Alarm bells have been ringing around USA Swimming for a year now, since Australia won 13 gold medals to America’s seven at the 2023 World Championships. Was this a sign of star-spangled decline, a sign of an international surge, or a correctable blip?
Perhaps all of the above. For the first time since 1945, no U.S. swimmer set a world record in 2023 in either long-course or short-course meters. Meanwhile, 17 world records were taken down, which is an indication of the world collectively getting faster.
But if you want to know who to bet on to top the medal count at the Summer Olympics in Paris—in both gold medals and total medals—America is still the smart choice. The top individual stars may hail from elsewhere, but the overall depth of talent still skews red, white and blue.
Here’s how I see every Olympic race breaking down:
Men’s 50-meter freestyle
Gold: Cameron McEvoy, Australia
Silver: Ben Proud, Great Britain
Bronze: Caeleb Dressel, United States
Men’s 100 freestyle
Gold: David Popovici, Romania
Silver: Pan Zhanle, China
Bronze: Jack Alexy, United States
Men’s 200 freestyle
Gold: David Popovici, Romania
Silver: Lukas Martens, Germany
Bronze: Luke Hobson, United States
Men’s 400 freestyle
Gold: Lukas Martens, Germany
Silver: Sam Short, Australia
Bronze: Kim Woo-min, South Korea
Men’s 800 freestyle
Gold: Elijah Winnington, Australia
Silver: Bobby Finke, United States
Bronze: Sam Short, Australia
Men’s 1,500 freestyle
Gold: Bobby Finke, United States
Silver: Daniel Wiffen, Ireland
Bronze: Florian Wellbrock, Germany
Men’s 100 backstroke
Gold: Thomas Ceccon, Italy
Silver: Ryan Murphy, United States
Bronze: Xu Jiayu, China
Men’s 200 backstroke
Gold: Ryan Murphy, United States
Silver: Hugo Gonzalez, Spain
Bronze: Hubert Kos, Hungary
Men’s 100 breastroke
Gold: Adam Peaty, Great Britain
Silver: Qin Haiyang, China
Bronze: Nic Fink, United States
Men’s 200 breastroke
Gold: Qin Haiyang, China
Silver: Leon Marchand, France
Bronze: Ippei Watanabe, Japan
Men’s 100 butterfly
Gold: Caeleb Dressel, United States
Silver: Josh Liendo, Canada
Bronze: Noe Ponti, Switzerland
Men’s 200 butterfly
Gold: Kristof Milak, Hungary
Silver: Leon Marchand, France
Bronze: Ilya Kharun, Canada
Men’s 200 individual medley
Gold: Leon Marchand, France
Silver: Wang Shun, China
Bronze: Carson Foster, United States
Men’s 400 individual medley
Gold: Leon Marchand, France
Silver: Carson Foster, United States
Bronze: Chase Kalisz, United States
Men’s 400 freestyle relay
Gold: United States
Silver: Great Britain
Bronze: China
Men’s 800 freestyle relay
Gold: Great Britain
Silver: United States
Bronze: Australia
Men’s 400 medley relay
Gold: United States
Silver: China
Bronze: Great Britain
Women’s 50 freestyle
Gold: Sarah Sjostrom, Sweden
Silver: Kasia Wasick, Poland
Bronze: Shayna Jack, Australia
Women’s 100 freestyle
Gold: Mollie O’Callaghan, Australia
Silver: Siobhan Haughey, Hong Kong
Bronze: Sarah Sjostrom, Sweden
Women’s 200 freestyle
Gold: Ariarne Titmus, Australia
Silver: Mollie O’Callaghan, Australia
Bronze: Siobhan Haughey, Hong Kong
Women’s 400 freestyle
Gold: Ariarne Titmus, Australia
Silver: Summer McIntosh, Canada
Bronze: Katie Ledecky, United States
Women’s 800 freestyle
Gold: Katie Ledecky, United States
Silver: Ariarne Titmus, Australia
Bronze: Simona Quadarella, Italy
Women’s 1,500 freestyle
Gold: Katie Ledecky, United States
Silver: Simona Quadarella, Italy
Bronze: Isabel Gose, Germany
Women’s 100 backstroke
Gold: Regan Smith, United States
Silver: Kaylee McKeown, Australia
Bronze: Katharine Berkoff, United States
Women’s 200 backstroke
Gold: Kaylee McKeown, Australia
Silver: Regan Smith, United States
Bronze: Phoebe Bacon, United States
Women’s 100 breastroke
Gold: Tang Qianting, China
Silver: Lilly King, United States
Bronze: Benedetta Pilato, Italy
Women’s 200 breastroke
Gold: Kate Douglass, United States
Silver: Tatjana Smith, South Africa
Bronze: Tes Schouten, Netherlands
Women’s 100 butterfly
Gold: Gretchen Walsh, United States
Silver: Torri Huske, United States
Bronze: Zhang Yufei, China
Women’s 200 butterfly
Gold: Summer McIntosh, Canada
Silver: Regan Smith, United States
Bronze: Zhang Yufei, China
Women’s 200 individual medley
Gold: Kate Douglass, United States
Silver: Kaylee McKeown, Australia
Bronze: Summer McIntosh, Canada
Women’s 400 individual medley
Gold: Summer McIntosh, Canada
Silver: Katie Grimes, United States
Bronze: Anastasia Gorbenko, Israel
Women’s 400 freestyle relay
Gold: Australia
Silver: United States
Bronze: China
Women’s 800 freestyle relay
Gold: Australia
Silver: United States
Bronze: China
Women’s 400 medley relay
Gold: United States
Silver: Australia
Bronze: China
Mixed medley relay
Gold: United States
Silver: Australia
Bronze: China
Medal Count
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Swimming Medal Predictions: Team USA Faces Tough Test at Paris Olympics.
