It has been another dramatic week in the race for the top four in the Premier League, with Manchester United being handed a huge let-off on Wednesday night.
The Reds of course suffered a slip-up in their quest to qualify for next season’s Champions League, with Ralf Rangnick’s side being held to a 1-1 draw at bottom-of-the-table Burnley.
The result, coupled with West Ham’s win over Watford, saw United drop out of the top four, and left the door wide open for Arsenal and Tottenham behind them.
The latter, though, couldn’t take that opportunity on Wednesday night, with Spurs missing the chance to go level on points with United, throwing away a 2-1 lead against Southampton as they fell to a 3-2 defeat.
The result leaves Antonio Conte’s side three points behind United, although they do still have two games in hand, while Arsenal will be looking to take advantage against Wolves later this evening.
The result in North London though demonstrated the topsy-turvy nature of the race for fourth, which looks set to go right down to the wire this season.
But, even after their let-off last night, United are still predicted to miss out on Champions League qualification for next season.
According to the FiveThirtyEight supercomputer, United have just a 19 per cent to finish in the top four, with Arsenal and Tottenham still seen as the favourites.
The Gunners lead the way with a 40 per cent chance of qualifying for next season’s Champions League, while Spurs have been given a 26 per cent probability of finishing fourth.
West Ham, meanwhile, have been given a 10 per cent chance of overhauling their rivals, while Wolves are ranked as outsiders at four per cent.
Unsurprisingly, Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea are all-but guaranteed their slots in the top three, with City the overwhelming favourites for the title, while Liverpool are ranked as their only rivals with a 16 per cent chance of claiming the Premier League crown.
How does the supercomputer work?
FiveThirtyEight uses SPI ratings, which have an attacking and defensive component in order to determine which team is going to win a specific game. This is then all built up to see how many points each side will accumulate for when the season ends.
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