Sports betting has never been bigger than it is right now and no event in the world draws more wagers than the Super Bowl each year. A record $23.1 billion – yes, billion with a ‘B’ – is expected to be wagered on Super Bowl LVIII this Sunday, which is a mind-boggling number.
If you’re one of the millions of people planning to put a bet on the big game between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs, we’ve got you covered with our nine favorite bets. Eight of them are props, with one being a moneyline and over parlay, including two Super Bowl MVP picks.
From Christian McCaffrey scoring the first touchdown to Travis Kelce finding the end zone twice, here are our nine best bets for Super Bowl LVIII.
All odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Christian McCaffrey first touchdown scorer (+450)
There’s almost no value in picking McCaffrey to just score a touchdown. That’s going off at -225 given how prolific the NFL’s touchdown leader was this season and has been in the postseason. Getting in on the McCaffrey TD action feels like a must though, so we’ll lean into the first TD scorer thing here. There’s an obvious path to him scoring a rushing TD, but don’t sleep on the Brock Purdy checkdown for an unexpected score. McCaffrey nearly had a score just like this in the NFC championship game vs. the Lions where he broke a couple tackles after a short throw and was one broken tackle away from a long touchdown. The 49ers are going to lean on their stars on offense, and McCaffrey is their biggest one. – Kyle Madson, Niners Wire
Running back / fullback to win MVP (+350)
Go ahead and refer to the McCaffrey first TD wager first. Now consider that the Chiefs allowed 4.5 yards per carry this season and ranked 27th in rush defense DVOA. That opens a pretty wide door for McCaffrey to put together a monster game where he churns out 150-plus scrimmage yards and a couple of touchdowns. If he does that in a 49ers win, voters would surely lean toward him. Then we have to take into account how porous San Francisco’s run defense has been this postseason. The 49ers overall missed 150 tackles this year according to Pro Football Focus, and Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco is extremely hard to get on the ground. Given how much the Chiefs passing offense has struggled this season, a 100-plus yard, multi-touchdown game for Pacheco is also too far onto the table to not take the juice here. – Kyle Madson, Niners Wire
Deebo Samuel 100+ rushing & receiving yards (+230)
One of the most reliable things about the 49ers offense is that when it’s struggling, it turns to Samuel. In big spots, he’s their go-to player, and he consistently shows up in big games. He churned out 100-plus scrimmage yards four times this year, including 138 at Philadelphia in what was the club’s biggest game of the season. There should be plenty of volume for Samuel, and one or two big plays will put him well over the 100-yard mark. Perhaps he falls just short like he did in the NFC championship (96), at Seattle on Thanksgiving (94) and vs. Dallas in Week 5 (84), but the 49ers will lean on Samuel to make plays for them and at +230 it’s something we’re willing to bet on too. – Kyle Madson, Niners Wire
Travis Kelce to win Super Bowl MVP (+1300)
Kelce is the Chiefs’ most lethal receiving option and should be expected to see a high volume of targets against the 49ers in this game. His ability to find open space is second to none, and his star seems to shine the brightest in the most crucial moments. While it would seem logical for Patrick Mahomes to win MVP given that he would be throwing Kelce the ball, a wager on the All-Pro tight end would yield nearly 10 times as much profit for bettors willing to put their money on a non-quarterback. – John Dillon, Chiefs Wire
Chiefs to win and OVER 47.5 total points (+290)
Both teams are going to be juiced up for this game, and rightfully so. Patrick Mahomes has had no problem scoring points in the Super Bowl behind competent offensive lines, and running back Isiah Pacheco could give San Francisco fits in the running game. Kansas City may be an underdog on the money line, but if this game turns into a shootout, the Chiefs’ quarterback advantage will make this bet a great call. – John Dillon, Chiefs Wire
Chiefs to attempt a field goal on first offensive possession (+375)
The primary difference between the Chiefs and 49ers is that the majority of Kansas City’s roster has “been here” before. The Chiefs are no strangers to the Super Bowl, having appeared in four of the last five championship contests, but even with the reigning MVP under center, jitters are to be expected. Kansas City’s kicker, Harrison Butker, has proven to be extremely accurate on field goals and has a range that may extend past the 55-yard mark. If the Chiefs stall on their first possession in San Francisco territory, this wager would nearly quadruple a bettor’s money. – John Dillon, Chiefs Wire
George Kittle’s longest reception OVER 21.5 yards (-110)
This is one of my favorite bets of the entire Super Bowl, even though it seems like a big ask given the yardage. Kittle may not see a high volume of targets, but he’s a good bet to break off one long reception. Think about this: In the 18 games he’s played this season, he’s had a reception of at least 24 yards 12 times. In four of the games where he didn’t have a catch of at least 22 yards, the 49ers won comfortably. With this expected to be a close game, and given the Chiefs’ strength at their boundary cornerback spots, I like Kittle to have another long reception. He’s gone over this number in seven of his last eight games. – Cameron DaSilva, NFL Wires
Travis Kelce to score 2 or more TDs (+550)
In his last 15 playoff games, Kelce has scored multiple touchdowns four times. That’s a hit rate of 26.7%. At +550, that comes with implied odds of only 15.4%, already making this a great value. It feels like Kelce is even more likely to score multiple times in this game compared to previous years when the Chiefs had more reliable weapons than they do now. And in the playoffs, Mahomes tends to look his way more; he’s been targeted 27 times in the last three games with three total touchdowns. It’s a long shot, and it may even be better to bet him to win MVP instead (because if he scores twice, he might just win MVP anyway), but the odds are perfectly reasonable. – Cameron DaSilva, NFL Wires
First TD pass: Patrick Mahomes (+100)
The 49ers have Christian McCaffrey. Last I checked, the Chiefs do not. McCaffrey is the likeliest player to score the first touchdown of the game, which makes it less likely for Brock Purdy (-120) to throw the first touchdown pass. Catch my drift? Getting Mahomes at even money feels like a bargain, knowing the 49ers could just hand it off to McCaffrey along the goal line, or give it to Deebo Samuel for a rushing touchdown. The Chiefs do have Isiah Pacheco, who’s been a touchdown threat lately, but I like Mahomes’ odds of throwing a touchdown pass before Purdy. – Cameron DaSilva, NFL Wires
