It's been four days since Michael Burham busted out of prison, sparking an urgent manhunt through the dense forests of Warren County, Pennsylvania.
Authorities have yet to apprehend the convicted arsonist and burglar, who is also set to stand trial for charges of murder and rape.
But how has Burham — who has been deemed a "survivalist after search parties found stockpiles and campsites — been able to evade the authorities for so long? And what can they do to catch him?
Two survival experts weighed in on the situation and painted a picture of exactly what might be happening in the woods of northwestern Pennsylvania.
Craig Caudill is the director and lead instructor of Nature Reliance School, a wilderness survival training academy that provides classes in self-reliance and survival across the American East Coast. He has decades of experience — the 54-year-old has been an outdoorsman his whole life.
Claudill said Burham's immediate focus would be on his needs — safety and security, including shelter from the environment, as well as water and food.
In survival, there's a theory called the rule of threes. It essentially states that individuals can go no longer than three minutes without breathable air or submerged in icy water, three hours without shelter or security of some sort, three days without water and three weeks without food.
The convict will be searching for clean sources of water and places to shelter himself from the elements while also hiding from search parties.
"Those who are trying to capture him will make sure he doesn’t have the ability to do that," Claudill told The Mirror.
The survivalist also trains law enforcement in mantracking, which he said is "an excellent skill to be able to hunt [escaped convicts] down and take them back to justice." He even trained several authorities in Pennsylvania, where Burham escaped.
Law enforcement be heading off water sources and doing everything in their ability to keep Burham moving, he said, while also restricting his ability to shelter for extended periods of time. They would be using all of their senses to locate the convict.
Because of that, he said the "fundamentals of camouflaging" would be useful to Burham as he attempts to evade capture.
EJ Snyder, a professional survivalist and instructor who served in the US Army for 25 years and taught Survival, Evasion, Resistance and Escape (SERE) classes, said there are many things Burham could do to evade authorities.
Snyder has been an avid lover of the outdoors since he was 5 years old, and now, the retired 57-year-old author advises TV series and makes short survival tip videos, which he shares to his social media accounts. He's been featured on 'Naked and Afraid' six times.
"[Burham's] going to be going where most people don’t want to walk. He’s going to try and stay in the thick stuff," Snyder told The Mirror.
The convict will hide himself and keep a low profile, and if he has the training to do so, he'll cover up his tracks as he moves. He'd also be looking to get rid of his prison garb.
He might traverse difficult terrain to make it difficult for anyone to follow him, he said — traveling through blueberry patches that have thorns aplenty or navigating swamps. He will also likely avoid lighting fires, as even tiny blazes would attract unwanted attention from the smoke or the light from the flames.
For food and water, the convict would be looking for berries and other edible plants, including cattails and acorns. He might also search for fresh water springs, which are prevalent in the region of Pennsylvania where he escaped, or drink from small puddles on the road. Rainwater is also a good drink source, Snyder said.
He could also take a chance and drink water from streams or ponds, which might not be as clean. If he opts to do so, Burham will also need a way to process water if it's not clean, so he'll be foraging for water bottles or other discarded plastic, which he could also turn into tools.
Burham might be able to find such material in dumpsters, Snyder said, and diving into them would have a twofold benefit for the prisoner — it would allow him to search for materials while also masking his scent. Dumpsters are smelly, and some of the scents inside would rub off on Burham.
That would be especially useful if search crews decide to utilise dogs.
Other ways Burham could cover his scent would be by covering himself in animal scat, especially bear or hog poop. Dogs are often weary of those animals.
He could also traverse swamps or cover himself in mud, all the while ensuring he travels downwind so the breeze doesn't carry his scent toward search parties.
After 72 hours in the wilderness, the prison scent, which dogs might be fixating on as they track him, would wear off as he secretes the food and water he consumed in the facility through his sweat or waste.
His body will also start to go through ketosis from a lack of regular food, Snyder said, and that, when paired with the "ripe" smell from sweating in the summer heat, will cause Burham's body to "start putting out an odor that's not going to be easily detectable."
"After a week, you’re going to really just start smelling like the wild. 10 days into it, you’re going to start smelling like what’s around you, what you’re eating off the ground that’s natural," Snyder said. "You really basically become an animal. Even the bugs stop bothering you after a while because of that natural blending."
But Burham will also likely be desperate, Snyder said, and that will not only make him "very dangerous" but also give law enforcement the opportunity to catch him slipping up.
He might try to approach other hikers and campers or try to post up in cabins or other facilities search parties could be checking.
Snyder said he is "not to be trusted" and cautioned anyone venturing out in the area around which he escaped to be weary of his presence and the things he may do.
Authorities will be working to trip Burham up, Claudill said, and eventually, they could succeed.
But Burham has proven himself to be quite the trickster, and law enforcement is in for a challenge.
