Downing Street expected a backlash after Rishi Sunak announced that he was pushing back some of the government’s key commitments for reaching net zero; in fact they wanted it.
“The purpose of the speech was to create dividing lines with Labour,” said a No 10 insider. “The fight is the point.” What they didn’t expect was for the speech to be leaked 72 hours early and chaos to ensue.
When the BBC broke the story on its 6pm news bulletin on Tuesday, “sheer bloody panic” broke out in No 10 at the furious response from some businesses, environmental groups and some high-profile green-minded Tories.
But despite the initial explosive response, after Sunak’s speech several Tory MPs said they felt “quite comfortable” with the changes. “I don’t know why people were so irate,” said one. “The net zero 2050 target hasn’t changed. We’ll still get there.”
They welcomed what they described as Sunak’s “grownup” approach to the issue. “People like politicians with principles and we haven’t had one leading the party for a while,” they said.
A second said the slowing down of the government’s commitments on boilers and insulation had gone down “reasonably well” with their constituents, and they thought that the consumer focus would go down well with key voters who had gone off the Tories.
Aides have spent weeks plotting the prime minister’s reset, which began with Wednesday’s speech and will continue with a series of policy announcements in the weeks to come.
One senior Conservative said: “The rest of these are going to be just as ambitious as what we set out this week.” Another added: “Rishi has spent the last year tidying up other people’s mess so he hasn’t been able to be the prime minister he wanted to be until now.”
But Tory MPs are divided on whether the prime minister’s new approach will be successful. “I’m sceptical that the big ideas Rishi is going to announce are actually going to be that big for people in the real world. There’s no political space for it,” said one.
Government sources said they were happy about the way in which the U-turns were received, especially after the prime minister’s appearance on the BBC’s Today programme on Thursday morning. “The feeling is good because we’ve done the right thing,” said one.
And despite Sunak’s insistence that his speech was about policy and not politics, his advisers acknowledge the importance of political concerns in shaping what he said.
“There’s an election round the corner so obviously that’s his focus,” said one Tory insider.
“But if he’d taken over straight after Boris, rather than having to tidy up after Liz, we’d have heard about all of this a year ago. It’s been on the cards for a while.”
Others are less convinced that the political strategy will work. “If it’s supposed to be a dividing line with Labour, it’s not a very effective one,” said one MP. “The explosive response shows that it’s going to be tough for us to handle if we decide to make an issue of it.”
Beneath the surface in Downing Street there is some unease about how the announcement was handled, especially given the strength of the business backlash.
The chair of Ford UK warned the reversal would undermine the government’s “ambition, commitment and consistency”, while the chief executive of the energy supplier E.On said it risked leaving people “living in cold and draughty homes”.
Conservative officials believe the response would have been more muted had companies waited until they had heard the prime minister’s speech before responding.
“The leak meant we couldn’t manage the reaction,” said one Sunak ally. “I don’t think Ford UK would have put out that statement if they had heard the speech first.”
But in fact the business reaction underlined a split that already existed in Downing Street between those who believe the prime minister should present himself as sober and prime ministerial and those who want him to take a more combative tone, even if it alienates some natural allies.
“If you’re going to make a logical argument for doing this, stick with that, don’t be political,” one Tory insider said. One person close to the prime minister added: “In reality these changes were a tidying-up exercise. But people get very emotional about climate issues.”
Several sources told the Guardian that Sunak personally insisted that he wanted “change” to be the theme of the policy reset more broadly. He said the word 31 times during Wednesday afternoon, more than almost any other in the speech.
One Conservative said: “He knows that if the next election is Labour versus the Tories, Labour wins. If it is change versus the Tories, Labour wins. If it is change with them or change with us, we might just stand a chance.”
Not all Tory MPs are won over by the strategy, given the length of time their party has been in office. “It’s very hard to be the voice of change when you’ve been in power for 13 years,” said one.
