Tamil Nadu, a State known for its duopoly in politics, seems to be heading towards hosting a third front in the Lok Sabha election, slated for April-May next year. The probability regarding the third front has gone up, with the AIADMK walking out of its four-year-old alliance with the BJP.
In the past 45 and odd years, there were non-DMK, non-AIADMK formations in the fray whose performance had, invariably, turned out to be a damp squib. Only once – in 2014 – a coalition independent of the two Dravidian majors could bag two Lok Sabha seats out of 38 by polling about 75 lakh votes with a vote share of 18.6%. Yet, with the BJP’s State president K. Annamalai making a serious attempt to disturb the grip of the bipolar system and acquire a strong electoral presence for his party in Tamil Nadu, the situation has become more curious this time than in the past.
As of now, allies of the DMK such as the Congress, two Left parties, Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) and Manithaneya Makkal Katchi (MMK) have reiterated their support to the ruling party and declared that they will face the electorate together. What is still not known is the decision of other parties, including Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), Tamil Maanila Congress (Moopanar), Puthiya Tamilagam, New Justice Party and Tamizhaga Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (TMMK), all of which had faced the 2019 Lok Sabha poll or the 2021 Assembly election or both in the company of the AIADMK. Though these smaller parties know that they stand better chances of victory if they face the next year’s election as partners of the AIADMK, they are also not oblivious to the possibility of the BJP forming a government in New Delhi yet again, as a result of which they are unwilling to make any definitive move at this juncture.
One probability is the breakaway group of the AIADMK, led by former coordinator O. Panneerselvam, and its present ally, Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) of T.T.V. Dhinakaran, becoming allies of the BJP. So far, the two have not openly associated themselves with the national party. It is expected in certain political quarters that the AIADMK’s former interim general secretary, V.K. Sasikala, who had stepped aside from politics at the time of the Assembly election, would also lend her support to the formation that may consist of the BJP, Mr. Panneerselvam’s camp and the AMMK.
One common feature that is discernible among the camps of Mr. Panneerselvam, Mr. Dhinakaran and Ms. Sasikala is that no harsh words are expressed openly about the BJP government at the Centre or its policies. The same quality can be attributed even now to the AIADMK and its general secretary, Edappadi K. Palaniswami, but Mr. Panneerselvam does not want to lose an opportunity in demonstrating his affinity towards Mr. Modi and Union Minister for Home Affairs, Amit Shah, which could be seen in his message of greetings to them for Deepavali. For the time being, the former coordinator of the AIADMK, who held the post of Chief Minister in three spells during 2001-2017, is involved in a key legal battle in the Madras High Court where he has challenged a single judge’s order of restraining him from using the party flag, symbol and letterhead.
The presence of a third front in the fray will always be viewed by principal players only as a spoiler. Under the given circumstances wherein the DMK-led front seems to be better placed than others, the AIADMK can be at the receiving end, thanks to such a front. However, such a possibility is being discounted both by the principal Opposition party and admirers of the BJP. As far as the AIADMK is concerned, the factor of anti-incumbency, which is brewing against the DMK regime in the State, is expected to give it a fillip without causing any split in the anti-DMK votes. As for the national party, friendly poll pundits are forecasting a “tremendous improvement” in its showing this time.
One more factor that cannot be glossed over is the role that Naam Tamilar Katchi, a Tamil nationalist party headed by film director-turned-politician, Seeman, can play. In the last Assembly election, the party had secured a vote share of about 6.6%, even though it did not win a single seat. Mr. Seeman, who recently admitted that he was being approached by the AIADMK, has been saying time and again that he will go it alone. Also, the entry of another film personality, Vijay, to politics, if materialised, can alter the present calculations of established players. Even though Mr. Vijay has not openly committed himself to taking the plunge, he is being watched closely by many.
In the end, a lack of clarity continues to prevail over the politics of Tamil Nadu.
