One game remains between us and the NFL offseason, and it’s for all the marbles. Super Bowl LIX is here, and either the Kansas City Chiefs will become the first team to three-peat in the Super Bowl era or the Philadelphia Eagles will avenge their loss to this same opponent two years ago. Patrick Mahomes will win his fourth ring or Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley will win their first. The Chiefs will take this historic run to an even higher level within the history of the league or the Eagles will claim a second championship in eight years.
Here at The MMQB, we have broken down plenty of angles around the game, from the plays on tape that could decide the game, to Barkley’s mentality, to scouting reports from the opponents that faced both teams this season, the importance of Joe Thuney’s versatility on the Chiefs’ offensive line to even the way the Eagles’ contingent of Italian-American coaches has affected their culture.
All that’s left now is to make our staff predictions.
Our pickers:
• Albert Breer, senior NFL reporter (X/Twitter)
• Conor Orr, senior writer (X/Twitter, BlueSky)
• Gilberto Manzano, staff writer (X/Twitter, BlueSky)
• Matt Verderame, staff writer (X/Twitter)
• Greg Bishop, senior writer (X/Twitter)
• Michael Rosenberg, senior writer (X/Twitter, BlueSky)
• Andrew Brandt, business of football columnist (X/Twitter)
• John Pluym, managing editor (X/Twitter)
• Mitch Goldich, senior editor (X/Twitter, BlueSky)
Albert Breer
Super Bowl: Chiefs 27, Eagles 23
MVP: Patrick Mahomes
Coming out of last season, I instituted a personal “no picking against the Chiefs in the playoffs” policy. It took me all of two playoff games to break it—predicting the Buffalo Bills to beat Kansas City (at Arrowhead, no less) in the AFC title game. Moral of the story: I’m dumb. But not dumb enough to step on that rake again. I think where there’s a contrast in scheme styles, Kansas City’s complexity against Philly’s simplicity, the Chiefs will seize their edge. This time, I’m going to trust they’ll take advantage of it. I’ll trust that Andy Reid and Matt Nagy will engineer matchups to get Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown running with the Philly safeties. I’ll trust that Mahomes and Travis Kelce can’t be stopped in critical situations. I’ll trust that the offensive line will be good enough. I’ll trust that Steve Spagnuolo will use Leo Chenal as a queen on the chess board in stopping the run, that Nick Bolton will handle Hurts as a scrambler, and that Trent McDuffie will cover DeVonta Smith in a way that’ll allow the Chiefs to throw more at A.J. Brown. More than anything, I’ll trust the team that took the baton from the New England Patriots as the dynasty that never dies in the biggest moments won’t succumb in the Superdome on Sunday. And if I’m wrong, I can deal with that, much easier than if I picked against them two times in a row.
Bold prediction: Chenal will be the Chiefs’ best defensive player, and the key to keeping Barkley in check. The more people I’ve talked to the past few days, the more Chenal’s name came up—as a Swiss Army knife of a front-seven player who can give Kansas City the equivalent of a five-man front with four down linemen on the field. His ability to set edges, get off blocks and chase will be important in Kansas City’s effort to pin Barkley in, limit his cutback lanes and force him to bounce runs. I’ll say Chenal will get double-digit tackles, and a nice nod on the podium from Mahomes as the quarterback collects another MVP trophy.
Conor Orr
Super Bowl: Eagles 31, Chiefs 28
MVP: Jalen Hurts
I wrote a deep dive into the Scranton-area background of Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, and one piece of game analysis from a former Scranton coaching rival got stuck in my brain: Fangio, unlike many of the coordinators that have faced Reid in the Super Bowl, will not get thrown off his spot. He will not be surprised by what he sees from Kansas City. And perhaps that’ll make the difference. Kansas City tends to walk the razor’s edge when it comes to winning games, but Philadelphia will limit time of possession (in theory) and, if one costly turnover breaks the Eagles’ way, be able to put a more insurmountable kind of distance between themselves and the Chiefs. At least in this imaginary world I’ve created. I think Hurts will score three total touchdowns, two on the ground, and Barkley will add a fourth.
