In France's biggest political upheaval in decades, a newly formed left-wing alliance is set to take up a majority of seats in parliament, just ahead of Macron's centrist coalition, with far-right National Rally in third place. While final results are still to be announced, it is clear no one grouping has an absolute majority. So a third round – of jockeying for further alliances – now begins.
The snap election – called by President Emmanuel Macron following historic wins by the far-right National Rally in June's European polls – looks like leaving parliament divided into three big groups: the left, centrists, and the far right.
They each have radically different platforms and no tradition of working together.
France's political culture is not one of compromise either, so what happens now is far from certain.
Macron has promised to remain as president, but made no public announcement on Sunday, awaiting final results on Monday.
Prime Minister Gabriel Attal announced he would hand in his resignation on Monday. But he also said he could remain in place temporarily, if required, while a new government was formed and to guide France through the upcoming Paris Olympics.
What is clear is that there is major uncertainty over how a government can be formed in what is the EU's second biggest economy and its leading military power.
A power vaccuum
The left, which wants to cap prices of essential goods like fuel and food, raise the minimum wage to a net 1,600 euros per month, hike wages for public sector workers and impose a wealth tax, immediately said it wanted to govern.
"The will of the people must be strictly respected ... the president must invite the New Popular Front to govern," said Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the hard-left France Unbowed (LFI).
But predictions following the polls put the New Popular Front (NFP) alliance on between 177 and 192 seats, far short of the 289 seats needed to secure an absolute majority in the National Assembly.
"There's really going to be a vacuum when it comes to France's legislative ability," Simon Harvey, head of FX analysis at Monex Europe, told Reuters.
A key question is whether the leftist alliance, which gathers LFI, Greens, Socialists and Communists will remain united and agree on what course to take.
The constitution does not oblige Macron to ask the group to form a government, though that would be the usual step as it is the largest group in parliament.
Melenchon ruled out a broad coalition of parties of different stripes, insisting Macron had a duty to call on the leftist alliance to rule.
'Tide is rising'
Macron's centrist group Ensemble (Together) looks set to come second with between 152 and 158 seats, just ahead of the RN (138 to 145 seats), according to the pollsters' projections based on early results.
That was a far cry from weeks of opinion polls consistently projecting the RN would win comfortably, before the left and centrist alliances engaged in a tactical voting pact – known as the "republican front".
Some 224 centrist and NFP candidates pulled out from three-way races to build a unified anti-RN vote.
RN leader Jordan Bardella said the other parties had teamed up to stop the far right in a "disgraceful alliance" that he said would paralyse France.
Marine Le Pen, who intends to run for president in 2027, said that Sunday's ballot, which will almost double the current number of RN MPs, had sown the seeds for the future.
"The tide is rising. It did not rise high enough this time, but it contines to rise and our victory has simply been deferred," the leader of the anti-immigration party said
Act like "grown-ups"
In Macron's entourage, there was no indication of his next move.
"The question we're going to have to ask ourselves tonight and in the coming days is: which coalition is capable of reaching the 289 seats to govern?", a person close to him told Reuters.
Some in his alliance, including former prime minister Edouard Philippe, envisaged a broad cross-party alliance but said it could not include the hard-left France Unbowed.
On the more moderate left, Raphael Glucksmann of Place Publique and the Socialist Party, urged his alliance partners to act like "grown-ups".
"We're ahead, but we're in a divided parliament," he said. "We're going to have to talk, to discuss, to engage in dialogue."
(with newswires)
