Minneapolis-based Target Corporation (TGT) operates as a general merchandise retailer, offering apparels, accessories, pet supplies, food and beverage products, appliances, home decor, and more. Valued at nearly $62 billion by market cap, Target operates as one of the largest discount retailers in the U.S.
The retail chain has significantly underperformed the broader market over the past year. TGT stock has plunged 6.8% over the past 52-week period and dropped 37 basis points on a YTD basis, compared to the S&P 500 Index’s ($SPX) 22.8% surge over the past year and 3.4% gains in 2025.
Zooming in further, Target has also underperformed the industry-focused VanEck Retail ETF’s (RTH) 23% surge over the past year and 7.9% returns in 2025.
Target’s stock price plummeted nearly 22% after the release of its disappointing Q3 results on Nov. 20. Due to a notable drop in consumer spending on discretionary products, Target’s total revenues for the quarter increased by a modest 1.1% compared to the year-ago quarter to $25.7 billion which missed the Street’s expectations by 94 basis points. Meanwhile, the company has observed a notable surge in SG&A and other expenses which has led to an 11.3% year-over-year drop in operating income to approximately $1.2 billion. Furthermore, its EPS of $1.85 missed the analysts’ estimates by a staggering 19.2%.
Observing the lackluster year-to-date performance and macro environment, Target reduced its full-year EPS guidance from the previously announced range of $9.00 - $9.70 to $8.30 - $8.90, which shattered investor confidence.
Target is set to announce its fiscal 2025 (ended in January) results in the upcoming month, analysts expect its earnings to drop 2.8% year-over-year to $8.69 per share. The company has a mixed earnings surprise history. While it has surpassed the Street’s bottom-line estimates twice over the past four quarters, it missed the expectations on two other occasions.
Among the 33 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on 14 “Strong Buy,” three “Moderate Buy,” 15 “Hold,” and one “Strong Sell” rating.
This configuration is slightly less bullish than three months ago when 17 analysts gave “Strong Buy” recommendations.
On Jan. 28, Bernstein analyst Zhihan Ma maintained a “Market Perform” rating on TGT, while setting a price target of $142.
TGT’s mean price target of $148.33 represents a 10.1% premium to current price levels, while its Street-high target of $210 indicates a staggering 55.9% upside potential.
