John Swinney has insisted there will be “real damage done” to the NHS if opposition MSPs block his budget – claiming this could see operations cancelled and medicines rationed.
The Scottish First Minister warned of a “catastrophic reduction in service delivery” if Holyrood fails to pass the Government’s budget for the coming year.
A loss of £2 billion additional fudning planned for health care could also put planned pay rises for doctors and nurses “under threat” Mr Swinney said, adding that “strict” emergency spending limits that would have to be introduced if the budget is not approved could potentially even threaten the Government’s ability to keep the lights on.
Making his first speech of 2025, the SNP leader warned of the consequences to the NHS and beyond if opposition parties were to block the Budget Bill.
With the First Minister leading a minority administration in the Scottish Parliament, the SNP needs the support of at least one other party for the legislation to go through.
And while the SNP leader said he was “confident” the budget would pass, he added that voters would be “unforgiving of any politicians who would rather play political games”.
HIs comments came in a speech in Edinburgh where Mr Swinney made clear that the impact “of a budget failing to pass is severe”.
He added that he warned “everyone to be aware of the damage that will be done if that were to happen.”
And, while he stressed that ministers would “always seek to avoid the worst impact”, he said not passing the budget would “put at risk £2 billion of additional investment in the NHS causing a catastrophic reduction in service delivery”.
We’re working hard to avoid it, but if opposition parties block the Budget, the consequences are devastating:
— The SNP (@theSNP) January 6, 2025
❌ NHS funding slashed
❌ Cancelled operations, pay rises at risk
❌ No winter heating payments for pensioners
❌ Halted progress on teachers, housing & the A9 pic.twitter.com/xV1JtrxZvc
The First Minister said: “Operations would likely have to be cancelled, nurses’ and doctors’ pay rises would be under threat, medicines might have to be rationed.”
Describing the NHS as “bruised”, he said action was needed now to tackle problems such as waiting times.
The First Minister accepted that “too many people wait too long for that first diagnosis” and waiting times for treatment “for some remain unacceptably long”.
But he said passing the budget would deliver more funding for health care with a “solution” to NHS problems including more operations, new hospitals and easier access to GPs.
But Mr Swinney added: “For all of this, the NHS needs this budget to pass.”
He insisted that passing the budget “is the first major step to ensuring 2025 is a year of improvement and progress for Scotland”.
In contrast, the First Minister claimed any failure to pass the budget would see “strict” emergency arrangements come into effect, which would mean Scottish Government departments could not increase spending from this year’s levels, with money only to be spent on measures outlined in the 2024-25 budget.
Spending would also be limited to month by month, Mr Swinney added, saying: “As an example it might mean we cannot spend any more money on health and social care in April 2025 than we did in April 2024.”
He questioned how pay rises and rising energy bills could be met in such a scenario, with the First Minister stating: “If the electricity or gas bill in a public building rises next year – and we know it is going to – how can the lights be kept on when the budget is frozen every month.”
On the impact elsewhere, he said: “It would mean: no universal heating payments for pensioners; the record increase in arts and culture funding halted; fewer teachers and no new money for additional support needs; increased funding for affordable housing lost.”
This, he said, would result in “real damage to the very fabric of our public services” with “real damage inflicted on some of the most vulnerable in our land”.
In a stark message to opposition leaders at Holyrood, the First Minister said: “If party politicking results in the budget failing to pass, there will be real damage done.”
However Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar insisted the First Minister already has the votes necessary for the Budget Bill to pass, as he urged the SNP leader to “end the shadow-boxing on the budget”.
Speaking to the PA news agency Mr Sarwar said: “John Swinney knows he has the vote to pass his budget.
“We’ll, of course, continue to engage with them in good faith, but I think he clearly has support from other parties already to pass his budget.
“What we want to see from that budget, though, is not just where the money is spent, but how the money is spent.
“The reality is that John Swinney and the SNP have been passing budgets in Scotland for 17 years and things continue to get worse.”
Meanwhile, Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay accused the First Minister of “getting desperate in his bid to pass another SNP budget that raises taxes on working people without improving public services one bit”.
The Tory added: “If he wants a budget to pass, there’s a simple common sense solution – bring forward a better one that reduces tax on workers and businesses, changes public services for the better, reduces bureaucracy, and gives people more power over their own lives and what happens in their own communities.”
And the Scottish Greens hit out at “hugely overblown” comments from the First Minister that blocking the budget would risk “feeding the forces of anti-politics and populism”.
Green finance spokesperson Ross Greer said: “It is frankly daft and divisive for the Scottish Government to claim that such an important feature of our democracy is somehow fuelling dangerous political forces.”
He added: “To defeat the dangerous, billionaire-led forces of the radical right, we need to build a fairer, greener Scotland for everyone and tackle the very real public frustrations which the far right feed on, not fall in line behind a tepid SNP status quo.
“If the First Minister is prepared to be bolder, then he will have the Scottish Greens’ support.”