Bold prediction: Kenneth Gainwell will have more total yards than Barkley. Despite Barkley having a solid game and a touchdown, Gainwell will break a massive catch and run that sets up one of Hurts’s touchdowns. This will follow a needless cutaway to the Taylor Swift suite, which will reveal the starlet having already gone down into the stadium’s bowels to prepare for a SURPRISE APPEARANCE IN THE HALFTIME SHOW.
Gilberto Manzano
Super Bowl: Chiefs 27, Eagles 24
MVP: Travis Kelce
On paper, the Eagles should have plenty of advantages, including with the headaches that Barkley will present on the field. But the Chiefs just continue to find ways to even the playing field, whether it’s Reid unleashing a never-before-seen game plan or a surprising performance from an older player in his second stint with the team. I accepted months ago that this Chiefs Super Bowl three-peat is inevitable, which was difficult for me because I’m the guy who recklessly picked seven new teams to make the playoffs and followed that by picking the Washington Commanders to win the Super Bowl back in October. But it’s time to put the Chiefs fatigue aside and just appreciate this epic run from Mahomes & Co.
And, yes, the referees help at times with evening the playing field, but the Chiefs’ opponents have had countless opportunities to knock out the champs and they usually end up beating themselves. Josh Allen had three timeouts, a two-minute warning and 3:33 left on the clock to either win it or send the game to overtime. Perhaps Hurts won’t miss his second opportunity after nearly beating the Chiefs in the Super Bowl two years ago, but it’s gotten to the point where I have to see it to believe it. Heck, I wouldn’t be surprised if DeAndre Hopkins generates 100 receiving yards and a pair of touchdowns against this stacked Philly secondary. Kansas City will likely find a way to make it work again to complete history Sunday.
Bold prediction: Perhaps my Hopkins hypothetical should be my bold prediction, but players no longer in their prime stepping up for the Chiefs stopped being surprising a long time ago. Let’s go with Jahan Dotson delivering a touchdown for the Eagles. Dotson, the Commanders’ 2022 first-round pick, has one catch in three playoff games. But he’ll find a way to contribute with all eyes on Barkley, Brown and Smith.
Matt Verderame
Super Bowl: Chiefs 27, Eagles 23
MVP: Patrick Mahomes
I’m not picking someone fun or edgy just to be different. I’m trying to be correct, and if the Chiefs win, this is going to be correct. Yes, Chris Jones is a great player, but he’s going against one of the best offensive lines in the sport. Yes, Kelce is a future first-ballot Hall of Famer and an all-time playoff performer, but Mahomes has a litany of weapons to target.
Ultimately, Mahomes is the obvious choice. If the Chiefs can protect up front, Mahomes is going to find Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, Worthy, Kelce and others. He’s going to run for first downs and potentially a touchdown or two, just like he did to help vanquish the Bills in the AFC championship game. Ultimately, he’s the greatest player of his generation, attempting to make history by becoming the quarterback of the first team to ever three-peat completely in the Super Bowl era. That’s tough to bet against.
Bold prediction: Xavier Worthy will have his first 100-yard receiving game. Worthy has come on down the stretch for Kansas City. In the AFC title game, he posted his first 100-yard game from scrimmage, catching six balls for 85 yards and a touchdown while rushing twice for another 16 yards. While Philadelphia has a superb secondary, look for the Chiefs to dial up some big plays for Worthy ... and hit on a few.
