisk summary

UK car sales fell last month, as the diesel crisis continued to hurt the sector. Sales were down 3.3% compared to a year earlier, with diesel registrations tumbling by 28%.

Economists blamed uncertainty over diesel’s future, after the emissions-rigging scandal. Subdued consumer confidence may be another factor.

A string of MPs have urged the government not to risk a hard Brexit, after Jaguar Land Rover became the latest company to sound the alarm. JLR warned that £80bn of potential investment was at risk, if it couldn’t expect frictionless trade wit the EU.

There were other signs that Brexit is having a damaging impact, as the cabinet prepares for tomorrow’s crucial meeting on a customs deal. Some Brexit supporters are already unhappy with Theresa May’s latest proposal.

German business bosses said they were reluctant to invest in Britain, and investment bank JP Morgan began moving some staff overseas.

The Bank of England governor has warned that Donald Trump’s protectionist trade policies are already hurting the global economy. Mark Carney was more upbeat about the UK economy, though, sounding confident that the slowdown earlier this year was being reversed.

Goodnight!

A late newsflash from America.

US central bankers are concerned that a trade war could derail the country’s strong growth.

The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting, just released, show that:

“Most (policymakers) noted that uncertainty and risks associated with trade policy had intensified and were concerned that such uncertainty and risks eventually could have negative effects.”

But otherwise, the Fed believes that recent economic data shows that the US recovery remains robust.

It was business as usual for Jaguar Land Rover’s tens of thousands of workers today, despite worries about the company’s future under a hard Brexit.

One worker at JLR’s plant in Solihull feared trouble ahead, telling the Guardian:

“It’s only a matter of time before something bad happens, isn’t it? We can’t keep on being so lucky,”

Another, though, argued that JLR had invested too much in the site to simply walk away.

“They have put billions into this and we hear all the time they are planning future investments on this site.

More here:

The CBI’s head of EU negotiations, Nicole Sykes, explains why UK firms are now going public with their Brexit concerns:

Here’s our Q&A about the risks of a hard Brexit to Britain’s car industry:

European markets rise thanks to tariff hopes

Europe’s stock markets have closed higher tonight, despite the ongoing Brexit tensions.

The rally seems to be spurred by suggestions that America might row back on plans for new tariffs on European car imports, if the EU lowered its own tariffs.

David Madden of CMC Markets explains:

Equity markets are in positive territory as it was reported that the US might not impose a 20% tariff on EU cars.

This was met with a positive reaction, and it was reported that Angela Merkel might give her support to lower the EU’s tariff on US cars.

Traders welcomed the news as it suggests the trade talks are moving in the right direction.

This has sent shares in European carmakers higher, with Volkswagen up 4.2%, Daimler gaining 3.8% and BMW up 3.6%. That propelled the German DAX index up by over 1%

Britain’s FTSE 100 gained 30 points, or 0.4%, to 7,603.

It’s all kicking off at Westminster, as the paperwork for tomorrow’s showdown cabinet meeting leaks.

According to The Spectator, the paperwork explains that Britain would commit to “ongoing harmonisation with EU rules on goods”. Such a move might address the concerns voiced by carmakers over tariff and non-tariff barriers.

But (the magazine claims), this could make it harder for Britain to strike a new trade deal with America.

Political editor James Forsyth says:

Brexiteers are taking this as Theresa May effectively ruling out a post-Brexit trade deal with the US just days before the US President arrives in this country.

However, Downing Street are now denying this interpretation, saying Britain is “absolutely” still seeking a bilateral trade deal with the US after Brexit.

But getting a deal that suits America could be harder, if Britain is committed to Europe’s agricultural standards, for example (the chlorinated chicken problem....)

Our Politics Live blog has all the details:

Away from the UK’s Brexit problems.... we have some solid economic data from America.

US service sector companies have posted their strongest growth in four months, thanks to a pick-up in sales and new orders.

That matches yesterday’s solid UK service sector data - which also showed growth at a four-month high.

