The announcement on Sunday that Desert Crown, last year’s Derby winner, would miss the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot next week after suffering a “minor setback” was a considerable disappointment for all concerned, not least since it arrived just 48 hours after his surge to clear favouritism for the showpiece event on Wednesday’s card following the news that Frankie Dettori had been booked for the ride.
Since we only have the bookies’ word for it, it is, of course, entirely possible that the “gamble” on Desert Crown in the latter part of last week was more of a defensive manoeuvre on their part and involved very little actual cash. But even before it emerged that Richard Kingscote, the colt’s Derby-winning rider, had been “jocked off” in favour of Dettori, the hype machine was at full throttle, as rumours emerged of a scintillating exercise gallop by the four-year-old in Newmarket on Wednesday.
So some punters, at least, are surely now in the unfortunate position that sees them heading into Ascot week already in the red. The rest of us, meanwhile, have had a useful and timely reminder of the extent to which markets can react to a jockey booking - and a Dettori-booking in particular - ahead of his swansong at the Royal meeting.
Everyone who backs horses on even a fairly casual basis will have a view on how much difference a jockey can, or might, make. For some, it is a relatively minor factor, and for others, a point of primary significance when deciding whether or not to have a bet. And this range of opinion is, for the most part, reflected by the prices on offer.
A handful of riders throughout the sport’s history, though, have had an extreme - and often disproportionate - effect on the markets, and Dettori joined a list that includes legendary jockeys like Fred Archer, Sir Gordon Richards and Lester Piggott on the extraordinary afternoon at Ascot in 1996 when he went straight through a seven-race card.
He also had the layers peering into a very deep abyss at the Royal meeting four years ago, when he rode the first four winners on Gold Cup day before finishing second by a head in the Britannia Handicap.
But with the possible exception of Saeed Suhail, Desert Crown’s owner, no-one would ever consider Dettori to be “unbeatable” at Royal Ascot, and his miserable run of form and fortune at last year’s Royal meeting is also hard to overlook. Dettori struggled to get a blindfold off Lord North before the Prince of Wales’s Stakes, then found trouble in running – for the second year in a row – on Stradivarius in the Gold Cup, and while the apparent split with Gosden was soon mended, he will be desperate to avoid any similar mishaps next week.
It could also be pointed out that while Dettori’s 30 wins at the Royal meeting in the last decade have taken him to 77 in all over the course of his career, and second only to Piggott in the all-time list, Ryan Moore has ridden no fewer than 55 in the same period. Moore is now on 73 in all, and if he does not overhaul Dettori this year, he looks sure to do so within a season or two at most.
Yarmouth
1.50 Free Step
2.20 Antiphon
2.50 Crowning
3.25 Sparkling Red
4.00 Gearing’s Point
4.30 Seraphia
5.00 Tomshalfbrother
Newton Abbot
2.00 Tommydan
2.30 Magical Maggie
3.05 Myristica
3.40 Noahthirtywored
4.10 Princess Midnight
4.40 Kolisi (nb)
5.10 Corporal Jackjones
Haydock
2.10 C’Mon Kenny
2.40 Shagpyle
3.15 Watcha Matey
3.50 Phone Tag
4.20 The Toff
4.50 Bint Al Daar
5.20 Coverdale
Kempton Park
5.05 Micks Dream
5.40 Moogie
6.10 Lady Boba
6.40 Exigency
7.10 Full Prime (nap)
7.40 Billy Mill
8.15 Imperial Cult
8.45 Where’s Tom
Hamilton Park
5.50 Hurt You Never
6.20 Scoops Ahoy
6.50 Bulls Aye
7.20 Northern Spirit
7.50 Vince Lombardi
8.25 Newyorkstateofmind
9.00 Makalu
With Dettori now several months into his pre-retirement tour, however, and with big-race wins in the 2,000 Guineas and Oaks already in the bank, the likelihood is that none of this will matter once the meeting is underway, not least if he can get off to a flying start on Tuesday, when his book of rides is due to include Inspiral, the second-favourite, in the opening Queen Anne Stakes, and Chaldean, the 2,000 Guineas winner and current favourite, in the St James’s Palace Stakes.
The current betting, after the scratching of Desert Crown, rates Dettori as the 7-4 second favourite behind Moore (at 5-4) to be the meeting’s leading rider, while William Buick, the current champion on the Flat, is a 4-1 shot. Oisin Murphy, who won the award when he last rode at the meeting two seasons ago, is also a live contender at around 12-1.
Newbury 1.50 Mabre 2.20 Enpassant 2.50 Lose Yourself 3.25 Johnjay 4.00 Flying Secret (nap) 4.30 Shobiz 5.05 Blindedbythelights
Yarmouth 2.00 Book Of Tales 2.30 Hidden Pearl 3.00 Catwalk Model 3.35 Mucky Mulconry 4.10 Eastern Charm 4.40 Mutanaaseq 5.10 Next Second
Nottingham 2.10 Foreign Exchange 2.40 Emma Emilleen 3.10 Bernadine 3.45 Temple Bruer (nb) 4.20 Dolly Gray 4.55 Hot Scoop 5.30 Storm Asset
Worcester 5.15 Mole Court 5.50 Harry The Norseman 6.20 The Boola Boss 6.50 Silver Sheen 7.20 Scarpia 7.50 Only Fools 8.25 Evenwood Sonofagun 9.00 Nibras Gold
Haydock Park 5.40 At Liberty 6.10 Star Of Mystery 6.40 Irish Nectar 7.10 Dandy Dinmont 7.40 Corinthian Kid 8.15 Bobby Dassler 8.50 Kamanika
It promises to be a fascinating subplot as the meeting unfolds, and Dettori could scarcely be in better form going into the week. Few would argue that a glorious farewell at the Royal meeting would be a no more than Dettori deserves.
But 7-4 to be the top jockey? Punters who back with their head and not their heart may well be looking elsewhere.
