New U.S. tariffs are weighing on shares of e-commerce companies this week, including tech giant Amazon stock. Tariffs could slow consumer spending and cut into margins for U.S. e-commerce companies, according to Bank of America analysts, but won't hit all firms equally.
President Donald Trump on Tuesday placed a 25% tariff on most imports from Mexico and Canada, as well as increased tariffs on China imports to 20% from 10%. BofA Securities analyst Justin Post told clients Wednesday that the escalating trade conflict brings risks to supply chains, inflation and corporate earnings. There is also the potential for a slowdown in consumer spending.
For e-commerce in particular, Post said the risk is that inflation from tariffs could crowd out discretionary spending and higher costs could also eat into margins.
"While tariffs are a sector negative, we see several companies within our (e-commerce) coverage that are better positioned on a relative basis," Post said in a Wednesday client note. "First, we think platforms with large third-party selections, such as Amazon or eBay, can allow for better substitution and/or for consumers to self-select cheaper items. Secondly, many marketplace operators — Amazon, eBay, Etsy — still collect commissions on the final value of third-party sales, so higher pricing could be a tailwind."
Chewy, eBay Stock Have Less Exposure
All e-commerce stocks are vulnerable if consumers slow their spending. But Chewy and eBay have less tariff exposure, Post added. BofA estimates Chewy and eBay receive less than 10% and 5%, respectively, of goods from China. EBay also has an advantage through offering refurbished goods, Post added.
Wayfair has the largest estimated exposure to China among stocks covered by BofA's e-commerce analysts, at more than 40%. Amazon is second at 30%.
Amazon Stock: Slumping Five Straight Weeks
On the stock market today, Amazon stock is down 1.7% at 207.34 in midday trades. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told Bloomberg early Wednesday that tariffs on Mexico and Canada may be rolled back at least in part.
Amazon is on pace for a fifth straight week of declines since it reached a high of 242.52 in early February. Shares slumped 3% Monday and a half-percent Tuesday on news of the tariffs. But the e-commerce giant stock found support above its long-term 200 day average Wednesday. Amazon is also investing significantly to offer artificial intelligence services through its cloud business, and AI stocks have struggled
Meanwhile, eBay stock was a rare member of the Internet-Retail stock group tracked by IBD to close higher on Monday and Tuesday. Shares of the e-commerce marketplace company are ahead 1.4% this week. Shares are looking to bounce back after a lower-than-expected Q1 sales forecast sent eBay stock tumbling 8% last Thursday.
The 58 stocks in the Retail-Internet group tracked by IBD have lost a cumulative 3.9% this week. The group includes Amazon, eBay, Etsy, Wayfair, Chewy, DoorDash and Instacart parent Maplebear. It also includes international e-commerce stocks such Alibaba Group and MercadoLibre.
