Young people who were suspended at least once while at secondary school in England are twice as likely to be out of education, employment or training by the age of 24 as their peers, according to research.
They are also less likely to achieve level three qualifications such as A-levels and to go on to higher education than classmates who were not suspended, analysis by the Education Policy Institute (EPI) thinktank shows.
It found that the negative trend continues as they get older: by 24 they are 2.5 times as likely to receive unemployment benefits and three times as likely to receive health-related benefits.
Last month, government statistics showed a sharp increase in the number of pupils being suspended from school in England, with a record 787,000 suspensions issued in 2022-23 amid a spike in behaviour problems after the pandemic.
The new report, commissioned by the youth education charity Impetus, indicates that pupils suspended 10 times or more have outcomes just as poor or worse as those of young people who are permanently excluded from school.
The EPI study tracked 576,000 students who started year 7 in 2006, following them through state secondary school and recording their use of state welfare into their mid-20s. Approximately 16% of pupils were suspended at least once while at secondary school.
The EPI acknowledged the limitations of its findings, which it said showed “strong associations” rather than a definitive causal relationship. Its research concluded, however, that pupils’ attainment at GCSE plays “a significant role” in the relationship between suspension and outcomes.
“The link between suspension and outcomes in adulthood may be indirect, as suspended pupils have lower GCSE grades on average, which may in turn limit access to further education opportunities,” it said.
The EPI findings come two days before pupils in England, Northern Ireland and Wales are due to find out their GCSE results. Last week, A-level results revealed an increase in top grades and growing regional differences.
Allen Joseph, a researcher in early years, inequalities and wellbeing at the EPI, said: “Our latest analysis shows that pupils who are suspended during secondary school are not only less likely to achieve good grades at GCSE but also tend to have poorer education, occupation and health outcomes in adult life.
“Given these poor individual-level outcomes and wider societal costs, it is imperative that schools, colleges and wider services are adequately resourced to address the circumstances and respond to the behaviour that resulted in the suspension.”
Pepe Di’Iasio, the general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, said: “No school ever wishes to suspend a pupil, and it is a measure taken only as a last resort. The new government must provide the necessary support to schools to address behavioural problems before they reach this critical point.”
Paul Whiteman, the general secretary of the National Association of Head Teachers, said: “Schools work hard to support pupils, only using suspensions and exclusions where absolutely necessary for the safety and wellbeing of all children, but they cannot do this alone.
“Vital services like children’s social care, child and adolescent mental health services and specialist behaviour support teams which enable schools to access specialist help need to be rebuilt, and the crisis in special educational needs provision must be tackled.”