Some of Germany’s most powerful businesses have warned that Brexit uncertainty is putting them off investing in the UK.

Our colleague Lisa O’Carroll reports:

Germany Industry UK, which represents 100 companies, including BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Lufthansa, the train and bus operator Arriva and the steel producer ThyssenKrupp, said it needed “certainty and clarity about the way forward sooner rather than later”.

Bernd Atenstaedt, the chairman and chief executive of GIUK, said it was frustrating for his member businesses because they still did not know what a post-Brexit Britain would look like two years after the referendum.

“There is some reluctance from German business to invest in the UK with projects on hold because of the uncertainty about the future and with only nine months left before the UK leaves the EU, time is running out,” he said.

Updated

Reuters: JP Morgan begins Brexit talent transfer

JP Morgan's London HQ

JP Morgan isn’t waiting to the British cabinet to agree what kind of Brexit it wants.

According to Reuters, the investment bank has begun the process of moving staff from the City to continental Europe. A small first wave of employees will lead the way in the coming months.

Here’s the story:

JPMorgan Chase & Co has asked “several dozen” employees to lead a first wave of relocations from the UK to continental Europe by early next year, as it pushes the button on plans to protect its business post-Brexit, according to a memo sent to staff on Thursday and seen by Reuters.

The memo, the first Brexit-related mass communication to JPMorgan’s 16,000-strong UK workforce this year, highlights the organisational and strategic challenges facing global banks as they prepare for Britain’s exit from the European Union.

It comes a day before Prime Minister Theresa May is due to host crunch talks with ministers at her country residence Chequers on how she wants to shape Britain’s future trading relationship with the soon-to-be 27-member club.

Signed by Daniel Pinto, chief executive of JPMorgan’s Corporate & Investment Bank and Mary Erdoes, chief executive of the bank’s Asset & Wealth Management division, the email also outlined JPMorgan’s plans to beef up its presence in several other EU cities including Paris, Madrid and Milan.

Last year JP Morgan also bought an office block in Dublin, which could help it reshape its operations after Brexit.

Theresa May’s spokesman insists the PM is listerning to British businesses about Brexit.

He told reporters in Westminster:

“The PM has been very clear that we take the views of business seriously and we also know the importance of providing certainty as we leave the EU,” the spokesman told reporters.

We are looking forward to providing further details in the white paper.”

That white paper will outline the government’s preferred customs arrangement with the EU. It should be published after tomorrow’s crunch cabinet meeting at the PM’s country residence, Chequers.

May isn’t short of views from British businesses either.

Jaguar Land Rover is only the latest in a string of firms to go public with their concerns. Other anxious groups include:

  • Airbus, which is threatening to move aircraft wing production out of Britain
  • BMW, which says it could close UK plants if it can’t import components from the EU quickly and reliably after Brexit
  • The Professional and Business Services Council, which warned the PM that lawyers, accountants, surveyors et al need mutual recognition of qualifications, regulations and legal judgements
  • The British Chambers of Commerce, which pointed out that virtually no progress has been made on the issues worrying businesses

Cable: JLR aren't bluffing

Former business minister and Liberal Democrat leader Vince Cable has weighed in on Jaguar Land Rover.

He says JLR isn’t messing about and urges the Conservatives to treat business with more respect.

“When I was in government I worked very closely with Jaguar Land Rover. It took some considerable effort to get JLR committed to the UK.

“I got to know Ralf Speth well enough to know that he’s not bluffing when he says JLR’s position is a hard Brexit would make the company’s position in the UK untenable.

“The Conservatives should listen. But there’s no evidence that they are willing to treat major employers with anything other than complete contempt.”

Jim Pickard of the FT has heard that Speth is feeling more and more “distressed” about the impact Brexit will have on his company.

The JLR plant at Halewood in Liverpool, northwest England.
The JLR plant at Halewood in Liverpool, northwest England. Photograph: Paul Ellis/AFP/Getty Images

Ouch. Labour MP Alison McGovern has roasted Owen Paterson for his claim that a hard Brexit would be good for JLR.

