March arabica coffee (KCH25) Friday closed up +16.75 (+5.34%), and January ICE robusta coffee (RMF25) closed up +258 (+5.27%).
Coffee prices on Friday rallied sharply for a second day. Concerns that future coffee supplies will remain tight are boosting prices. The Vietnam General Statistics Office reported that Vietnam Nov coffee exports plunged -49.1 % y/y to 60,000 MT, and Jan-Nov coffee exports are down -14.3% y/y at 1.2 MMT. Recent rains in Vietnam flooded coffee fields and delayed the robust coffee harvest. Vietnam, the world’s biggest robusta producer, is at the start of its coffee harvest.
Last Friday, March arabica posted a contract high, and nearest-futures (Z24) arabica posted a 47-year high. Meanwhile, January robusta coffee posted a 2-1/2 month high. Coffee prices soared as adverse weather in Brazil and Vietnam, the world's two biggest coffee growers, threatens global coffee production. According to Sucden Financial, the price surge has also prompted some of Brazil's coffee exporters to unwind their hedges and buy coffee futures to cover short positions, pushing coffee prices even higher.
The impact of dry El Nino weather earlier this year may lead to longer-term coffee crop damage in South and Central America. Rainfall in Brazil has consistently been below average since April, damaging coffee trees during the all-important flowering stage and reducing the prospects for Brazil's 2025/26 arabica coffee crop. Brazil has been facing the driest weather since 1981, according to the natural disaster monitoring center Cemaden. Also, Colombia, the world's second-largest arabica producer, is slowly recovering from the El Nino-spurred drought earlier this year.
Below-average rainfall in Brazil may curb the country's coffee output and is bullish for prices. Somar Meteorologia reported Monday that rainfall in Brazil's biggest arabica coffee growing area of Minas Gerais received 17.8 mm of rain last week, or only 31% of the historical average. Minas Gerais is Brazil's largest arabica coffee-producing area.
Robusta coffee prices are underpinned by reduced robusta production. Due to drought, Vietnam's coffee production in the 2023/24 crop year dropped by -20% to 1.472 MMT, the smallest crop in four years. The USDA FAS on May 31 projected that Vietnam's robusta coffee production in the new marketing year of 2024/25 will dip slightly to 27.9 million bags from 28 million bags in the 2023/24 season.
On Tuesday, arabica coffee fell to a 2-week low, and robusta dropped to a 3-week low after the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association raised its 2024/25 Vietnam coffee production estimate to 28 million bags from an October estimate of 27 million bags.
Weakness in the Brazilian real (^USDBRL) is also bearish for coffee, with the real just above last Friday's record low against the dollar. The weaker real encourages export selling from Brazil's coffee producers.
Coffee prices also have carryover support from November 22 when the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) projected Brazil's 2024/25 coffee production at 66.4 MMT, below the USDA's previous forecast of 69.9 MMT. The USDA's FAS also projects Brazil's coffee inventories at 1.2 million bags at the end of the 2024/25 season in June, down -26% y/y.
In a supportive factor for coffee prices, Conab, Brazil's crop forecasting agency, cut its 2024 Brazil coffee production forecast on September 19 to 54.8 million bags from May's forecast of 58.8 million bags.
Signs of larger global coffee supplies are bearish for prices. On Thursday, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported that Oct global coffee exports for the beginning of the 2024/25 season rose +15.1% y/y to 11.13 mln bags. 2023/24 global coffee exports (Oct-Sep) rose +11.7% y/y to 137.27 mln bags.
Tightness in coffee inventories is supporting coffee prices. ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories recovered from the 24-year low of 224,066 bags posted in November 2023 to post a 2-1/3 year high of 905,831 bags Friday. Meanwhile, ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories fell to a 7-1/2 month low of 3,674 lots Friday after climbing to a 1-3/4 year high of 6,521 in July. ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories are moderately above the record low of 1,958 lots posted in February 2024.
Brazilian coffee export news has been bearish. On November 18, Cecafe reported that Brazil's Oct green coffee exports rose +11% y/y to 4.57 million bags. Also, Cecafe reported on July 11 that Brazil's 2023/24 coffee exports rose +33% y/y to a record 47.3 million bags.
In a bearish factor, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) recently projected that 2023/24 global coffee production would climb +5.8% y/y to a record 178 million bags due to an exceptional off-biennial crop year. ICO also said global 2023/24 coffee consumption would climb +2.2% y/y to a record 177 million bags, resulting in a 1 million bag coffee surplus.
The USDA's bi-annual report on June 20 was bearish for coffee prices. The USDA's Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projected that world coffee production in 2024/25 will increase +4.2% y/y to 176.235 million bags, with a +4.4% increase in arabica production to 99.855 million bags and a +3.9% increase in robusta production to 76.38 million bags. The USDA's FAS forecasts that 2024/25 ending stocks will climb by +7.7% to 25.78 million bags from 23.93 million bags in 2023/24.
