Week 1 of the NFL season is almost always a dice roll. That sentiment probably goes tenfold when it comes to picking championship-caliber squads.
Picking Super Bowl contenders before seeing one meaningful snap can be a fruitless exercise. As tempting as it is, running back the top contenders from last season isn’t going to be as seamless as everyone believes (hopes?). So much changes in one NFL offseason, from roster turnover in free agency and adding impact playmakers in the draft to some established stars and difference-makers just getting flat-out old. It’s an unspoken rule, but NFL time may as well be measured in dog years: everything is on an accelerated clock, and you have less time to cherish the present than you think.
At the same time, star quarterbacks and great coaches provide a guiding compass. Few other professional sports leagues can boast continuity of the same heavyweights fighting it out near the top year after year like the NFL. That’s because this is a league built on top signal-callers and teams who don’t step on rakes in pivotal moments.
As Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season looms on the horizon, let’s take an early look at five teams that have justifiable expectations of winning Super Bowl 58 in February.
5
Buffalo Bills
They may not have a Super Bowl in their pocket yet, but there is nothing fundamentally wrong with these Bills. Sure, they could use a legit No. 2 pass target, but everything about this team screams another division title and another 11-13 wins. Why? They still have Josh Allen, the arguably second-best quarterback in the sport. They still have Sean McDermott, an objectively great coach. And Allen still throws to Stefon Diggs behind an underrated offensive line.
Losing Tremaine Edmunds will hurt Buffalo’s defense, but it’s not a death sentence. Adding Leonard Floyd to pair with a (healthy) Von Miller is a nightmare for opposing offenses to block. And even though it’s an aging secondary, I still trust Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, and Tre’Davious White more than most back-ends.
Buffalo’s long-awaited Lombardi breakthrough is coming any year now. It might even be in February 2024.
4
Kansas City Chiefs
I will always give the Chiefs the benefit of the doubt. As long as they have the best player in the history of football (Patrick Mahomes) throwing passes with Andy Reid calling the shots, they are a bona fide Super Bowl contender. Until the clock strikes zero and they have fewer points than the opposition in a playoff game, I will never count out the Big Red Machine.
That said, the defending champions are already making me concerned.
Their defensive talisman, Chris Jones, is holding out indefinitely. Travis Kelce has a hyperextended knee that may or may not keep him sidelined for an extended period. And Mahomes’ receiving corps is, on paper, the worst of his career. Knowing the Chiefs, they’ll start jelling around Thanksgiving and be running through the AFC like a buzzsaw in the second half of the season.
But, for the moment, that doesn’t feel like the safest prospect.
3
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are the rare conference champion that essentially gets to bring back the same roster. (If you weren’t already aware, general manager Howie Roseman is a team-building magician.)
Let’s look at the tale of the tape:
- Jalen Hurts, an MVP-caliber quarterback
- A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, two No. 1 receivers
- Dallas Goedert, an arguably top-five tight end
- Perhaps the league’s top offensive line
- A defense stacked with playmakers at every level (Haason Reddick, Nakobe Dean, Darius Slay) that amusingly added game-wreckers like Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith in the draft
The NFC isn’t a deep conference, leaving the Eagles another largely unimpeded path to a playoff berth and a lengthy January run. With another ticket to the NFL’s Big Dance, they actually might finish the job this time around.
2
Dallas Cowboys
I know, I know, I know.
The haunting specter of Mike McCarthy vomiting all over himself in a playoff game is a lot to overcome for any self-respecting team. But these Cowboys, more than most squads, are well-equipped to win in spite of their bumbling doofus head coach.
I don’t think there is a glaring flaw on either side of the ball for Dallas. All the Cowboys really had to do this offseason was find a legit WR2 and a legit CB2. They don’t get any better than a burner like Brandin Cooks and a late-stage Stephon Gilmore starting to play like he did in his New England heyday. This is another team seeking that one glorious breakthrough in February … with the arsenal to do it.
Dallas is going to cruise to another 12-13-win season. It might even unseat the Eagles as NFC East royalty. And when the winter rolls around, I’d be very comfortable rolling with the Cowboys’ sheer overwhelming talent over the other NFC powers.
1
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are battle-tested, playoff-proven, and have some of football’s best field-tilting weapons. And they can play any style necessary to win.
What’s not to like?
With Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and a revitalized offensive line, Cincinnati can hang with any offense in a shootout. If need be, thanks to Lou Anarumo’s brilliant defense (how is he NOT a head coach yet?), the Bengals can simply grind you into a fine paste and bully you in a rock fight, too.
Concerns about a somewhat inexperienced secondary are reasonable. But any time you can move on from meaningful contributor Eli Apple (yikes), it’s a net positive. Cincinnati is here to stay. And for the time being, it’s the best overall team in professional football.
