Tadej Pogačar isn’t supposed to lose. The world champion is victorious in almost everything he turns his hand to, especially when the race is a hilly affair, and he has launched his trademark solo attack. There would have been those who thought about turning their television off after the UAE Team Emirates-XRG rider attacked alone with over 40km to go at the Amstel Gold Race on Sunday. However, as at Paris-Roubaix a week before, Pogačar finished second.
When the Slovenian launches, as he did at the Tour of Flanders and Strade Bianche this season, and in all his historic victories last year from Liège-Bastogne-Liège to the World Championships, that’s usually race over. Such are the power and decisiveness that Pogačar’s attacks are made with that the chasing group almost immediately settles for a race for second place. Soon after he made his move with 45km to go at Amstel the memes were already being posted, the victory Amstel was being put on ice for him. It’s how he won here in 2023, so why wouldn’t it simply happen again?
It turns out that Pogačar doesn’t always win. At Roubaix he crashed out of contention, so we’ll never know what would have happened if he kept riding with eventual winner Mathieu van der Poel. At the Amstel Gold Race, however, he simply didn’t have the legs. Maybe it was the headwind, maybe TV motorbikes aided the chase, but ultimately there is no excuse - Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek) and Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step) caught him, 20km after Pogačar launched, and Skjelmose out-sprinted him.
Not even the winner could believe it: “I didn't believe it. It was like something was wrong.” Something did go wrong - Pogačar didn’t win. However, the fact he is fallible, not super-human, is a good thing. The Slovenian won’t enjoy not winning, twice in a week in fact, but it is good for cycling, and good for his brand too, that he doesn’t always simply win.
Sport is only exciting when there’s jeopardy, when the same thing doesn’t always happen, and the Pogacar (and Van der Poel) dominated results have made men’s cycling a little too predictable recently. Despite their explosive attacks and vibrant racing, if the winner is a fait accompli, then it’s less fun to watch. The fact that the Slovenian can lose will make the sport all the more interesting, especially when it’s not even Evenepoel who wins, but the less fancied Skjelmose. Surprises can happen. Pogačar might well go on and bounce back at Flèche Wallonne and Liège-Bastogne-Liège this week, but a glimpse of hope for everyone else is there.
As to why the Slovenian couldn’t pull off his usual trick, take a look at his schedule. It’s not so much that he has ridden loads - he has raced on 12 days so far in 2025, compared with 16 for Skjelmose, or 22 for Tom Pidcock - but that he has raced hard so often. He was at the front, or off the front, at Strade Bianche, Milan-San Remo, the Tour of Flanders, and Paris-Roubaix, all in the past month before Amstel. That level of performance is not sustainable, and it seems that the world champion is slightly below par now; where he will be at next weekend for Liège is another question. Comparatively, Roubaix winner Van der Poel raced hard at San Remo, the E3 Saxo Classic, Flanders and Roubaix, but has now stopped his spring. Pogačar has two more races to go.
Everything remains on course for the Tour de France, that is clear, and the 26-year-old will have all of May off racing before the Critérium du Dauphiné, but his packed schedule is delicately balanced. Did his decision to target Roubaix put the whole thing out of kilter? It is certainly possible.
Tadej Pogačar will win again, don’t worry. It’s just nice to be reminded that he can lose - cycling isn’t too predictable. And second place isn’t that bad.
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