If Rishi Sunak sticks with his “working assumption” of an autumn election, it will be fought against the backdrop of a bitter US presidential race and will be the first time since 1964 that voters on both sides of the Atlantic have gone to the polls in parallel.
Many UK voters pay scant attention to the ins and outs of politics on this side of the Atlantic, let alone in the US. But elections experts have said Donald Trump’s extraordinary capacity for sucking in the world’s attention could help to shape the UK race in a number of ways.
James Johnson, of JL partners, who was head of polling for Theresa May and is now based in the US, says a Trump-Biden showdown – assuming Trump is the Republican candidate – will underline the importance of a characteristic that has become increasingly key to shaping voters’ perceptions: leadership strength.
Against the backdrop of geopolitical instability and polarised politics, he said “it’s much more important in 2024 than it was in potentially 2010, 2015: strength, and this sense of ‘will you stand up for the country?’ I think the Trump thing makes that more so, because it becomes, ‘well, how are you going to handle this guy?’”
Johnson says neither Sunak nor Keir Starmer are regarded as strong by voters – he mentions a recent focus group in which Sunak was described as “limp”.
Both are therefore likely to face versions of the “are you tough enough?” question famously put to Ed Miliband in 2015, with a not entirely convincing “hell yes!” in response – but they will also have to tackle the more specific issue of how they would work with a Trump presidency 2.0.
That could present more hazards for Starmer, whose voter base may not want to hear the statesmanlike answer that a Labour government would work to build bridges with the White House. The cut and thrust of the US race may also bleed into the framing of issues here in the UK, particularly when there are common themes at stake.
Migration is likely to play strongly on both sides of the Atlantic, for example, with both Trump and Sunak keen to emphasise their tough credentials. But Sunak may not want to be drawn into echoing Trump’s more extreme and dangerous rhetoric, with Trump having claimed in a speech in December that migrants were “poisoning the blood of our country”.
With the two races running simultaneously, candidates in the UK are likely to be pressed for a response to whatever is Trump’s most recent, most outrageous pronouncement. That may be particularly challenging for Sunak, who wants to claim he will “stop the boats” without alienating too many small-c Conservative voters in blue wall seats where the Liberal Democrats are snapping at the Tories’ heels.
“Trump polarises the argument so much, it makes those more culturally conservative positions quite risky,” says Johnson.
Prof Rob Ford, an elections expert at the thinktank UK in a Changing Europe, agrees. “You might think: ‘Trump’s going to say things about immigration, maybe that’s good for Sunak’ – but let’s think about the kinds of things he’s likely to say. It’s not necessarily the kind of dividing line Sunak wants to be seeing.”
That could be all the more problematic for the Tories, given the rising prominence of Richard Tice’s rightwing populist Reform party, which will have no such scruples.
Given Trump’s tendency to upend the media narrative, there will also be the threat that parties’ carefully calibrated campaign plans are smashed by big news from across the pond. “All the parties are obsessed with their grids, and Donald Trump’s ability to say extraordinarily attention-grabbing things which then dominate the headlines will be a kind of permanent headache,” said Ford.
During the 2019 general election, in a campaign so tightly controlled that Boris Johnson retreated to a fridge rather than face an unscheduled TV interview, the anxious Tories had to negotiate the Trump minefield as the pugnacious president attended a Nato summit in the UK.
Trump had previously been highly complimentary about Johnson, on one occasion calling him Britain’s Trump, and Johnson had once played up the pair’s close relationship. But by 2019, deep into the chaotic Trump presidency, CCHQ did not see his support as an electoral asset.
Miraculously, Trump kept his views on the forthcoming election to himself during the 48-hour visit – though the British prime minister was forced to play down Nato divisions after a sulky Trump criticised Justin Trudeau, the Canadian prime minister, and called off his close-of-summit press conference to fly home early.
Five years on, Trump is unlikely to be jetting into the UK as Sunak and Starmer square up, but his destabilising influence may still be felt.
