Swapping Jacob deGrom for Justin Verlander actually improved the Mets’ World Series odds

Only days after watching starter Jacob deGrom—arguably the greatest pitcher of his generation—leave for the Texas Rangers, the New York Mets added reigning Cy Young-winner Justin Verlander on a two-year, $86 million deal.

As far as the argument for which pitcher means more for their team, it appears the Mets and Verlander have the edge.

Over at BetMGM, the Mets’ 2023 World Series odds went on a rollercoaster ride, moving from +1100 before deGrom left for Texas, to +1700 after he signed with the Rangers and then back up to +900 on Monday following the acquisition of Verlander.

Yes, that’s correct. Oddsmakers believe Verlander provides more value to the Mets than deGrom.

.@Mets odds to win World Series at @BetMGM

+1100: Open

+1700: deGrom to Rangers

+900: sign Verlander

— John Ewing 🦁 (@johnewing) December 5, 2022

Here’s how the two players stack up going back to 2018:

Jacob deGrom

Standard Pitching

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	GF	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	BK	WP	BF	ERA+	FIP	WHIP	H9	HR9	BB9	SO9	SO/W	Awards
2018	30	NYM	NL	10	9	.526	1.70	32	32	0	1	0	0	217.0	152	48	41	10	46	3	269	5	0	2	835	218	1.98	0.912	6.3	0.4	1.9	11.2	5.85	AS,CYA-1,MVP-5
2019	31	NYM	NL	11	8	.579	2.43	32	32	0	0	0	0	204.0	154	59	55	19	44	1	255	7	0	2	804	169	2.67	0.971	6.8	0.8	1.9	11.3	5.80	AS,CYA-1,MVP-10
2020	32	NYM	NL	4	2	.667	2.38	12	12	0	0	0	0	68.0	47	21	18	7	18	0	104	0	0	4	268	180	2.26	0.956	6.2	0.9	2.4	13.8	5.78	CYA-3
2021	33	NYM	NL	7	2	.778	1.08	15	15	0	1	1	0	92.0	40	14	11	6	11	0	146	1	0	0	324	373	1.24	0.554	3.9	0.6	1.1	14.3	13.27	AS,CYA-9
2022	34	NYM	NL	5	4	.556	3.08	11	11	0	0	0	0	64.1	40	22	22	9	8	0	102	0	0	0	239	126	2.13	0.746	5.6	1.3	1.1	14.3	12.75
162 Game Avg.				13	9	.590	2.52	34	34	0	1	0	0	216	166	66	61	19	49	2	261	3	0	4	849	155	2.62	0.998	6.9	0.8	2.1	10.9	5.30

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Justin Verlander

Standard Pitching

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	GF	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	BK	WP	BF	ERA+	FIP	WHIP	H9	HR9	BB9	SO9	SO/W	Awards
2018	35	HOU	AL	16	9	.640	2.52	34	34	0	1	1	0	214.0	156	63	60	28	37	0	290	8	2	5	833	164	2.78	0.902	6.6	1.2	1.6	12.2	7.84	AS,CYA-2,MVP-10
2019	36	HOU	AL	21	6	.778	2.58	34	34	0	2	1	0	223.0	137	66	64	36	42	0	300	6	0	4	847	179	3.27	0.803	5.5	1.5	1.7	12.1	7.14	AS,CYA-1,MVP-11
2020	37	HOU	AL	1	0	1.000	3.00	1	1	0	0	0	0	6.0	3	2	2	2	1	0	7	0	0	0	21	156	5.69	0.667	4.5	3.0	1.5	10.5	7.00
2022	39	HOU	AL	18	4	.818	1.75	28	28	0	0	0	0	175.0	116	43	34	12	29	0	185	6	0	3	666	220	2.49	0.829	6.0	0.6	1.5	9.5	6.38	AS,CYA-1,MVP-10
162 Game Avg.				17	9	.647	3.24	34	34	0	2	1	0	223	187	87	80	23	62	2	226	7	1	6	909	132	3.36	1.117	7.6	0.9	2.5	9.1	3.63
				W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	GF	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	BK	WP	BF	ERA+	FIP	WHIP	H9	HR9	BB9	SO9	SO/W	Awards

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Verlander missed two seasons while recovering from Tommy John surgery and all he did was come back in 2022 to win the American League Cy Young, a World Series title and pitch likely the best season of his life.

The Mets are banking on him being able to replicate that for at least two more years as he joins a rotation with former Detroit Tigers teammate Max Scherzer.

Oddsmakers certainly believe it’s possible. But the Mets haven’t won the World Series since 1986 and the National League East is reloading up and down the division once again.

Either way, it’s a positive sign for New York given how the offseason started out.