THE Supreme Court’s ruling risks reigniting divides in the SNP over transgender rights, but its impact on the outcome of Holyrood 2026 remains to be seen.
Earlier this week, the UK’s highest court made a radical, unexpected ruling, upending how equality law in the country has worked for almost two decades.
For Women Scotland (FWS), a gender-critical campaign group financially backed by JK Rowling and a crowdfunder, won their challenge against the Scottish Government over the legal definition of a woman.
The Supreme Court justices ruled that the terms “woman” and “sex” in the Equality Act 2010 “refer to a biological woman and biological sex”. Public bodies are currently scrambling to understand the implications, which means that transgender women with a gender recognition certificate (GRC) can be excluded from single-sex spaces if “proportionate”.
It was the culmination of a row over transgender rights that was at its peak during the Gender Recognition Reforms legislation as it passed through Holyrood in 2022, and its subsequent blocking by then-Tory Scottish secretary Alister Jack.
While MSPs debated into the night to get the legislation passed in Scotland, which would allow transgender men and women to self-identify as their acquired gender, it was accompanied by a heated discussion around single-sex spaces inside and out of the chamber.
The Supreme Court ruling is likely not the last we will hear of the issue, but it is one where its impact will be felt for a long time to come.
First Minister John Swinney (below) quickly accepted the court’s decision in the wake of its ruling.
“The ruling gives clarity between two relevant pieces of legislation passed at Westminster,” he said.
Swinney’s diplomatic response did not gather as much heat as that of Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar, who tried to rewrite his position on gender reform but was swiftly called out for it, but it has had its impact elsewhere.
An SNP source told the Sunday National they felt that the FM was “playing both sides” and that they had hoped for a stronger response.
“Humza [Yousaf] would have come out with fighting words, Nicola [Sturgeon] would have given words of sympathy and solidarity,” they said.
“John Swinney is toeing the line straight down the middle.”
Polling expert professor John Curtice explained that it is a “difficult issue” for the SNP because the party are “internally divided” over it. The divisions were made clear during the party’s leadership race to replace Nicola Sturgeon, with Humza Yousaf backing the party’s gender reforms stance, while opponents Kate Forbes, now Deputy First Minister, and Ash Regan, now an Alba MSP, were against them.
Swinney, Curtice argued, won’t “want to reignite the fires within his party” ahead of the Holyrood 2026 election.
But, he added most Scottish political parties, bar the Greens, are “internally divided on the subject”.
“It's probably in everybody's interest between now and next May to stay schtum,” Curtice said. “What is true is that public opinion over the last three or four years has shifted against making it easier for gender recognition to be achieved.
It is clear that divisions over transgender rights are still apparent within the SNP, and publicly.
Following the judgement, former SNP equalities minister Emma Roddick posted on Twitter/X: “I reiterate my calls for an end to conversion practices, recognition for non-binary people and protection of rights for trans people.”
Meanwhile, former SNP MP Joanna Cherry said she was “hugely vindicated” by the ruling.
“Amongst all the sound & fury about @ForWomenScot’s Supreme Court victory independence supporters should reflect on the time, energy, money & capital expended by @theSNP leadership on this failed project compared to that spent on the cause of independence," she later added on Twitter/X.
Amber Roberts, an SNP member and transgender woman, told the Sunday National that she believed the implications of the party’s stance on trans rights following the judgement could have a mixed impact.
“For some voters, we need to consider their views on other issues than just trans issues.
“For example, there'll be trans people out there that will turn around and go ‘I really don't want to vote for the SNP, but they are the best hope for independence’,” she said.
“There'll be other voters out there going, I cannot in good faith currently vote for the SNP, for whatever their reasons are.
“What I note that I didn't see was any sort of solidarity for trans people in Scotland from the First Minister. So that's something I personally would like to see more of from the First Minister, for those people that feel they can't vote for the SNP, they will probably vote for the Greens.”
MSP Maggie Chapman told the Sunday National that the Supreme Court judgment is being used “as a launchpad for a new and aggressive wave of attacks on trans people”.
“It’s essential that the Scottish Government resists this opportunistic onslaught and ensures that trans rights and inclusivity are protected,” she said.
“This means they have to offer more than just sympathetic words. They must enshrine that protection in the policies, procedures and guidance they establish.”
Curtice agrees that the Greens will appeal to certain voters who would describe themselves as “progressive” and “liberal” and are aligned with the party’s stance on trans rights and support for self-identification.
“It's all very heavily related to age, young middle-class professionals tend to think that the gender recognition legislation should be easier and that’s the Greens' core market,” Curtice added.
While scores of news reports and reels of comments on social media both celebrated and mourned the outcome of the ruling on Wednesday, Curtice told the Sunday National that he didn’t expect it to play a huge part in the Holyrood election campaign.
“I think my guess is that politically [as an issue], it will die between now and next May,” he said.
“The big issues facing Scotland are one, the constitutional question which still definitely divides the public and two, the state of the health service, and three the state of the economy.
“Compared with transgender [rights], it's an issue that spreads the emotions on either side, but it's not, it's not something that most people are affected by on a day-to-day basis.”