Greg Bishop
Super Bowl: Chiefs 24, Eagles 21
MVP: Nick Bolton
Here’s the logic: The Chiefs won 17 games this season in every which way except the most obvious, most predictable ones. Much of their edge in one-score games is owed to Mahomes, his ability to process football instantly and his elite vision in the pocket. But Kansas City wouldn’t be anywhere near that tally if not for an elite defense and role players, such as Nick Bolton or Chenal, who aren’t as impactful as Mahomes, necessarily, but who impact these seasons of triumph in significant, critical ways. Bolton is one of two K.C. defenders—alongside elite defensive tackle Chris Jones—who seems to always come up with a special play late in the postseason. It took Jones a few seasons and several playoff runs to assert his January/February dominance. The Chiefs wouldn’t have beaten the Eagles in Super Bowl LVII, though, without Bolton’s scoop-and-score of the one mistake Hurts made that evening, fumbling the ball. My predicted score is low. The Chiefs’ defense, in that case, will be paramount. Mahomes will be penalized in MVP voting for no more than the consistency of his greatness. Which aligns perfectly for Bolton to do something—a scoop-and-score, a suplex, a few million tackles—to cement this historic three-peat. (Maybe that should be Three-Pat. Just remember you heard it here first!)
Bold prediction: Maybe this isn’t as bold as it would have been two years ago, but, given what’s predicted above here, this bold(er) prediction focuses on Mahomes and his passing yards. He will have fewer than 200 against the Eagles, for several reasons. The most prominent: that Philadelphia D-line. I’d argue no one—like, in the NFL—has played better than Jalen Carter over the past month or two. I’d argue—not really out on a limb here—that what Fangio has done with that defense in this season is nothing short of heroic. Combine that with the Chiefs’ desire to keep Hurts, Barkley, Brown, Smith & Co. out of the end zone, and you have the perfect recipe for a Ball Control Super Bowl triumph from these Chiefs. I love the symmetry there, too. This historic run began with explosions, an offensive fireworks display that caught attention far beyond even the world of sports. Now, the Chiefs are borderline boring. They’re clinical. They’re efficient. They shop at Costco on the weekends. In order to make this kind of history, they had to be that, had to evolve into that. To do that, in this way, after the evolution—a better, more accurate script could not be written.
Michael Rosenberg
Super Bowl: Chiefs 27, Eagles 17
MVP: Patrick Mahomes
It’s easy to say, “Never pick against Mahomes in the Super Bowl,” but he did lose one, back in the 2020 season, to Tom Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That loss was not Mahomes’s fault; his offensive line was a mess, and he was scrambling almost from the moment he took the snap. I briefly wondered whether we could see something like that again this week. Mahomes was sacked 36 times this season, the most of his career, and Philly’s defense is arguably the best in the league. But Hurts was actually sacked more than Mahomes this year: 38 times in 15 regular-season games, and 11 more in the postseason. I know Hurts played well in the NFC championship game, and the Eagles put up 55 points, but let’s not get trapped into recency bias. The Commanders’ defense is not good, and only one of the Eagles’ first seven touchdown drives started inside their own 40-yard-line. Reid is a master game-planner generally, but especially when he has two weeks to prepare, and his defensive coordinator, Spagnuolo, will force Hurts to make difficult throws under duress. For me, it comes down to this: Do I have more faith in Mahomes against Philly’s defense, or Hurts against Kansas City’s? That’s an easy call. I’m not picking against Mahomes in the Super Bowl.
Bold prediction: Thanks to Spagnuolo’s ingenuity and Chris Jones’s all-time greatness, the Chiefs will stop the tush push three times. Afterward, reporters will ask Spagnuolo how he did it, but he will only take questions from SI’s Conor Orr, who has already established himself as the Robert Caro of one-yard-run journalism. Conor will then regale readers with a breakdown of Spagnuolo’s defensive play calls, which will be known, henceforth, as butt dials.
Andrew Brandt
Super Bowl: Eagles 31, Chiefs 16
MVP: Saquon Barkley
I have been on the Eagles for a while now, certainly since the playoffs started, as the team to beat in the NFL this season. As for this rematch from two years ago, I don’t know if the Chiefs are a better or a worse team than they were heading into Super Bowl LVII, but I do know the Eagles are a better team. They made the two biggest offseason acquisitions in the league this year—Fangio and Barkley. And they addressed what were their only weaknesses—cornerback and outside linebacker—with productive rookies and Zack Baun. Now I challenge anyone to find a weakness on that team; I can’t.
