Taiwan's recent presidential election has raised concerns about escalating tensions between the self-governing island and China. The election resulted in the victory of Lai Ching-de, the current vice president and member of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Lai's win comes amidst a backdrop of differing attitudes towards China, with Lai holding pro-independence views while his rivals favored warmer relations with Beijing.
Lai Ching-de, a seasoned politician with prior national and local positions, has been a long-time supporter of Tsai Ing-wen. However, China perceives him as a diehard pro-independence advocate, which may lead to potential tensions between Taiwan and China.
Contrary to popular belief, most Taiwanese citizens do not advocate for independence, according to polling data. The majority simply want to maintain the status quo, considering themselves de facto independent. Lai received only 40% of the votes, while the other two candidates, who endorsed closer ties with Beijing in different ways, combined for 60% of the votes. These results suggest that a majority of Taiwan's population may be uncomfortable with a more assertive anti-Beijing stance and lean towards maintaining the current situation.
China's viewpoint of the election and its relationship with Taiwan is influenced not just by Taiwan's actions, but also by the actions of the United States. Recent developments in US-China relations, particularly since the Biden-Xi summit, have brought some stability to the bilateral dynamic. While competition remains a defining characteristic of the US-China relationship, there have been critical engagements between the two countries leading up to the Taiwan election, such as military talks and high-level meetings. These engagements may provide a counterweight to China's perception of the election results.
In a demonstration of support for the newly elected president, senior US officials are set to travel to Taiwan. The message Joe Biden intends to convey through these envoys is that the United States supports the democratically elected president of Taiwan and maintains a consistent policy towards the island regardless of who holds office. The officials are expected to meet with Lai and representatives from other political parties, including the Kuomintang Party and the Taiwan People's Party, who fielded presidential candidates in the election.
The outcome of Taiwan's election, combined with US-China relations, will have implications for the future of Taiwan-China relations. As the leaders of both countries navigate these dynamics, concerns remain about the potential for conflict and the maintenance of stability in the region.
