If Tadej Pogačar is going to cross the finish line first in Oudenaarde at the Tour of Flanders on Sunday, then avoiding a sprint finish with Mathieu van der Poel or any of his faster rivals is key. The only way to achieve a second victory will be to distance the Dutchman on the Oude Kwaremont or elsewhere on the course. He simply can’t afford to drag his main rival to the line, and he knows this too.
Two years ago he went solo on the Kwaremont with one of the most unanswerable attacks that the race has ever seen. It was brutal, calculated and simply devastating. Van der Poel was in fine form but could not live with the Slovenian's punishing acceleration, before he then disappeared and carried on the assault over the Paterberg.
Pogačar's memorable victory banished any recollections of the moment he came unstuck in 2022, somehow finishing fourth in a reduced sprint for the line. Van der Poel was the man that came out on top that year, with Pogačar visibly furious at the finish at his inability to successfully dispatch the Dutchman despite the course, on paper, favouring the bigger and more powerful rider.
When he returned to Flanders 12 months later it was clear that he had learned from that scenario. There was simply no way he was going to allow that same situation to develop again. A huge attack and all in on the Kwaremont or risk it on the drag into Oudenaarde; the answer was always the former of the two.
The same situation must play out this time around if he is going to strike even with his main rival this spring and add an eighth Monument to his collection.
"In San Remo, he beat me quite good, but this is a different race," Pogačar said this week as he looked ahead to Sunday’s race across the cobbles. "Flanders is a little bit more tiring, and it's going to be harder throughout the day. But I'm here to race for the victory, so I will give my best to try and win.
"Maybe I can be better after six hours, but he's in super good shape," he added. "I just try to get a little bit of a gap at some point in the race and try to use that. But there are so many opportunities, and options that can happen on Sunday, I just need to grab one and hope for the best."
Typically, the Slovenian gave little away with modest and unassuming answers when assessing his chances of getting one back over the Dutchman. Pogačar, though, is not out for revenge, he simply doesn’t operate like that. He uses his own will to win and hunger to be the best to drive him on. He does not consider being beaten by a rider of the calibre of Van der Poel - who in his own right is arguably one of the greatest Classics riders of all time - as a reason to feel bitter.
"I don't know why I would be looking for revenge when nobody did anything bad to me," he said of their most recent duel at San Remo. "It just needs to be a hard race, and maybe he's tired in the end."
A hard race, something Pogačar is capable of ensuring Flanders becomes in an instant. Expect endless explosive attacks once the likes of the Koppenberg, Oude Kwaremont and Paterberg climbs arrive. Pogačar won’t fancy a sprint after the mauling he received on the Via Roma just a fortnight ago. It's all in or nothing, attack on the climbs and go from range.
Pogačar won't have it all his own way, with Van der Poel at the front of a long queue of riders looking to prevent him from winning. But if he can create that situation for himself out on the road, then he will be well on the way to potential victory.
See also: How to watch Tour of Flanders 2025