McGovern points out that tariffs aren’t the only worry. Non-tariff barriers (such as ‘rules of origin’ restrictions, or time-consuming border checks) could hit sales and gum up supply chains.

McGovern says:

“It is quite stunning that Owen Paterson thinks himself better placed to comment on Jaguar Land Rover’s future than their own CEO. Perhaps even more striking is his obvious total ignorance of the just-in-time supply chains which make the car industry profitable, and the fact that it is not tariffs, but non-tariff barriers which would be the major obstacle to manufacturers in a no-deal Brexit.

People in manufacturing towns across Merseyside, the North and the Midlands know all too well what it feels like when Tories show they just don’t care about our communities and our families’ livelihoods, and they will not stand for it. To protect jobs in the manufacturing industry, the only feasible solution is to stay in the Single Market and the Customs Union.”

McGovern’s Wirral South constituency includes the Vauxhall car plant at Ellesmere Port, and is also close to JLR’s Halewood plant.

Jack Dromey MP

Labour MP Jack Dromey fears that jobs could be lost at Jaguar Land Rover’s Castle Bromwich plant, in his Birmingham Erdington constituency.

Dromey says there is “profound and growing concern” about the impact of Brexit on Erdington, and the wider UK economy.

He points out that manufacturers rely on seamless movement of parts to and from Europe, which would be threatened by non-tariff barriers in a hard Brexit.

The nature of the automotive industry and ‘just in time’ arrangements mean that without frictionless trade with our closest trading partners, businesses cannot function and trade properly. Thousands of lorries go backwards and forwards every week to and from the continent.

Dromey adds that JLR adds billions of value to the UK economy each year, and is a vital employer.

We cannot allow the will of the hard-right Brexiteers to drive the UK down a deeply damaging road which would be disastrous for British business and British workers.

“In one of the poorest constituencies in the country, the Jaguar plant has transformed the lives of thousands of workers. It would be tragic to see those opportunities snatched away from the thousands still out of work.”

Stephen Phipson, chief executive of EEF, the manufacturers’ organisation, is urging ministers to heed JLR’s concerns about a hard Brexit.

Phipson points out that jobs are also at risk at the many small companies who supply parts to the company.

“This clearly underlines the reality being faced by the manufacturing sector. This is not just an issue for big companies, however, but those SMEs who are also heavily exposed in the major supply chains and, as yet, are unable to know what scenario they are planning for.

Time is now running out to secure the frictionless and tariff free relationship we need with the EU if there are not to be serious consequences right across UK industry.”

Maria Eagle
Maria Eagle

Labour MP Maria Eagle fears that Jaguar Land Rover’s Halewood car plant, in her Garston and Halewood constituency, is at risk from a hard Brexit.

Eagle says:

“Such a move would mean the end of JLR’s Halewood plant, the end of car manufacturing in South Liverpool and the needless destruction of thousands of the best private sector jobs in Liverpool.”

“I am shocked but not surprised at this stark yet realistic warning from JLR chief executive Prof Ralph Speth about the appalling effects of the extreme Tory hard Brexit supported by half the Cabinet & a hardline cabal of Brexit extremists”

Updated

Nissan, which employs around 7,000 people at its Sunderland car plant, says:

“Nissan continues to work with the UK government to ensure the company’s long-term success and investment in the UK”

Getting back to Jaguar Land Rover.... and Owen Paterson’s claim that Brexit is a super opportunity for carmakers is getting short shrift:

It’s official: An England World Cup win would be good for the economy, according to the Bank of England governor.

Thanks to dapper manager Gareth Southgate’s success, retailers are already enjoying a ‘waistcoat bounce’.

