As the UN Security Council meets, the geopolitical reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is crystallising. Unsurprisingly the US, EU, UK and their allies have rallied behind Ukraine, and the African Union has called for a ceasefire. But a few surprising allegiances have forged on both sides.
Although Russia wasn’t expected to have widespread support, there’s nary an ally in sight as its “48-hour invasion” becomes a drawn-out war. Rather, a series of major players is attempting to both appease Russia and protect their own interests in stability.
Here’s where the world stands:
China
It was less than a month ago that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in Beijing and talked up their close relationship. But their united front seemingly didn’t involve backing an invasion. China is avoiding getting involved; it abstained from a UN Security council vote to condemn the invasion but also refused to label it as such.
China’s prosperity may be threatened by major economic instability, and hence it has called for “necessary restraint in order to prevent the situation in Ukraine from deteriorating or even getting out of control”.
Israel
Israel is in a similar position. It has strong ties with both the US and Russia. Its foreign ministry initially released a statement that didn’t mention Russia, and referred to the invasion as “steps taken in eastern Ukraine”. It then stepped up the rhetoric, explicitly mentioning “the Russian attack” but retreated to the more neutral language in subsequent statements.
Israel is attempting to play both sides: although it did vote with the US on the UN resolution, it has resisted implementing sanctions.
UAE and India
Also toeing the line are the UAE and India; with China they both abstained from the vote in the Security Council. Although the vote ultimately failed anyway due to Russia’s veto powers, both countries risk upsetting major allies by staying neutral. The UAE is considered a key ally in the Middle East for the US, and India has been enjoying renewed relationships with Australia.
Indonesia
Indonesia also made a middling statement that said a lot about its perspective. It doesn’t mention Russia, and calls on “all parties to cease hostilities”. The Australian Strategic Policy Institute pointed out the significance of the distinction between this statement and Indonesia’s response to AUKUS, which accused Australia of “accelerating” an arms race.
Vietnam
Vietnam has a longstanding connection with Russia dating back to a post-Vietnam War diplomatic alliance, but it is keeping quiet. Its state newspaper was supportive during the annexation of Crimea in 2014, but this time has been reporting both sides of the conflict.
Non-aligned states: Sweden, Finland, Switzerland
The other surprising development is the non-aligned states that have taken a stance for the first time. Sweden and Finland usually avoid taking sides but have joined the efforts to provide weapons to Ukraine. The US is angling for Finland and Sweden to join NATO.
This will be the first time Sweden has sent weapons to another country since 1939 when the Soviet Union invaded neighbouring Finland. It marks a major shift geopolitically; while Finland was pulled into World War II owing to that invasion, Sweden stayed formally neutral for the entire conflict.
The famously neutral Switzerland has also made a historic move to align itself with Ukraine. While it was already formally committed to UN sanctions, it has elected to also join the EU sanctions, signalling a significant shift in its diplomatic stance to international conflict.
Switzerland says it maintains its commitment to neutrality and chose to act only in defence of international law, but the move remains. It has left some channels open, including commodity trading, which is significant given almost 80% of Russia’s commodity trading runs through Swiss financial service centres.
Either way, the major financial institutions based in Switzerland make adopting the significant EU sanctions a major step in the escalating crippling of Russia’s economy.
