The Super Bowl straddles a fine line as a bettor. On one hand, sportsbooks have 22 weeks of data to parse while making their lines. On the other, no game on the schedule invites more first-time bettors, potentially skewing lines away from the sharp money out there.
That’s led to some increased focus on this week’s props. The most popular so far include Travis Kelce touchdowns and a 37-34 final score (that you absolutely should not bet). We’re not gonna touch either of those this week. Instead, we’re gonna lay low for a game without a ton of great bets on the docket.
That means just two official plays this week and a Dallas Goedert lean that provides good value. To be honest, I don’t 100 percent love them, but it’s the best I’ve got for Super Bowl 57.
Isiah Pacheco OVER 47.5 rushing yards. Pacheco left us high and dry last week, but he draws a more favorable matchup in the Super Bowl. The Bengals run defense ranked 14th in DVOA; the Eagles are 21st. Granted, that group improved over the season, but it still lags behind the passing offense. In a game where each side may opt to grind it out early, Pacheco could be on pace for 12 to 14 carries, even with Clyde Edwards-Helaire back in the lineup.
Jalen Hurts UNDER 240.5 passing yards. The Rhode Island Scumbag Lock of the Week ™ features Hurts under 120.5 yards in the first half. As worried as I am about jumping on one of his recs come playoff time, I can see it. The Hurts we’ve seen in the playoffs hasn’t been as dynamic downfield as the one who lit up the NFL prior to a shoulder sprain. Maybe that’s just a function of blowout wins, but it’s a lingering concern.
Last week: 3-3 (.500)
Regular season record: 83-40 (.675)
Postseason record: 12-9 (.571)
Season to date: 95-49 (.660)
My official leans (not plays) for Super Bowl 57
This is the bet I like, but not enough to make an official recommendation on.
- Dallas Goedert anytime touchdown (+1100). It’s a longshot compared to most of my regular props, but the Chiefs gave up the fifth-most touchdowns to tight ends in the regular season — nine in 17 games. That gives the Dirt God roughly a coin toss shot at paying off at 11 times your investment.
Last week: 2-1 (.667)
Regular season record: 42-17 (.712)
Postseason record: 6-5 (.545)
Season to date: 93-48 (.660)
