Russia's war in Ukraine has created ripples around the world, revealing an undercurrent of concern among the people of Taiwan that they, too, could be vulnerable to invasion.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping's refusal to criticise Vladimir Putin's war has raised concerns that Beijing is watching Russia's invasion with an eye to a future conflict for control of the island.
Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen has played down comparisons with Ukraine, using a speech last week to declare "fundamental differences", including the "natural barrier of the Taiwan Strait".
While many Taiwanese analysts share her assessment, there are still uneasy parallels, including authoritarian leaders who stoke nationalism, historical claims to territory and a focus on specific leaders and parties as valid targets.
"China's passive role in this Ukraine crisis is very embarrassing and awkward," said Kuo Yujen, a China specialist at National Sun Yat-sen University in Taipei.
"But I definitely believe China will study at least two things from it: Putin's military strategy and the responses of the US and the international community."
Professor Kuo argues both these factors would make Mr Xi and the Communist Party leadership less confident about using force in future.
"I believe the Ukraine crisis will lower China's ambitions to … conduct a similar invasion [of] Taiwan," he told the ABC.
But the intensity of public discussion of the topic in Taiwan this week speaks to the underlying anxiety.
Taiwan looks to shore up US support
In the opening days of the Russian invasion, Taiwan's Foreign Ministry joined Western-led sanctions and released a statement that reflected how close to home the conflict is.
"The government deeply regrets that Russia, instead of resolving disputes through peaceful diplomatic negotiations, has chosen to use force and intimidation to bully others," the statement read.
As the Russian attacks on Ukraine reached a new level of brutality this week, former US officials have been visiting Taiwan.
On Tuesday, a group of former defence officials including a one-time head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff flew into Taipei.
Separately, Mike Pompeo, the Trump-era secretary of state known for a confronting set of policy stances towards China, arrived on Wednesday.
In both cases, Taiwan's government warmly welcomed them — an embrace reflective of Taiwan's vulnerability to the giant next door and the hope of American support.
Chinese Air Force flights into Taiwan's Air Defence Identification zone are now so routine that they rarely make headlines.
The annual defence budget for China now stands at around $300 billion, second only to the US.
And with each year, Beijing's spending and technological advantage over Taiwan widens.
Wang Ting-yu, a parliamentarian with the ruling DPP party and a member of Taiwan's Foreign Affairs and National Defence Committee, said the US was doing what it could to offer solidarity.
Opposition politicians from the KMT party, seen as being more open to engagement with China, also met the visiting American delegation this week, although some KMT figures have been less strident in their criticisms of Russia.
"The Ukraine-Russian war reminded us of the importance of peace, and also let the Taiwanese people witness the cruelty of war," party chairman Eric Chu Li-luan wrote on Facebook.
He urged senior KMT members to donate a month's wages to help Ukrainians, a pledge also made by the President and other politicians this week.
'The potential crisis is always there'
Just as they have in Australia, Japan and many Western countries, key buildings in the Taiwanese capital were symbolically lit in Ukrainian colours this week.
The war is dominating news programs, but protests against the Russian invasion have been small and largely limited to the city's Ukrainian community.
But some Taiwanese are joining them.
"The relationship between Ukraine and Russia is similar to the ties between Taiwan and China," said Steven Chou, a protester at a rally outside the Russian representative's office in Taipei this week.
"We are facing the threat from China for a very long time, the potential crisis is always there, and we need to be prepared and cautious."
Another protester, 70-year-old Li Yan-hsien, said he joined the rally because he hated to see Russia "bullying a smaller and weaker country".
"I will not let our young people's lives become worse and worse under the rule of mainland China."
Broader sentiment appears less concerned about China taking similar action.
A public opinion poll conducted during Vladimir Putin's military build-up last month, before the invasion, found close to two-thirds of respondents thought it unlikely China would use the Ukraine conflict as an opportunity to attack Taiwan.
But perhaps reflecting Taiwan's own vulnerability, more than 51 per cent polled by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation said they were disappointed US President Joe Biden did not plan to send American troops to Ukraine if war broke out.
American military intervention is widely seen as essential to Taiwan's defence if China were to launch an invasion.
The DPP's Mr Wang said ultimately, it would come down to the Taiwanese people.
"To protect your own country is your own responsibility, no matter how much outside help there is, the battle is yours," he said.
China has a timeline for 'unifying' with Taiwan
Xi Jinping insists the Communist Party must control Taiwan by 2049 — the 100th anniversary of the Party's Peoples Liberation Army defeating Chiang Kai-shek's nationalists, who fled to Taiwan.
The goal of unification under communist control isn't just unfinished business from China's civil war, but the most sensitive plank of Beijing's nationalistic narrative of the nation's "great rejuvenation".
And while Mr Xi has pledged "Chinese don't fight Chinese", his state media outlets routinely lash "Taiwan separatists", including the current democratically elected leadership.
It doesn't quite compare to Vladimir Putin's talk of Ukraine's democratically elected leaders being "Nazis and drug addicts", but both leaders seek to distinguish the political leadership differently from the general population that elected them.
"2049 of course is meaningful to the Communist Party and all those top leaders in China, but it really does not mean anything here in Taiwan," Professor Kuo said.
He believes China's internal debt problems and ageing population will clamp its military spending in future years, and slow down China's growing military edge.
But even if that happens, there remain big questions about whether the United States would be willing to enter a foreign war with an increasingly powerful nuclear-armed adversary.
"2049 is still too far away," Professor Kuo said.