This chart from Mark Carney’s speech shows just how damaging the Bank believes a trade war could be:

Carney trump

Mark Carney appears to be getting into the World Cup spirit:

Carney: Trump's tariffs are weighing on global economy

Mark Carney has also used his speech in Newcastle to warn on America’s trade tariffs. Richard Partington reports:

Donald Trump has received yet another warning over the threat to the global economy from his mounting trade disputes around the world - this time from the governor of the Bank of England.

Speaking in Newcastle, Mark Carney said the president’s growing use of trade tariffs were already having an effect on the world economy by causing a slowdown in exports and for manufacturing.

But he warned the situation could get much worse. Should the US raise import tariffs by a further 10% on all of its trading partners, that could knock as much as 2.5% off American growth and 1% off global output.

It’s a conservative estimate, because this would be through the direct impact on trade channels alone. Things could get worse still should companies put investments on hold amid the political turmoil. It could also lead to higher borrowing costs, he says.

Mark Carney: confident Q1 slowdown was temporary

Mark Carney addresses the Northern Powerhouse Business Summit Boiler Shop in Newcastle
Mark Carney addresses the Northern Powerhouse Business Summit Boiler Shop in Newcastle. His comments will be taken as a signal that rates will rise in August

Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, is speaking in Newcastle, where he says he is more confident now that the slowdown in the UK economy in the first quarter - when growth was just 0.2% - was temporary because of the disruption caused by bad weather.

Investors reaction immediately, reading the comments as the latest signal from the Bank that interest rates will rise in August.

The pound is currently up 0.1% at $1.3247, having hit an intraday day high of $1.3262.

Speaking at the Northern Powerhouse Business Summit, he said:

Domestically, the incoming data have given me greater confidence that the softness of UK activity in the first quarter was largely due to the weather, not the economic climate.

Rebecca Long Bailey, Labour’s shadow business secretary, said Jaguar Land Rover’s Brexit warning should be ringing alarm bells for Theresa May.

This stark warning from one of the jewels in the crown of British automotive manufacturing should be a klaxon call to Theresa May and her cabinet. They cannot continue to spar with each other and play ideological games whilst British jobs and industries are being pushed off the edge of a cliff.

Uncertainty is already hurting investment and if the Government cannot provide urgent assurances to business on negotiating a deal that secures frictionless trade with the EU, our biggest export market, 40,000 jobs at Jaguar Land Rover and countless supply chain businesses could be lost in the blink of an eye, devastating our world leading automotive sector along with the communities that support them.

Sean Kemple, director of sales at Close Brothers Motor Finance, says consumer nervousness contributed to the drop in UK car sales last month.

June saw the SMMT release a harsh warning about the impact of Brexit on both production output and demand to the UK motor industry, and we’ve certainly seen some hesitance from consumers when it comes to big ticket purchases.

This is exacerbated by the uncertainty around diesel, which is having a fierce impact on diesel sale figures.

Here’s Ian Gilmartin, Head of Retail & Wholesale at Barclays Corporate Banking, on the drop in car sales last month:

“A dip in overall new car sales is no surprise considering the plethora of challenges being faced by sellers. The industry has rightly been more vocal in recent weeks, with the lack of clarity around what the playing field will look like for the motor market post-Brexit growing. As we saw with Jaguar Land Rover’s warning this morning, patience is running out for both manufacturers and retailers, with all parts of the industry hoping to see some material progress to allow them to plan for the future.

As today’s data shows it’s not just a trade issue, with wider questions over diesel policy posing another headache for operators as diesel purchases fell by almost a third in June.

The sector has to focus on delivering more environmentally efficient vehicles, but diesel cars have a part to play in this and consumers need reassurance that a diesel purchase is still a sensible move.”

Conservative MP Owen Paterson thinks Jaguar Land Rover are wrong to worry about a hard Brexit.

Paterson, a Brexit supporter, told Radio 4’s Today programme that JLR would be in a “wonderful position” once Britain has left the single market and the customs union.

Paterson argues that it’s wrong to assume that tariffs would be imposed on goods travelling into the UK from Europe.

