MMQB SUPER BOWL GAME PICK | NFL BETTING PICKS
We’re just a couple of days away from the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs colliding in New Orleans for Super Bowl LIX at 6:30 p.m. ET Sunday at Caesars Superdome.
Jalen Hurts and the Eagles will be looking for revenge after losing the Super Bowl to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs two years ago in Arizona. In that iteration of the big game, Hurts had the game-tying two-yard rushing touchdown late in the fourth quarter but left too much time on the clock for Mahomes to rally and set up Harrison Butker for the game-winning field goal in the final seconds.
But Hurts enters New Orleans with what might be a better roster, as the Eagles didn’t have Saquon Barkley the last time these two teams met on the biggest stage. Barkley is only the second player to rush for at least 2,000 rushing yards in the regular season and advance to the Super Bowl—joining Denver Broncos great Terrell Davis, who completed his memorable 1998 season by winning Super Bowl XXXIII.
The Chiefs will trot out a familiar group as they attempt to become the first team in NFL history to win three consecutive Super Bowls. With a win, Mahomes would join Joe Montana, Terry Bradshaw and Tom Brady as the only quarterbacks with four Super Bowl rings.
But this matchup presents more than just star power on the offensive side. Both defenses are led by elite defensive tackles headlined by Kansas City’s Chris Jones and Philadelphia’s Jalen Carter. Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo and Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio are two of the best coaches when it comes to frustrating offenses.
Here’s everything you need to know about Sunday’s game, including Gilberto Manzano’s key matchup, Matt Verderame’s key stat, Iain MacMillan’s best bet and Conor Orr’s prediction.
SUNDAY
Kansas City Chiefs (17–2) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (17–3)
When/TV: 6:30 p.m. ET, FOX
Spread: Chiefs -1.5 (over/under: 48.5)
Matchup to watch: Eagles RB Saquon Barkley vs. Chiefs DT Chris Jones. Kansas City caught a break when the Buffalo Bills neglected running back James Cook on a critical drive with 3:33 left in the AFC championship game. After allowing Cook to average 6.5 yards per carry, the Chiefs now have to worry about Barkley, who has averaged 147.3 rushing yards in the past three playoff games. Barkley has the speed and power to turn five-yard runs into explosive plays, but gaining extra yards will be tough against one of the most fundamentally sound defenses in the league. Jones provided plenty of push against the Bills, making life difficult for Cook and Josh Allen in short-yardage situations. Perhaps Philadelphia surprises Kansas City and utilizes Barkley more in the passing game. —Manzano
Key stat: The Eagles have an excellent offensive line, but Hurts is still very susceptible to being sacked. This season, no team threw the ball fewer times than Philadelphia with 448 attempts. Still, Philadelphia allowed 45 sacks, largely because Hurts averaged an NFL-high 2.7 seconds per drop-back. Lastly, the Eagles gave up a sack on 9.1% of pass plays, a rate only eclipsed by the Chicago Bears. It could be a big day for Spagnuolo’s front four. —Verderame
Best bet: Chiefs -1.5. Kansas City has proven time and time again, year after year, that even if their opponent is the better team from an “analytics” perspective, it doesn’t matter. Mahomes has champion DNA, Andy Reid is an offensive mastermind and Spagnuolo may be the best defensive coordinator of all time. Kansas City continuously plays its best football in the playoffs and that starts with Mahomes, who has now recorded seven playoff starts where he’s averaged an EPA of 0.5 or better, which is more than double the amount of any other quarterback in NFL history. I have bet against the Chiefs in the playoffs way more than I should have in the past few years. Thankfully, I have finally seen the light. A switch gets flipped for this team when it’s in the postseason and I see no reason why that won’t continue in New Orleans. —MacMillan
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Super Bowl LIX Preview: Key Matchup, Key Stat, Best Bet and Prediction.
