Summary of the day
Campaigning has continued ahead of the European elections.
Ursula von der Leyen, the European People’s party (EPP) lead candidate, campaigned in Finland.
Evin Incir, a member of the European parliament from the Swedish Social Democratic party who is running for re-election, said she is “worried that the far-right, conservative and liberal groups will join forces” in the next European parliament.
She also said that when speaking with voters “the biggest issue has been the Russian aggression against Ukraine” and that climate issues are playing a role in the election.
Arba Kokalari, a candidate for Sweden’s centre-right Moderate party, told the Guardian that “there is a general higher awareness about the EU elections, and the importance to vote.”
She said that “from the EPP side, we will be able to – I hope – be the ones that everyone wants to talk to.”
Robert Biedroń, a member of the European parliament from Poland’s New Left, said in an email that “if I should describe our goal in just one word, it would definitely be mobilisation and invitations of young voters to participate in the elections.”
Asked about the possible expansion of the European Conservatives and Reformists group (ECR), Anna Fotyga, a longtime member of the European parliament and Poland’s Law and Justice, said “I’m experienced enough to wait for election results.”
She also added that “of course, we are happy with prospects of expanding the group, but simply wait for the final results.”
Piotr Stolecki, a candidate for Poland 2050 – part of the Third Way alliance – said that “we are very worried about the turnout.”
Maria Guzenina, a candidate for the Finnish Social Democratic party, said “people are quite worried about the far-right and far-left” in Europe.
Asked about an ongoing debate in Brussels about the centre-right will open up to cooperating with parties such as Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, Guzenina said “this is a concern everybody should share, even within the EPP – this is a potential hazard.”
Ted Apter, a candidate for the Finnish centre-right National Coalition party, said that out on the campaign trail “security matters” and “our eastern border” are issues raised across the country.
Lithuania’s president, Gitanas Nausėda, has already cast his ballot – and is calling on all EU citizens to vote.
I already voted at the #EuElections2024 🇪🇺.
— Gitanas Nausėda (@GitanasNauseda) June 4, 2024
Voting is not only a duty but also a privilege given to us by democracy. It's all of us, #EU citizens, who will determine what kind of future we want & what kind of Europe we will live in.
Have your say! #VoteForEurope pic.twitter.com/MWxB9W0Mv9
Why are Green parties polling badly for the European elections?
Voters may deal Green parties a blow that costs them up to one-third of their seats, if polls before this week’s European elections prove correct, in a shift that could lead to a rollback of climate policies with the effects rippling far beyond the continent.
At first glance, the projected slump in support – which follows months of protests from farmers against environmental rules – reads like a backlash against climate policies set by politicians who tried to move too far, too fast.
But political scientists are unconvinced by that narrative. There is little data to support fears of a societal “greenlash” from voters unhappy with the costs of the transition, according to the authors of a recent survey of 15,000 voters in France, Germany and Poland.
While local evidence from the Netherlands shows how a specific climate policy can push people away from the Greens and towards the far right, on a broader level researchers have found support for climate policies falls mostly along ideological lines.
So what explains the poor polling numbers?
The most straightforward explanation is that the last European elections in 2019 may have been an outlier in terms of climate engagement – one that served Green parties particularly well.
Here’s the latest opinion polling from Germany.
People were asked how they would vote if there was a federal election.
Sonntagsfrage zur Bundestagswahl • Forsa für RTL/n-tv: CDU/CSU 30 % | SPD 17 % | AfD 15 % | GRÜNE 13 % | FDP 6 % | BSW 6 % | Sonstige 13 %
— Wahlrecht.de (@Wahlrecht_de) June 4, 2024
➤ Übersicht: https://t.co/Gzilw3JBAH
➤ Verlauf: https://t.co/FJLtuxGBaJ pic.twitter.com/Kv9jpLVlxT
Updated
Security and economic growth in focus on Finnish campaign trail, candidate says
Out on the campaign trail in Finland, “security matters” and “our eastern border” are being raised across the country, said Ted Apter, a candidate for the centre-right National Coalition party.
In a phone interview, Apter said security has been “a key topic to talk about, and also, just getting assurances that Finland is prepared for any possible situation.”