He points out:

“If we go to WTO terms, we set our tariffs and we can choose to have no tariffs.”

He added out that JLR was enjoying strong sales in China - why shouldn’t that continue after Brexit?

I think there’s a few problems with this view, though.

  1. There’s no guarantee that the EU won’t set tariffs on UK goods crossing the channel, in the event of a hard Brexit. JLR sold almost 2.5 million cars in Europe in the last quarter, compared to almost 475,000 in the UK.
  2. New customs checks at the UK-EU border could slow the movement of goods, if the two sides aren’t committed to ‘regulatory equivalence’. That might ruin the ‘just-in-time’ production strategies developed by many large manufacturers to improve productivity and cut down on waste.

Wirral West Labour MP Alison McGovern says the government must heed JLR’s warning that a hard Brexit could wipe out its UK profits.

She says:

“Ahead of Friday’s behind-closed-doors Brexit summit at Chequers, the news that Jaguar Land Rover says a hard Brexit outside the Single Market and the Customs Union would make it impossible for them to remain profitable in the UK should send shockwaves through the political establishment.

UK car sales drop

Newsflash: UK car sales fell by 3.5% in June, as drivers continue to shun diesel motors.

Some 234,945 new cars were registered across Britain last month, the Society for Motor Manufacturers and Traders reports.

That’s down from 243,454 a year ago, and ends a two-month run of rising sales.

UK car sales in June
UK car sales in June Photograph: SMMT

In total, UK car sales in 2018 are down 6.3% so far this year, following declines in the first quarter of 2018.

Sales of diesel cars slumped by 28%, as the emissions-testing scandal continues to hit demand. Petrol sales rose 12%, while electric vehicles sales jumped 45% (but at 15,549, that’s only 6.6% of the market).

The SMMT blames the slump in diesel sales on “continuing consumer uncertainty over future policy towards this technology”. Some cities are already moving towards ‘clean air’ zones in which more polluting vehicles are banned.

Where could JLR jobs be lost?

The West Midlands and Liverpool could be badly hit if Jaguar Land Rover cuts investment in the UK or moves production overseas because of Brexit.

The company runs several manufacturing plants in Britain - which have benefitted from billions of pounds in investment since bought JLR a decade ago.

  • Solihull, Birmingham: More than 6,000 people work here, producing Defender, Discovery, Range Rover and Range Rover Sport models.
  • Castle Bromwich, Birmingham: 3,200 staff produce Jaguar models, including the F-TYPE, XJ, XF and XK
  • Gaydon, Coventry: Land Rover design team are based at this engineering site, using virtual-reality technology, wind tunnels, CAD systems and a test tracks to develop new models
  • Halewood, Liverpool: More than 4,00 people work at this 300-acre site, producing the Range Rover Evoque and the Land Rover Discovery Sport.
  • Whitley, Coventry: JLR’s global headquarters is based here, along with Jaguar Design and Jaguar Land Rover’s corporate staff.
  • Wolverhampton: Almost 1,400 people work at JLR’s new Engine Manufacturing Centre, which the company proudly calls “one of the most cutting-edge facilities of its kind in the UK”.
    It produces low-emission 4-cylinder Jaguar Land Rover petrol and diesel engines, and is a key part of the company’s expansion strategy in recent years.

Unite: Don't play Russian roulette with car jobs

Len McCluskey.ndler/PA Wire
Len McCluskey.ndler/PA Wire

Union leaders are urging the government to heed Jaguar Land Rover’s warning, rather than play ‘Russian roulette’ with UK jobs.

Len McCluskey, general secretary of Unite, says Theresa May must heed the concerns being voiced by British business leaders, who fear new trade barriers with Europe.

McCluskey says:

“Tens of thousands of decent jobs - the sort we will need more than ever outwith the EU - are being put at risk by a Government that places its survival, indulging narrow, extremist views, above the well-being of the people of this country. This is simply not acceptable.

