It's likely to take many more months before the Welsh NHS can carry out the same number of planned operations as before the pandemic, a top surgeon has warned. Professor Jon Barry, director in Wales at the Royal College of Surgeons of England, said workforce issues and a lack of beds are "continually impacting" the ability to bring down waiting lists.
According to latest Welsh Government statistics, there were 750,283 patient "pathways" waiting to start planned treatment in August. When this is broken down, that equates to around 589,000 individuals - 19% of the population - who are on a hospital waiting list.
The number of people waiting more than two years in Wales is now 59,350 - nearly three times the figure a year ago - despite such waits having been eliminated in England and Scotland. In England around one in 20 patients on the list have been waiting more than a year, but in Wales it is nearly one in four.
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Health Minister Eluned Morgan has called on health boards to prioritise the longest waiters and "speed up the process" of treating people waiting over two years for hospital treatment. However Prof Barry admitted these waits are very unlikely to come down to any meaningful extent for many months to come.
"Once again, we see record numbers on planned waiting lists, with the latest figures from August. We are now over three quarters of a million patient pathways waiting," he said. "The months ahead will be very tough for NHS staff, the wider health service and patients who are waiting for treatment if decisive action is not taken.
"Despite the best efforts of a hard-pressed and dedicated workforce, the NHS in Wales still has not managed to return to pre-pandemic activity levels. These figures show that is now very unlikely to happen for many months to come.
"Workforce issues continue to hamper efforts in areas such as surgery where operations cannot go ahead if there are no available staff. A theatre operates with a team, not just a surgeon, and missing one team member can result in an operation being cancelled. Issues around bed provision remain for planned surgery with the demand from emergency care continually impacting planned operations."
Prof Barry said a "new approach" is needed in Wales called for regional surgical hubs, or elective centres, to be created across health boards in Wales. He believes these hubs will help to speed up patient access to planned surgery and build in the extra capacity needed to address increasing waiting lists. "We must act now to avert a crisis in the NHS," he added.
In August the longest waits were for trauma and orthopaedic treatment (102,209 pathways), general surgery (93,476), ear nose and throat (62,927) and urology (44,364). Ear nose and throat has seen a small drop on the July figures, but the other areas continue to increase.
A patient "pathway" covers the time a patient waits from their referral to hospital for treatment. The data includes time spent waiting for any hospital appointments, tests, surgery, scans or other procedure.
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