“The other topic has been quite a lot about, can we have more growth both in Finland and the European Union?” he said.
Asked about what he believes should be the next European parliament’s priorities, he said “the first focus of course should be to help Ukraine win its war” and then “continue with rebuilding Ukraine and also open up for enlargements.”
“After supporting Ukraine, it’s mostly about competitiveness and how we, for instance, change the trajectory of technological advancements,” the Finnish candidate said, underscoring that “we’re lagging behind China and the US in several key technologies.”
“What we need to do is to pool resources and do more on the European level, to put up new funding elements, which then could be given to projects that would be quality criteria based, instead of which are the biggest countries or which are the poorest countries,” he added.
Updated
'We have so much to learn from the Finns,' von der Leyen says as she campaigns in Finland
Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission and lead candidate of the centre-right European People’s party, campaigned in Finland today.
Finland has over 50,000 air raid shelters.
— Ursula von der Leyen (@vonderleyen_epp) June 4, 2024
Their preparedness aims to strengthen their resilience and to deter aggression.
We have so much to learn from the Finns.
This is the change of mindset I want to help bring during my second mandate. pic.twitter.com/xo64LKX1qD
Good morning Finland!
— Ursula von der Leyen (@vonderleyen_epp) June 4, 2024
Starting the day with a good exchange over coffee with our young friends from @kokoomus.
We have 5 days to go until the elections!
Dear friends, the moment is now! pic.twitter.com/te1B3GNVkG
Updated
Here are the latest photos from Finland.
'Mistake': Finnish candidate says everyone should be concerned about possible cooperation with Meloni
Asked about an ongoing debate in Brussels about the centre-right will open up to cooperating with parties such as Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, the Finnish Social Democratic party’s Maria Guzenina said “this is a concern everybody should share, even within the EPP – this is a potential hazard.”
“I think it would be a mistake” to bring Meloni into the centre, she stressed, arguing that the Finnish centre-right’s work with the far-right Finns party led to a “shift ignoring the green deal” and undermined Finland’s economic strength. “These should be alarm bells,” she said.
Parliament should prioritise finances and enlargement, Finnish Social Democrat says
Maria Guzenina, a well-known figure in Finland and candidate in the European elections for the Finnish Social Democratic party, said “people are quite worried about the far-right and far-left” in Europe.
“They’re worried that in those groups there are people who sympathise with Russia,” she said, adding that there is also a concern that some members of these parties don’t support green policies.
Finnish voters are also aware of competition with the US and China, she said.
Asked about priorities for the next European parliament, Guzenina pointed to the EU’s finances and enlargement policies.
The way the EU allocates its budget “should be carefully evaluated,” she said, noting that it would be “probably difficult” to ask for member states to boost financial contributions and calling for prioritising the European Green Deal.
Spotlight: the European election in Finland
Let’s shift to Finland, where voters will elect 15 members of the European parliament on Sunday.
We’ll hear from two candidates: one representing Finland’s Social Democratic party and one from the centre-right National Coalition party (Kokoomus).
Opinion polls put the Social Democrats slightly ahead of the National Coalition party.
Updated
An EU commissioner has launched a scathing attack on Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president who is seeking a second term, branding her leadership style “unacceptable”.
Nicolas Schmit, the lead candidate for the socialist bloc in this week’s European parliamentary elections, lifted the lid on the behind-the-scenes deal she had hashed out with Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni over migration from Tunisia last summer.
The deal, which offered money to Tunis, in exchange for clamping down on people smugglers, was sprung on the commissioners without notice.
“It came on a Friday afternoon and we had one hour to say no. If after one hour, you hadn’t said anything it was yes. This is unacceptable,” the Luxembourger told the Financial Times.
He said the way Tunisia treats refugees is “just shocking”, contrasting the deal with Turkey in 2016, where he said EU money was given to NGOs rather than security forces.
Schmit has previous criticised von der Leyen but not in such an explicit way.
He was recently one of the three commissioners, including French commissioner Thierry Breton, who criticised the president for the way in which she hired a small business envoy.
He also said the socialists would not be backing von der Leyen for a second term as European Commission president if she did a deal with the radical right wing political group in parliament, the European Reformists and Conservatives (ECR).