“So I say this to the Tory party, our jobs are not yours to play Russian roulette with. Drop your red lines and secure a decent deal, one that is to the benefit of the working people of this country.

“And if you cannot agree to put people before your ideology then move over and let a party that will get on with it.”

Earlier this week, Unite said it would push for an early general election if it wasn’t satisfied with the government’s Brexit deal.

Tata Motors: Bad Brexit isn't in anyone's interests

PB Balaji, chief financial officer at Tata Motors Group, has also weighed in, warning against new trade barriers with Europe.

Echoing JLR’s statement, Balaji declares that it’s in “no-one’s interests” to end up with a Brexit which increases bureaucracy and reduces the productivity and competitiveness of the UK Industry.

Balaji adds:

“Jaguar Land Rover and Tata Motors have always maintained that the uncertainties from Brexit are avoidable and the business seeks clarity to ensure that industry takes timely and right decisions to manage the transition.

Additionally, Jaguar Land Rover needs free and full access to the single market beyond transition to remain competitive which we also firmly believe is in the best long term interests of the United Kingdom.

Tata shares hit five-year low after Brexit warning

Shares in Jaguar Land Rover’s parent company have hit a five-year low, after it warned that a hard Brexit could drive it out of the UK.

Tata Motors slide by over 4% in early trading in Mumbai, as investors worry about the impact of Brexit on its business.

Tata Motor’s share price this week
Tata Motor’s share price this week Photograph: Thomson Reuters

Tata’s shares have now lost half their value since September 2016, as Brexit stormclouds have gathered.

Tata Motor’s share price over the last decade
Tata Motor’s share price over the last decade Photograph: Thomson Reuters

As Britain’s largest car maker, Jaguar Land Rover Automotive is a crucial part of Tata Motors. JLR posted reported pre-tax profits of £1.5bn in the last financial year - partly due to stronger sales to China and the US.

The agenda: JLR in hard Brexit warning

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Britain’s largest carmaker has added its voice to the chorus of businesses warning against a hard Brexit, as negotiations with the EU (and within the cabinet) heat up.

Jaguar Land Rover piled fresh pressure on the government by warning that tens of thousands of jobs are at risk, if new trade tariffs with Europe are imposed after Brexit.

The news has knocked shares in parent company Tata Motors, and sent another shiver through Britain’s increasingly nervous auto industry.

CEO Ralf Speth quantified the impact, warning that a bad Brexit deal would wipe out more than £1.2bn of profits each year - making new investment simply impractical.

Speth declared:

“As a result, we would have to drastically adjust our spending profile – we have spent around £50bn in the UK in the past five years, with plans for a further £80bn more in the next five. This would be in jeopardy should we be faced with the wrong outcome.”

JLR (like many other businesses) needs free and frictionless trade with the EU and unrestricted access to the single market, Speth explained.

The warning is deeply alarming for JLR’s 40,000 staff, as the company’s entire future in Britain could be at risk.

As Speth put it (via the FT)

“If I’m forced to go out because we don’t have the right deal, then we have to close plants here in the UK and it will be very, very sad. This is hypothetical, and I hope it’s an option we never have to go for.”

This intervention comes a day before cabinet ministers meet to discuss Brexit. Theresa May is pushing a ‘third way’ customs agreement, where the UK tracking goods as they come into the country, and levying EU import taxes on them only if their final destination is inside the EU.

That might address some of businesses’ concerns, but hard-line Brexiteers might argue it’s not a clean break with the EU (who might reject the idea anyway).

Also coming up today:

Bank of England governor Mark Carney is speaking at a major business summit in Newcastle. He’ll be discussing the Northern Powerhouse scheme - City traders will be listening for hints about an August interest rate rise too.

June’s UK car registration data are released this morning too - they may show sales rose for the third month running.

The agenda

  • 9am SMMT car sales for June & first half of 2018
  • 10.45am: Mark Carney speaks at the Great Exhibition of the North in Newcastle
  • 3pm BST: US service sector PMIs for June

Updated

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