In the wider scheme of a 17-game season, Week 4 is usually too early to be seen as indicative of a team's Super Bowl potential but, for the San Francisco 49ers, meeting an old foe — even on home soil — could have major implications for the rest of the year.
The Niners head back to Levi's Stadium with a 1-2 record, and coming off an ugly 11-10 loss to the Denver Broncos in a game where football definitely wasn't the winner. Wherever the blame lies — and there are plenty of fingers willing to point in various directions — this weekend's nationally-televised clash with the reigning Super Bowl champions carries additional importance for the entire franchise.
The one positive for San Fran fans to cling to in this self-imposed nadir is that Levi's has not been a happy hunting ground for the Los Angeles Rams, who have lost their last three games on the road there, stretching back to the 2019 season. Indeed, if Niners faithful want further encouragement (and they certainly need all they can get after Sunday night), they only have to remember that their team won both regular season encounters in 2021, sweeping the Rams with an overtime victory at SoFi Stadium in game 17.
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Although the Rams then ended a six-game losing streak against the 49ers when they beat them in last season’s NFC Championship game at SoFi, perhaps the Levi's 'curse' is why the oddsmakers insist on setting San Francisco as the betting favourites for Monday night's encounter.
The Rams are currently the only team in the NFC West division with a winning record through three games, having softened the blow of an opening night hammering by heirs apparent Buffalo with closer-than-expected back-to-back victories over Atlanta and Arizona, but head coach Sean McVay doesn't shy away from the outcome of any of those three games — a hardship no doubt eased by the Lombardi Trophy sitting in the Rams' trophy case — insisting that the 49ers remain 'a really good football team'.
"Which year do you want to talk about?" he asked reporters. "We could talk about all those different games, but I think, at the end of the day, what it boils down to is they’ve played well [and] they’ve made the plays in crunch time."
While going on to express his admiration for the Niners' players, coaches and style of play (remember, McVay and San Fran HC Kyle Shanahan go back way longer than their current 4-7 head-to-head record), there is some irony to be taken from his opening comment, as the red-and-gold have struggled to make plays when they really needed to so far this season. The loss of phenom QB Trey Lance has inevitably caused some disruption at the most important position on the field, with veteran backup Jimmy Garoppolo having hardly taken a snap in practice while he waited on a trade that never came. Although he looked solid in replacement duty, leading the team to victory over Seattle, Garoppolo was inconsistent in Denver, capping a scattergun night with a memefying backpedal out of his own endzone.
With the offense misfiring — its 47 points leaves San Fran 28th of 32 league-wide with only the run game breaking a statistical top 20 — the defense has stepped up to keep the team in games. The 9.3 points allowed per game is even lower than the ten points scored in two games by the offense and, even in defeat, the top-ranked defense in the NFL has kept their opponents below 20 points. With its pass rush in full effect, the defense sits ninth in converted third downs allowed; the offense, meanwhile, took ten attempts to get anything on third down in Denver, and only succeeded on its final attempt with five minutes left on the clock. The only drive to last long enough to significantly move the chains resulted in a first quarter touchdown, but a repeat of that lethargy will almost certainly spell disaster against a Rams team that, despite struggling to find its own rhythm amid injuries to key players, retains the potential to put up points.
"I thought we played real well in the first half but, in the second, I don't think anyone on offense did a good job — including myself," Shanahan conceded. "We really didn't get into a rhythm the whole time and our defense did a hell of a job keeping us in there. We weren't able to get it going and, when you don't convert a third down until [the] last drive, that's usually not a good recipe [for success]."
Like their opponents, the 49ers will also be without some key pieces on Monday night, with Lance's season-ending injury being followed by others — most notably to left tackle Trent Williams — that will keep them on the sidelines for some time. With Arik Armstead already struggling with a foot injury, Williams' high-ankle sprain and an MCL sprain for linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair (both of which could cost 6-8 weeks) leaves the team shorn of playmakers at a time when a fully healthy roster would be most welcome.
While a 1-2 record shouldn't have Niners fans reaching for tin hats to guard against the sky falling in, teams that go 1-3 have around a 12% chance of making the playoffs — and mostly by emerging as champions of a weak division. With the NFC West looking tougher than many envisaged thanks to Seattle's surprisingly competitive start to the year, San Francisco know only too well the added importance of a victory this weekend, especially with winnable games against Carolina and Atlanta next up before a tough mid-season run that begins with the return Rams fixture at SoFi.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK: TE George Kittle sums up the loss to Denver on Sunday Night Football
"The whole game was three turnovers, a safety and 1-for-10 on third down. That's just bad football"
MVP OF THE WEEK: DeMeco Ryans, defensive coordinator
There were simply too many standout performances from the 49ers' defense to give this week's award to any one on-field contributor. Instead, it might be more appropriate to honour the man pulling it all together, with Ryans again showing why he will be a contender for top NFL jobs next season.
STAT OF THE WEEK: 4/7/9
With the offense struggling to amass any stats of its own, the 49ers defense did all it could to halt the slide towards defeat by racking up four sacks, seven tackles for loss and nine QB hits against the Broncos.
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