Commission spokesperson Eric Mamer told the FT the process around decisions was “collegial”.
'We are very worried about turnout', Polish candidate says citing 'fatigue'
Piotr Stolecki, a candidate for Poland 2050 – part of the Third Way alliance – said in a phone interview that “we are very worried about the turnout.”
“There is a fatigue,” he said, adding that “the political parties were very late with the with the European campaign.”
“We are trying to maximise the turnout by constantly messaging people through social media, through media, that those elections are very, very important because of the situation in Europe, because of the situation in Ukraine, etc. And not to let too many populist and right-wing parties to win the seats,” he added.
“There is a big push right now,” Stolecki noted.
Here are some images from Poland’s campaign.
Polish lawmaker 'happy with prospects' of ECR expansion but says 'wait' for results
Poland’s Law and Justice is a key member of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group in the European parliament.
There has been significant speculation that the ECR will evolve in the next European parliament – and that it could take on new members such as Hungary’s ruling Fidesz party, which is currently not a member of any European political family.
Asked about the possible expansion of the ECR, Anna Fotyga, a longtime member of the European parliament and Law and Justice, said:
“I’m experienced enough to wait for election results,” she said, adding: “it is very difficult to calculate earlier.”
Fotyga said she was “disappointed” by changes within the ECR as a result of Brexit, noting that it had a “very good composition” with the British conservatives. “Yet we managed to keep the balance,” she said.
“Of course, we are happy with prospects of expanding the group, but simply wait for the final results,” she said.
Anna Fotyga, a longtime politician from Poland’s conservative Law and Justice party and candidate in the European parliament election, said she sees the possibility of EU treaty changes, migration and global security as issues in the campaign.
In a phone interview, Fotyga said “it much depends on the region, but generally speaking, people are interested in developments within the EU.”
“I’m sceptical about the majority voting in areas like foreign affairs, security and defence,” she stressed. “I think that in order to develop consistent policies, we have to maintain the unanimity in these areas,” she said.
Fotyga added that “of course, we support Ukraine” and that “people are very much interested in migration issues, worried about the so-called compulsory solidarity mechanism imposing huge fines.”
“My major area is foreign affairs, security and defence. So naturally this topic I raise during my meetings and try to explain the current stance of the EU in these areas,” she noted.
Updated
'Mobilisation': Polish candidate stresses youth vote
Robert Biedroń, a member of the European parliament from Poland’s New Left, said in an email that “if I should describe our goal in just one word, it would definitely be mobilisation and invitations of young voters to participate in the elections.”
“They must understand the power of change they possess,” he said.
He described his party’s priorities as “social housing, improvement of women’s rights (liberalisation of abortion law as of the top at the time being), offer for young people (stop to unpaid internships, one ticket for EU travel), and last but not least subjects restoring Polish democracy after 8 years of PiS government.”
Biedroń, who in the outgoing parliament chaired the committee on women’s rights and gender equality, added:
In face of rising populism the whole EU, the European parliament campaign is taking an exceptional significance.
The choice made on 9 of June will not only shape the new European parliament but also the future of the EU.
Therefore, every day we campaign to fight the anti- EU narratives and to strength the EU integration.
Updated
Spotlight: the European election in Poland
We’ll now move on to Poland, where citizens will be electing 53 members of the European parliament.
The latest polls show the centrist Civic Coalition with a narrow lead over the conservative Law and Justice.
Swedish candidate says she hopes 'everyone wants to talk' with EPP
Asked about speculation that the centre-right European People’s party would open up to cooperation with hard-right forces from the European Conservatives and Reformists group, Kokalari – whose Moderate party is a member of the EPP – said that “the whole logic in the European parliament is that we need to negotiate together and to reach compromises.”
“I think it will continue as it’s done before, that we try to reach compromises on legislation where we can find majorities. And in some issues, it will be with some party groups, and in some other issues, it will be others. So I don’t think that will change,” she said.
She added:
What will change, I hope is that the EPP group – my party group – will have a bigger chance to affect the European policies, because as the trend looks like the liberals and the left side of the parliament will be decreasing, and then we see the parties on the far right will increase, which means that from the EPP side, we will be able to – I hope – be the ones that everyone wants to talk to.
