ORLANDO, Fla. — In a surprise move, Gov. Ron DeSantis has inserted himself into congressional redistricting by releasing his own map that experts said Tuesday would dilute minority voting power and likely give Republicans an 18-10 advantage in Florida seats.
DeSantis’ map, released Sunday in the middle of Dr. Martin Luther King Day weekend, would eliminate a North Florida seat long designed to have African American representation and could create a majority white Democratic primary in the Orange County district represented by outgoing U.S. Rep. Val Demings, who is Black.
It would also dilute Hispanic voting power in South Florida by splitting up Hispanic voters into several different districts.
The map was dropped just days before the GOP-controlled state Senate plans to vote on its version, which would keep much of the status quo while still giving Republicans a likely 16-12 advantage over Democrats.
It was unclear if the new proposed map would have any effect on the scheduled vote. No governor in recent history has offered a version of a map during the once-every-decade process.
A spokesperson for the governor’s office did not return requests for comment.
Experts said the DeSantis map violates the Civil Rights Act and would likely fail to get through even the conservative state Supreme Court. But it could just be meant to send a political message to both the Legislature and GOP voters nationwide.
“I think it’s performative,” said Dan Smith, chair of political science at the University of Florida. “This is an effort to, if not to consolidate power, to once again show the Legislature who has power and who controls the process.”
Still, Smith said, “He is the one who is ultimately going to be either signing (any new map) into law or vetoing it.”
The map would be a direct challenge to the sections of the Civil Rights Act that require states to do everything they can to ensure minority representation, experts said.
While the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that legislatures could use partisan motivation to draw maps, ethnic representation is still protected under the act. The Fair Districts amendments in the Florida Constitution are also meant to discourage partisan gerrymandering.
Matt Isbell, an elections expert who runs the MCIMaps website, said he saw “zero scenario” where the map would hold up in court.
“This is much more about (DeSantis) trying to look like he’s really pushing back and trying to look good before like the conservative activist base, who have expressed more and more frustration with redistricting in Florida,” Isbell said.
DeSantis is running for reelection this year and is also believed to be eyeing a run for president in 2024.
Christian Ziegler, vice-chair of the Florida GOP, wrote in a Tweet on Sunday, “I had a TON of people come up to me at the Trump Rally in ARIZONA asking about Florida Congressional Maps & if DeSantis was going to get involved. 24 hours later ... Looks like we have an answer!”
The DeSantis map also echoes an outlier state House map that would basically eliminate the seat held by outgoing U.S. Rep. Stephanie Murphy by adding much of GOP-leaning Volusia County. That would make it more favorable for Republicans, including state Rep. Anthony Sabatini, a Howey-in-the-Hills Republican, who praised the map on Twitter.
The map would also affect the race to succeed Demings in a majority-minority district in Orange County by diluting its Black voting power. The race has drawn several African American candidates to succeed Demings, including former Orange-Osceola State Attorney Aramis Ayala and state Sen. Randolph Bracy of Orlando.
“Theoretically, an African American could win that if they got through the primary, but the primary would (become) plurality white,” Isbell said.
In South Florida, Isbell said, the map dilutes Hispanic voting power by splitting Hispanics among multiple districts, a move that potentially could turn even a Hispanic seat held by Cuban American Republican U.S. Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart into a majority white one.
“Diaz-Balart could literally lose to a white Republican from Naples in that primary,” Isbell said.
A large chunk of Hispanic voters would also be placed in Democratic U.S. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s district in Broward County, making it likely more Democratic but sapping Hispanic voting strength from other seats to the south.
“Not only is bad for African Americans, it’s theoretically bad for Hispanics,” Isbell said. “You could go from having three Hispanic congresspeople in South Florida to two.”
The elimination of Democratic U.S. Rep. Al Lawson’s seat in North Florida, also designed to create Black representation under the Civil Rights Act, is “much more egregious.”
“You don’t have any debate over the 5th District in the Legislature,” Isbell said. “So the idea that DeSantis can come in and say, ‘Nope, that’s not protected at all. Let’s just get rid of it’? ... It reverses a historically (Black) district that has existed again since the 1990s.”
The problem, said Michael McDonald, a professor of political science at the University of Florida, is that determining the exact minority representation in this or any new map is difficult because the data haven’t been released.
“We don’t know what minority percentage is necessary in order to elect an African American candidate in any of those districts because there’s been no report that has been released by the Legislature,” McDonald said.
Despite the legally perilous path for DeSantis’ proposed maps, Smith said they might still have an effect on GOP legislators.
“Now he has lawmakers having to take a position on his map, fanciful or not, constitutional or not,” Smith said. “It’s going to push lawmakers to say, ‘No, governor, we’re not going to go that direction.’ And no one really wants to be put in that position if you’re a Republican lawmaker.”
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