I know the Eagles can look almost disinterested at times, but in the end, talent rules. They are the most talented team in the league, and I’m not sure it’s close. That talent advantage, especially with offensive and defensive lines, will prove out in the Super Bowl. And, yes, I don’t think the game will be close. The Chiefs are the better story if they win, but they are not the best team in this game.
Bold prediction: I predict Mahomes will have one of the worst games of his career. It won’t just be a subpar game; it will be a downright poor game. I’m not sure he’s seen a defensive line like the one the Eagles have, and they will wreak havoc on the Chiefs’ line.
John Pluym
Super Bowl: Chiefs 31, Eagles 28
MVP: Patrick Mahomes
This matchup is all about the quarterback position, and Hurts is not on the same level as Mahomes. I expect Mahomes to make a play whenever the Chiefs need one, just like he did two years ago with his feet to put Philly away in the fourth quarter. I also think Kansas City’s offensive line will give Mahomes the time he needs to find open receivers, especially Worthy and Brown. I think both could be huge difference-makers in a close game, along with Kareem Hunt, who did just enough in the AFC championship to provide Kansas City with enough of a spark on the ground to keep the Bills’ front seven honest. Now let’s talk defense. I don’t think there’s any doubt Spagnuolo is one of the best ever to call a game on defense in the Super Bowl. Just ask the unbeaten Patriots from 2007. And Spags will get the job done against Barkley & Co. I expect we will see some exotic run blitzes along with a lot of eight- and nine-man fronts. So if Philly wins, it’ll have to be because of Hurts. And Hurts hasn’t been the same quarterback since sustaining a concussion a few weeks ago, along with a recent knee injury. You’d be foolish to bet against Mahomes and Reid.
Bold prediction: I’m going with Worthy scoring a pair of touchdowns, one on the ground and one through the air. And just for the fun of it, he will also add a two-point conversion. Who knows? Maybe it’ll be an octopus! Anyway, the first-round speedster has improved dramatically over the second half of the season, and I think Reid and Nagy will find ways to scheme him open. I love speed, and I think the Chiefs have more of it than the Eagles.
Mitch Goldich
Super Bowl: Chiefs 26, Eagles 25
MVP: Patrick Mahomes
I can see a world where the Eagles win this game. I can even see one where they pull away and take it comfortably, racking up time of possession as they play from ahead until Barkley breaks a long one in the second half. But if this game is close, I have too much confidence in the Chiefs making the right plays when they need them in crunch time. We’ve all seen that game play out too many times before.
I said before the season that I thought the Chiefs would wear down. I think winning back-to-back championships is among the hardest things to do in sports, and so I almost never predict the defending champion to come back and repeat. I felt especially strong about not picking a K.C. three-peat. I thought this team would wear down over the course of the season, a product of repeated lengthy playoff runs and getting every opponent’s best when they’ve all spent every waking hour obsessing over how to beat this team. But we have instead seen the opposite: Kansas City keeps getting stronger as the season goes along. I don’t know if they flipped a switch, or if they saved something during the regular season. But this team is going in the opposite direction I expected. That’s a good thing for the fans in red.
Barkley might break one. The Eagles might get a couple of crucial third-down sacks. A.J. Brown might make a monster play on a deep ball or DeVonta Smith could pull off some magic along the sideline. But I expect one truly pivotal play—like Hurts’s fumble that Bolton returned for a touchdown in Super Bowl LVII—to go Kansas City’s way. And I think the Chiefs will get whatever else they need on the edges.
Full staff picks
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Super Bowl LIX Predictions: MMQB Staff Picks for Eagles-Chiefs.
