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Daily Record
Daily Record
Sport
Steven Mair

Supercomputer recalculates Rangers Europa League chances after Dortmund heroics defied the data

The last 16 is yet to conclude and Giovanni van Bronckhorst poured cold water over the idea of Red Star being down and out in the Europa League.

But as fans walked out of Ibrox with chants of Seville ringing around the Govan district it had the aura of something special in the making.

Ibrox-minded pundits are almost waiting for the starter's pistol to see if they can begin even contemplating the idea Rangers could go all the way.

But that's what a steady stream of clear progress on the continent, first under Steven Gerrard and now the collected Dutchman, has done to the psyche of a support that for years yearned for such heights.

Just how realistic is a repeat of Manchester '08 - or a campaign that could even go one better?

There are still big names left in the competition.

Leverkusen silenced Ibrox in 2020. Barcelona need no introduction.

Sevilla are perhaps the only club whose supporters love this competition more than Rangers at the moment, with a record six wins, and doing it in their home city is the biggest carrot going.

The boffins on statistical analysis website FiveThirtyEight like to put their knowledge to good use when it comes to elite football competitions.

Their complex algorithm has worked out the probabilities for every remaining team to progress to the quarter-finals, semis and the showpiece in May, as well as the likelihood of lifting the hulking trophy.

So what do they make of Rangers' chances? Well, it's a mixed bag.

First and foremost they have a 97 per cent chance of making the last eight, the highest of any team bar RB Leipzig who are already through as their opponents were due to be the now-sanctioned Spartak Moscow.

That's a bit of a given after generating a 3-0 aggregate lead to take to Red Star's Marakana.

At that stage, they're giving around a one in three chance, 30 per cent to be exact, of making the semis.

Of course, it will all depend on the other teams that go through and the luck of the draw, but there's a tendency for top five league bias in their weighting.

That might have been evident when Gers were given only a 15 per cent chance at winning in Dortmund last month, and then 22 per cent at home having already shocked the German giants.

They're also giving Gers a 9 per cent chance of making the final, and 3 per cent to win it.

It's skewed by Barcelona, who drew 0-0 with Galatasaray and face a fearsome return leg in Istanbul, and Leipzig by virtue of them being given a bye. Those two teams have both been given a 40 per cent chance of making the final.

The data suggests Rangers are still big underdogs just to progress to the final four but they've defied the stats already this season.

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