This time last week, counsel was being urged on knee-jerk reactions to the San Francisco 49ers shock defeat at a climate-compromised Soldier Field, noting that new quarterback Trey Lance deserved time to earn his position as starter. Now, Lance no longer has that time.
The 22-year-old suffered a devastating ankle injury after being tackled on a quarterback keeper play up the gut, falling awkwardly under the weight of Seattle linebacker Cody Barton in much the same way as Dallas QB Dak Prescott did when brought down by the Giants' Logan Ryan early in the 2020 season. Ryan’s momentum was sufficient that, when his knee connected with Prescott’s ankle and the Cowboys talisman's cleats caught in the artificial turf at AT&T Stadium, he suffered a 'compound fracture and a traumatic dislocation' of the ankle. Prescott left the field in tears and those who witnessed the incident, either live or on television, will care to forget the gruesome images of his ankle and foot hanging at an unnatural angle to the rest of his leg.
Blame it on the competitive streak possessed by any professional sportsman, but Lance — like Prescott — was immediately compelled to try and stand on his injured leg. Centre Jake Brendel tried to help him, but it was immediately apparent that something serious was amiss. Prescott, meanwhile, was so determined to convince himself that nothing was wrong that he tried to straighten his contorted limb by hand, before having to accept the horrible truth.
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“I don’t know what I was doing trying to bang on my leg,” he reflected a year after the injury. “I know I was trying to just get it right, make it look normal so I could get off the field. When I look back, it’s like, ‘What am I doing?’"
Like Prescott, Lance left his home field on a cart, his leg immobilised in an air cast as teammates offered condolences. Like Prescott, the youngster now faces surgery and a lengthy rehabilitation period, even if full details of the injury have yet to be released. Like Prescott, the dual-threat quarterback will need a healthy ankle to return at anything like full potential, relying on the joint to both help drive passes downfield and power him through gaps in the run game that makes him such a threat – a threat deemed worthy of the 49ers trading multiple first round draft picks to go up and get him in 2021. Any loss of push-off or mobility will leave him less likely to make those plays, and more of a sitting duck for marauding defenders, both of which will make front office talent evaluators think twice about using him.
Lance's future is doubly compromised by his injury, however. Even if he makes a full recovery after surgery, he will — thanks to a combination of COVID-19 and then sitting out most of his rookie year in the NFL — have only played five games in three years. And only one full season at the North Dakota State before that. This year was all about accelerating Lance's development through real-time engagement. Now, it is fair to wonder about his long-term development.
"It's always tough, especially when it's a big [injury] like that," 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan said after the game. "You feel for the player so badly — it's a sad moment. Obviously, we were happy with the win, but it's a little sobering when you get back to the locker room."
Lance started only two games in his rookie season, filling in for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo, but suffered a knee sprain in the first, against the Arizona Cardinals, and subsequently struggled, not only with the after-effects of that injury, but also a broken finger suffered in a preseason game, all of which limited opportunities to increase his playing time.
Now, with a similar dearth of games in his high school career, Lance is likely to find himself in a difficult situation on his return, especially as having already sat out his rookie NFL campaign, decisions on a possible contract extension will hinge on whatever he can accomplish should he be able to get back on the field in 2023. With a quarterback's development cycle shortening all the time, and teams keen to know what they have after two years, Lance and the 49ers will be working on a different timeline to most. Will the front office and coaching staff be patient enough to see how he is when — or dare it be said 'if' — he returns to action? Will another bright, shiny object have taken their fancy? Will Garoppolo have the sort of season that suddenly makes him the obvious starter going forward? Lance's talent ceiling was already the subject of debate, just like San Francisco's decision to trade up and grab him in the draft, with the team prepared to forgo early season wobbles in the hope of him blossoming into the prospect envisaged by the time he led them into the playoffs. Now that scenario is on hold for at least another twelve months — and may never be resolved.
"There's no precedent [for a player returning with so little experience]," Shanahan admitted. "It's unfortunate for him, we're really hurting for him, and we were hoping to see a lot from him this year. To have that bad an injury, that he can't come back from it [this season], we really feel for him but, if anyone can do it, it's Trey."
Lance was 2-of-3 for 30 yards passing, and had run three for another 13 yards, at the point he was injured, making way for perhaps the best decision that , Deebo Samuel aside, the 49ers made all offseason. Despite having trained off to the side of the main field, Garoppolo — who could not find a taker while on the offseason trade block and installed a no-trade clause in his new 49ers contract — insisted that getting back under centre early in the second quarter was 'like riding a bike'. Although still wary of his own limitations stemming from a recently repaired shoulder, that past experience was enough to guide San Fran to victory and a 1-1 record through two weeks.
Now, the Niners will head to Denver to take on a sluggish Broncos team dealing with issues of their own. Adding Lance was always about a bet on a player’s upside rather than his floor; Garoppolo is a point of stasis. He guided the Niners to within a throw of winning the Super Bowl (which he missed), and was a dropped Jimmy Ward interception away from taking them to another title game.
Drafting Lance was a bet on the long-term, that his skills could coalesce into something approaching a football supernova. There were always going to be lows, but the hope was that he could raise the ceiling beyond Garoppolo by the time the postseason rolled around.
That's done. The Year of Trey Lance is over. Welcome to the second coming of Jimmy Garoppolo.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK:
Kyle Shanahan on whether Jimmy Garoppolo was any different on his return
"He's still the same. He looks good. Still handsome."
MVP OF THE WEEK:
Talanoa Hufanga, safety
It would be easy — and understandable — to put second-year safety Talanoa Hufanga in this spot for a second straight week of pass breakups and tackles but, instead, defensive end Nick Bosa gets the nod as the 49ers line made life tough for Seattle's opening week hero, QB Geno Smith. Bosa finished the game with two sacks, but got in Smith's grill a lot more than that.
STAT OF THE WEEK:
13/21 for 154
Forced into action with the game barely into its stride, Jimmy Garoppolo produced a solid return, throwing for 154 yards on 13 completions, including a touchdown to TE Ross Dwelley. Ironically, perhaps, he also salted the game away with a rushing TD of his own.
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