And I think that we are very much focused on delivering results for the citizens in Europe.
Kokalari stressed, however, that there are limits.
“But of course, we also have red lines,” she said, noting that Ursula von der Leyen and her party “have set red lines that we will not accept compromising or working with parties who are against Ukraine, against Europe and against democracy and the rule of law – that is the basis for us.”
Updated
Asked what the next European parliament’s legislative focus should be, the Moderates’ Arba Kokalari said:
I think the most important thing is how we make sure to have a sustainable and fossil-free energy union in the European Union, because having fossil-free energy is the basis of the green transition - if you don’t have the energy policy, you don’t basically have a climate policy.
And it’s also a security issue. We cannot continue in Europe to be dependent on gas, oil and coal from dictatorships and from Russia.
And it’s also about the economy, our industries and our companies and the growth is really much dependent on stable, fossil-free energy.
She added:
I think also that we need to focus on strengthening our defence and security within the EU, both on how to continue to support Ukraine and also to make sure that we invest more in our own security, in the member states of the EU.
There are several things we need to do there. For example, cut the bureaucracy and those other obstacles we have … to much faster produce ammunition and defence equipment. We need to work on procurement within the EU together on ammunition.
And so we have a lot of things to do when it comes to security, and as well as digital security … We are not making a good enough effort in protecting Europe when it comes to cyberattacks and hybrid threats.
Here are some photos from the campaign in Sweden.
'Much higher interest': Swedish Moderates candidate says voters clear on importance of EU cooperation
Arba Kokalari, a candidate for Sweden’s centre-right Moderate party, told the Guardian that “there is a general higher awareness about the EU elections, and the importance to vote.”
In a phone interview, Kokalari, a member of the European parliament since 2019, noted that turnout in European elections is usually lower in Sweden than in national elections.
“But this time – and I’ve been in many campaigns, many European election campaigns, actually for the last 20 years – and this is the first time I feel that there is a much higher interest,” she said.
She added that “I think the reason for that is the Russian war in Ukraine, we’ve had the COVID pandemic … the importance of European cooperation, I think, has become very obvious and clear for the Swedish voters.”
Asked what issues voters are bringing up on the campaign trail, Kokalari said that “in general, it’s not particularly one issue that is dominating. It’s several concerns, and I would say that it’s the climate, it’s migration, it’s the fight against criminality, which is the most serious issue in Sweden right now, and of course, the support for Ukraine.”
Updated
The Swedish Social Democratic party’s Evin Incir said that when speaking with voters “the biggest issue has been the Russian aggression against Ukraine.”
Incir also said climate issues are playing a role in the election.
“The biggest challenge for people has been to understand the view of the parties,” Incir said, noting that turnout for European elections has been significantly lower than for national polls.
Parties and the media both have a role in explaining EU issues, also between elections, she stressed, arguing that there is a need to “change” how society talks about the EU.
What do the polls say about Sweden?
Voters will go to the polls in Sweden on Sunday to elect 21 members of the European parliament.
The Social Democrats are leading in opinion polls. The far-right Sweden Democrats and centre-right Moderates are neck-to-neck for second place, according to the polls.
'I hope that scenario won’t happen': Swedish Social Democrat warns against far-right alliance
Evin Incir, a member of the European parliament from the Swedish Social Democratic party who is running for re-election, told the Guardian that she is “worried that the far-right, conservative and liberal groups will join forces” in the next European parliament.
“I hope that scenario won’t happen,” she said in a phone interview, adding that some of these groups have already come together to “shoot down” or “water down” climate and environment initiatives.
While as a social democrat her goal would be a “progressive” parliament, Incir said a “realistic” hope for the next European parliament would be a centrist coalition.
Welcome to the blog
Good morning and welcome back to the Europe blog.
This week we’re focusing on campaigns across Europe ahead of this weekend’s elections.
Yesterday, we heard from candidates in Denmark and the Baltics.
Today, we will delve into campaigns in Sweden, Finland, Poland and more.
Send tips and comments to lili.bayer@theguardian.com.
